Irish Racing
Tony Keenan casts his eye over the Classic action at The Curragh — and the rest of July’s highlights
Tony Keenan casts his eye over the Classic action at the Curragh
To figure out the winner of the Irish Derby at the Curragh on July 1 one has to try to make sense out of the beautiful chaos that was the English equivalent. Eighteen horses went to post for that race, a field size more akin to Churchill Downs than Epsom, and there was a lot going on; it needed a number of replays to draw any conclusions from the race.That’s the sort of difficult conundrum that some punters will give up on all too quickly but that difficulty can produce betting value as some of those in the market have not been willing to dig deeply enough.
One feature of the three Group 1s at the Epsom meeting was how poorly some of the runners handled the course but one horse that seemed totally at home was the Derby winnerWings Of Eagles which is a reason why he may not back the form up at a more conventional track. When we couple that with the general surprise at his win from connections post-race – and this is an operation that tends to get their colts pretty right in terms of pecking order – further doubts start creeping in. Nor is his overall profile convincing;this is a horse that has won twice in six starts and returned starting prices of 7/1, 5/2, 10/1, 33/1, 8/1 and famously 40/1; Ballydoyle get them wrong now and then but rarely to such a degree. He was the best horse on the day at Epsom which is backed up by sectional times and he did meet some trouble in running but I doubt he’ll prove the best in time.
With Cliffs Of Moher and Eminent both set for the Eclipse at Sandown, CRACKSMAN could be the one for the Curragh.He missed his intended prep for Epsom in the Dante and was having only his third run last time and that inexperience told as he didn’t travel before finishing out the race well. John Gosden has an excellent record with his runners in Ireland and while he isn’t Golden Horn, he could be good enough.There’s a case to be made that Douglas Macarthur can be rated better than the form having been used to set the pace but sectionals suggest his upgrade would only leave him on the tail of the placed horses and the biggest danger could beWALDGIEST.
His second in the Prix du Jockey Club is another example of a race where the pace has been read wrong in places and while the winner Brametot has been praised for coming off a slow gallop,the opposite was true and Waldgiest was actually disadvantaged by racing closer to the front.The extra trip will suit him too but this is an open race and there is no reason why recent Irish winners like Grandee and Haripour wouldn’t turn up.
BEST OF THE REST
The Railway Stakes is the big juvenile race over Derby Weekend and it is a race Aidan O’Brien seems to have lost interest in; he has won just one of the last seven renewals having won it in nine of the ten years previous.He seems more inclined to go to Ascot rather than the Curragh with his best two-year-olds at this point of the year which could leave the way clear for Gordon Elliott and Jim Bolger. That Gordon Elliott would even have a runner a Group race for juveniles was scarcely believable at the start of the last year but the Nick Bradley Racing Club have sent him some decent prospects in BECKFORD and Monkeylou.
I was initially disappointed that neither of that pair was going to Royal Ascot but Elliott seems to be playing the long game and Beckford looks the obvious one at this point with Monkeylou needing to be supplemented. Jim Bolger started quietly with his juveniles but a pair of winners at the early June weekend fixture at the Curragh suggested things are on the turn with Verbal Dexterity in particular looking something out of the ordinary.Neither that
one nor Strike For Freedom are entered here however but both are worth keeping an eye on.
Some of the highly-rated fillies in the Pretty Polly Stakes over 1m2f have questions to answer at the moment; Journey seems better over further and may be aiming at later in the season, So Mi Dar has had muscle problems while this trip is shorter than ideal for Zhukova with the ground another imponderable with her. Rhododendron is an obvious one from the three-year-olds but may not run after bursting a blood vessel in the Prix Diane; that said,Aidan O’Brien is often aggressive about running his fillies. She does get beaten a lot however and has a reputation that outstrips her achievements a little so this might come down to QUEEN’S TRUST and SOMEHOW.
Queen’s Trust won at the Breeders’Cup last autumn with an impressive turn-offoot and a slow gallop in the Middleton at York on return didn’t show her to best effect; she is better than that. Somehow has had plenty of racing lately but is thriving on it and was a touch unlucky when runner-up in the Tattersalls Gold Cup.
The final major Group race over Derby Weekend is the Curragh Cup and it will be interesting to see what Aidan O’Brien opts to run; Order Of St George made his seasonal return here in 2015 before going on to much bigger things. Willie Mullins is another trainer that has strength in this division andWicklow Brave is an interesting entry though the trainer does seem to prefer to run his stayers in the UK where there is a more extensive programme. With the lack of clarity around what O’Brien and Mullins may run, GRANDEE for Jessica Harrington is the early pick.He has improved for going up in distance and showed battling qualities to win a reasonable race at Leopardstown last time.
ENABLE LOOKS HARD TO BEAT
The Oaks at Epsom was a coronation for ENABLE and she is unopposable at the Curragh on July 15.I am not alone in thinking she’d have won the Derby itself with an allowance as she was brilliant on the clock and looked real twelve furlong with the promise of more to come in time. There are some other interesting entries in the Curragh Oaks like Bengala, Black Ruby and Astronomy’s Choice but they are all just running for second should a peakform Enable show up.
With the rest of Oaks weekend hard to get a handle on at this stage, I’ll conclude with a few horses from lower grade races that could worth following through the summer.Long-time readers will know that Ger Lyons is a trainer I hold in high esteem and he is having an excellent season again in 2017, so much so that he may even challenge the established order ofWeld and Bolger to come second in the trainers’ championship. Sheer weight of numbers may eventually hold him back but there is no shortage of quality in the yard and few are better at placing their horses.
His Brendan Brackan has been an early star this season, winning the Lincoln and Glencairn Stakes already, but it is the runner-up from the latter race, his stablemate ELUSIVE HEIGHTS, that is more interesting on the drying ground of the summer.He was having his first run of the season at Leopardstown on the softest ground he’d ever raced on and shaped well in coming from rear, doing best of those held up and a listed win at least should be upcoming.
Adrian Keatley sent out a classic winner in Jet Setting last year but has found things harder this season, his horses not right early on when he was advised to back off them by the vets and give them time.The yard has swung into form lately though and DUCHESS OF FRANCE looked a handicapper that could win again when she landed a competitive fillies-only event at the Curragh.Despite being keen early, she finished out her race well and the overall time suggested she will remain well-treated off a revised mark of 83.
Another Keatley horse to catch the eye on the same Curragh card was ZEFTAN.He was having his first run of the season and came from rear in a slowly-run race, not helped by ceding ground racing out wide on the turn.Though an eight-year-old,he’s been relatively lightly-raced in recent years and is on a rating he can win off.
DODGYBINGO is less obvious for a flat race having not run on the level since last July but he has progressed well over hurdles in the interim and the handicapper has taken a real chance in dropping him to 63 from a high of 75;he has actually won of the latter mark albeit in a weak race. He was entered on the flat on a Leopardstown Thursday evening card recently and was well-backed before being taken out because the ground had softened so is one to watch out for on a fast surface.
Another jumper of note that has recently reverted to the flat is TIGRIS RIVER and he looked good in winning a two-mile handicap at the Curragh last time for the in-form Joseph O’Brien yard. He remains unexposed on the flat after just six runs and with his high level of hurdles form (rated 138 in that sphere) there could be more to come.The two-mile handicap for amateur riders on the opening night of Galway seems a suitable target.