ANDY NEWTON
Andy Newton says the draw can play a big part in the Cesarewitch
Andy explains how the draw can play a big part in Cesarewitch
Next month I’ll be getting stuck back into the hedge-hoppers as the National Hunt season kicks into gear, but before that we’ve still some decent Flat turf action to take care of this month.
We’ve Champions Day at Ascot on Saturday October 21st,but we’ve also the second leg of the Autumn Double at Newmarket with their two-day meeting (October 13th-14th) having some top end-of-season races – including the ultracompetitive Cesarewitch Handicap.
Run over 2m2f,the Cesarewitch is one of the big handicap betting races on the calendar and is always a favourite with punters and bookmakers. A race also steeped in history so that means bundles of key trends and that means we should be able to whittle down the big field to find the horses with the best profiles of past winners.
So, let’s get cracking - when trying to narrow down the runners a decent place to begin is the age of each horse. Runners aged 4 or older have won 14 of the last 15 renewals with Darley Sun (2009) being the only 3 year-old to win since 1999. Last year we saw a successful 4 year-old (Sweet Selection), but actually 10 of the last 15 winners were aged 5+, so really if we want history on our side then we should be ruling out 3 and 4 year-olds.
Next is to find runners that were in action within the last 2 months – 12 of the last 15 tick this particular trend, while don’t be too worried if your fancy is towards the middle (or end) of the betting market – since the year 2000,14 of those 17 winners returned a double-figure price. Plus, we’ve even had two 50/1 winners, including Grumeti a few years back, and two 66/1 returns in the last 9 runnings!
Sticking with the betting side of the trends - we’ve also only seen two winning favourites take this prize since 1993, further underlining just how much the bookies adore this competitive race, but, that said, the market leaders do have an okay recent record of being placed (top 4) – 7 of the last 15.
The weight carried is the next thing to look at as a massive 12 of the last 15 winners carried 9-1 or less, while heading here off the back of a good recent run is an obvious plus, but this is also supported with 10 of the last 15 winners finishing fourth or better last time out.
Despite being run over 2m2f the draw has surprisingly played a part too with 9 of the last 15 winners (60%) coming from stalls 12 or lower – suggesting that having a good early position,plus saving ground and energy,is another advantage over this trip. Also, pay close attention to the horse in stall 1 as three of the last 15 (20%) have been successful!
Horses that raced at Ascot, Chester or Doncaster last time out have won 8 of the last 15 renewals – a trend that last year’s winner,Sweet Selection, ticked, while 7 of the last 14 winners had previous experi- ence at the Newmarket (Rowley Mile) track.
Finally,being run over one of the longer trips on the flat then it’s a race that often attracts trainers that are more well-known for their National Hunt runners. 7 of the last 15 winners back this up with Philip Hobbs and Nicky Henderson being the most successful in recent years – with Hobbs winning it in 2006 and 2014, while Henderson took the honours in 2003 and 2008. Alan King is another to note, having won the race in 2015 with Grumeti at a stonking 50/1.
Good Luck!
Recent Cesarewitch HandicapWinners
2016 – Sweet Selection (7/1) 2015 – Grumeti (50/1) 2014 – Big Easy (10/1) 2013 – Scatter Dice (66/1) 2012 – Aaim To Prosper (66/1) 2011 – Never Can Tell (25/1) 2010 – Aaim To Prosper (16/1) 2009 – Darley Sun (9/2 fav) 2008 – Caracciola (50/1)
2007 – Leg Spinner (14/1) 2006 – Detroit City (9/2 fav) 2005 – Sergeant Cecil (10/1) 2004 – Contact Dancer (16/1) 2003 – Landing Light (12/1) 2002 – Miss Fara (12/1)
Cesarewitch Handicap BettingTrends
14/15 – Aged 4 or older 12/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting 12/15 – Had won over at least 1m6f on the flat before 12/15 – Had run within the last 2 months 12/15 – Carried 9-1 or less 11/15 – Had 3 or more previous flat runs that season 10/15 – Finished 4th or better last time out 10/15 – Aged 5 or older 9/15 – Drawn in stall 12 or lower 9/15 –Winning distance – 1 length or less 9/15 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before 9/15 – Had won 4 or more times on the flat before 8/15 – Ran at either Ascot,Chester or Doncaster last time out 8/15 – Had run at the track before 7/15 – The first three home ALL returned a double-figure price 7/15 – Placed favourites 7/15 –Won by a NH trainer 4/15 –Winning mares 3/15 – Winners from stall 1 2/15 – Winning favourites 2/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson 2/15 – Won last time out The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 24/1 Just 2 winning favourites since 1993.