speed figures
Nicky Henderson has a big call to make over his star’s Cheltenham assignment, says Mike Francis
Mike Francis takes his stopwatch to the races
It will come as little surprise to see ALTIOR topping our speed figure charts this month. His impressive effort at Kempton on December 27 saw him earn a 161 which is a full 9lb ahead of any other chase performance in recent weeks.
It was interesting to hear Nicky Henderson talk about finally stepping the superstar up from 2m at some point soon and he won this race like a horse crying out for a longer trip.
It’s not an easy call for the champion trainer who knows another Queen Mother Champion Chase is there for the taking but the Gold Cup picture looks pretty murky this year and he would appear to have a massive chance — if he stays.
That’s still a big if and Henderson is likely to stick with what he knows and winning another 2m crown is prestigious enough.
MASTER DINO was ruled out of the Festival after his impressive win at Plumpton with a figure of 152 that would have put him right in the Arkle picture.
Let’s hope he comes back next season as his Grade 1 form over hurdles can take him a long way as a chaser.
Looking down the chasing list, CLAN DES OBEAUX clocked a reasonable 139 in winning the King George on Boxing Day.
Paul Nicholls’ seven-year-old has had a stop-start career and that was just his fourth run and first win since winning in November 2017.
He has improved since stepping up to 3m and he kept on strongly, suggesting that he may see out the Cheltenham Gold Cup distance.
You can still get 10-1 about his chances for the big race, with Native River and Presenting Percy heading the market at around 9-2.
Do they have twice as much chance of winning the Blue Riband? It wouldn’t appear so on form and that doublefigure price looks fair.
Another runner that put himself right into the Gold Cup picture is KEMBOY who seemed to have run a better race than Clan Des Obeaux when winning at Leopardstown on December 28.
He’s another horse who has been quietly improving without anybody getting too excited. He was labelled a mudlark after winning a Limerick Grade 3 in April and there was plenty of cut in the ground again when when scoring at the Punchestown Festival.
But both wins this season have come in much quicker conditions. He started with a convincing success at Clonmel in November before leaving even that good form behind at Leopardstown.
He missed the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury because bad weather stopped him travelling and that may be a good thing as he routed a quality field when winning the Grade 1 Savills (Lexus) Chase.
Willie Mullins’ improver was on the bridle for most of the race and ran right away from his rivals to score by an easy seven lengths.
Having just turned seven, there should be more to come and he looks another solid bet for Cheltenham at around the 15-2 mark.
HURDLERS
You don’t get a lot of 3m hurdles to make figures from but it appears that the form of the JLT Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot on December 22 was rock solid.
PAISLEY PARK came home first for a 152 but West Approach and chaser Top Notch — who has won a big race since over the bigger obstacles — also clocked big numbers.
Assuming the stopwatch was working properly, it’s clearly a race to follow right down to The Mighty Don and Soul Emotion who came home fourth and fifth.
Paisley Park is 12-1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle at the Festival and, while his form looks a little short of Penhill and Supasundae, he looks more than capable of running into the frame.
AUX PTITS SOINS is 25s for the Stayers’ after winning a Cheltenham on New Year’s Day for which he picked up a rating of 139.
That’s a long way short of the rating required for that Grade 1 but he is capable of winning over 3m or so if his sights are slightly lowered. He has been difficult to keep on the track so has relatively few miles on the clock.
BUVEUR D’AIR was around 10lb below his usual form on the speed figures when beaten at Kempton on Boxing Day clocking 138.
It was his first defeat since the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle in 2016 and is probably no more than a slight blip. That said, he did make a pretty punishing mistake when the pace quickened which he wouldn’t want to repeat at Cheltenham.
APPLE’S JADE was 6lb short of Buveur D’Air even in defeat when winning at Leopardstown on December 28. That was because of the ease of the victory more than the form looking weak and it would be interesting to see her in the Champion Hurdle.
It’s a shame that’s not likely as she has a much “easier” assignment in the Mares’ Hurdle for which she is an 11-10 shot.
Away from the bigger tracks, ADMIRAL BARRATRY put up one of the best performances of the season on the clock by a novice.
He was making his first start for Lucy Wadham at Huntingdon on Boxing Day and didn’t have to hit top gear to win by more than three lengths.
The handicapper has been watching but he is capable of taking another step forward when returning to handicap level.