Andy newton
Andy Newton looks at the winning numbers around the Coral Eclipse
Derby horses can set the pace at Sandown Park
2017 ECLIPSE STAKES
As we move into July, and the heart of the summer months,there is bundles more to look forward too.Yes, we’ve already seen four of the five English Classics, plus got through another Royal Ascot, but July is another bumper month of top-class Flat festivals.
The Newmarket July Festival and the King George Meeting at Ascot are always crackers, while over in Ireland we’ve got the Irish Oaks and Derby to take in, but the race I’m going to focus on in this edition is the Coral-Eclipse from Sandown.
This year’s race is run slightly later than normal (Sat July 8), which means the horses and trainers targeting the 1m2f Group One will have a little bit longer to prepare and that’s worth noting. It goes without saying that at the time of writing the final runners have not been confirmed, but nearer the race and once we do know the locked-in entries we’ll be able to apply several key trends.
It’s also a contest that gives us a chance to see just how good this season’s Classic generation are as the top-class middle distance 3 year-olds can run against the older horses for the first time at this level.
Over the last two years we’ve seen 3-year-olds win the race,but since 2006 (11 runnings) it’s worth noting that 8 winners have been aged 4 or 5.
Golden Horn and Sea The Stars were the last Derby winners to land the race in the same season so we’ll have to see if the 2017 Derby hero – Wings Of Eagles – takes his chance, but the horses that finished second (Cliffs Of Moher), third (Cracksman) and fourth (Eminent) at Epsom do figure prominently in the betting. With 4 of the last 15 Eclipse winners having contested that season’s Derby then it’s also been a fair guide in recent years.
ALL of the last 15 Eclipse winners were aged 5 or younger – while did you know that we’ve only had winner aged older than 5 win the race, and that came in the first ever running back in 1886!
Therefore, with that in mind, I think we can safely rule-out any 6-year-olds that line-up this year. The next key trend to note is that 13 of the last 15 winners were previous Group One winners and had already run twice that season.
Twelve of the last 15 winners had run between 2 and 3 times that campaign to suggest the race-fit horses are the ones to focus on, while it’s been a decent contest for the favourites with 12 of the last 15 placed and 7 of the last 15 (47%) market leaders winning.
The Irish have won 5 of the last 15 renewals, with Aidan O’Brien recording four of those successes. His most recent win came in 2011, so the Ballydoyle team are on a slight drought with a five year baron-spell.
The final positive profile to look for in the final runners are being placed in their most-recent race and also have horses that raced at Royal Ascot last time out on your side – 10 of the last 15 winners fitted both trends.
That’s your lot! Plenty to go on once we know the final runners and hopefully these trends will be of help in your quest to find this year’s horse that Eclipses his rivals.
Eclipse Stakes PastWinners
2016 – Hawkbill (6/1) 2015 – Golden Horn (4/9 fav) 2014 – Mukhadram (14/1) 2013 – Al Kazeem (15/8 fav) 2012 – Nathaniel (7/2) 2011 – SoYou Think (4/11 fav) 2010 - Twice Over (13/8 fav) 2009 – Sea The Stars (4/7 fav) 2008 – Mount Nelson (7/2) 2007 – Notnowcato (7/1) 2006 – David Junior (9/4)
2005 – Oratorio (12/1) 2004 – Refuse To Bend (15/2) 2003 – Falbrav (8/1) 2002 – HawkWing (8/15 fav)
Eclipse Stakes Betting Trends
15/15 –Won by a horse aged 5 or younger 13/15 –Won by a Group One winner 13/15 – Had at least 2 runs that season 12/15 – Raced between 2 and 3 times that season 12/15 – Placed favourites 10/15 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out 10/15 – Placed in their last race 7/15 – Favourites that won 5/15 – Won by an Irish-trained horse 4/15 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien 4/15 – Raced in the Epsom Derby 4 of the last 10 winners won last time out 2 of the last 8 Derby winners went on to win The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 9/2
Other Eclipse Stakes Trainer Facts
Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2011,2008, 2005,2002 & 2000 Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2007, 2001, 1997, 1994 & 1993 Godolphin-owned horses have won the race in 2004, 1998, 1996, 1995 & 2016