Eddie wood

Eddie revisits Nick Mordin’s book on how to win

Over the last few months, I have taken a new look at the way I assemble statistics for my methods and systems. I was prompted by Nick Mordin’s article in the June 28,1997 edition of the defunct Sporting Life Weekender. He referred to four comments that occasionally appear in Raceform Form Books: “Eased, hung, pulled hard and rallied.” I was drawn to his observations and the profitable systems he generated around them. From 101 bets, 28 had won and returned over £50 to a £1 level stake.

I also look very carefully at the strikerate to achieve similar profits. For many years, I have used 22% as the minimum value I accept.

I now use 33% and, in some methods, this is extremely profitable.The strike-rate for Mordin’s system was a very credible 27.7%.My systems were related to horses that “hung” and “rallied” in their races and, unlike Mordin, I operated in all race Classes.

Mordin also mentions that horses running “well” were the subject of his system. He gave his definition of running well as “the horse should finish within six lengths per mile of the winner.” For example, at a mile-and-a-half a horse should have finished within nine lengths of the winner, at six furlongs it should finish within fourand-a-half lengths and so on.

For me, the key of Mordin’s article lies in his belief that Form Book comments should not be used systematically in lower-Class races. He also stated that his system was restricted to qualifiers in Group races only.

While I agree that Group races feature the very best horses, I believe that that my own revised methods should include Listed races and even races of Class 2 status.

Mordin made further revelations by stating that many low-Class races are won by horses with a greater edge over their rivals than the victors of top-class races.He went on to say that the best way to approach lower grade races was to use the individual form of each horse and that if one horse seems to have a big edge it is probably worth backing.

Mordin was really alluding to the fact that the ability of individual horses in high-class races was within a limited range and therefore the edge that one often encounters in lower grade races was not present.

I remember reading this in Mordin’s 1992 book Betting For A Living. I internalised and used his message in my approach to winner finding and I intend to revisit this book soon. I am particularly interested in his thoughts on the equipment that a racehorse sometimes carries. It is obvious that a horse’s behaviour and physical appearance are not the only visible clues to how it is going to perform on any given race day. The equipment that horses wear can give valuable insights into how its performance may be enhanced or otherwise.

In his book, Mordin states that bandages, blinkers, boots, tongue-ties and other equipment can have a significant effect. I have always agreed with this and I intend to look at every piece of equipment from a performance point of view. I shall be compiling databases relevant to each piece of equipment and I shall refer to Mordin’s comments and research.We will be able to evaluate what is the position now relative to the years that Mordin used for his research.

I will be starting with blinkers. I understand that the figures Mordin produced on blinkers also included visors as he got his information from the excellent publication Computer Racing Form. This was published by John Whitley of Racing Research.

My study will separate these two visible inhibitors and I will initially focus on horses wearing blinkers only. I shall look at the task differently to Mordin as I will include every race that the horse has contested both with and without blinkers from the first time it wears them until its last race.

For this research, I will initially use the year 2016. The available data in respect to blinkers in the National Hunt season is virtually non-existent. I intend to put this right. Once I have evaluated the Flat race scene which will include All-Weather races, I will concentrate on the National Hunt scenario for the 2016/2017 season.

I agree that clear edges normally do not exist in high-class races and I abandoned speed ratings for this reason. If you analyse the speed ratings of three top compilers, you will discover that in most races their ratings show a group of horses at a similar level.

Naturally, this research will be ongoing and will be supplemented by my work on the effect of altitude on a horse’s performance.

In next month’s article, I shall be able to give you the trainer altitude groupings relative to all racecourses. Until then take care and good investing.