eddie wood
All-Weather courses by Eddie Wood
In search of winners on all-weather courses
The first part of this series received high praise from several of you and I thank you for your comments. Two of you have started to use the contents with some success and I believe that the second part of this series will also lead to profit.
It covers the All-Weather courses and is naturally shorter than last month’s article. This centred not only on the profitability levels of certain trainers, but also their charges’ strikerate in particular race categories at specific Great British racecourses. We selected trainers who achieved a minimum strike-rate of 35% in all qualifying race categories. A further caveat was that the number of winners in each qualifying race category was five or more. This represented one winner for every year we researched from 2013 to 2018.
When applying this criterion to the All-Weather discipline, one would receive a comparatively low number of qualifiers. Therefore, we decided to reduce our strike-rate benchmark figure to 30% for the All-Weather courses.
You will note that 12 trainers attained excellent strike-rates in our table. I was not surprised to see Ralph Beckett achieving the highest figure at 62.50% with five winners from eight runners. He is a brilliant trainer and you should certainly follow him in the 2yo Handicap category at Lingfield.
Fundamentally, trainers target certain race categories at particular racecourses; whether that is in the AllWeather, Flat or National Hunt discipline. This gives us a golden opportunity in many respects, particularly when two or more trainers are listed in the same race category at the same course. For example, John Gosden and Saeed bin Suroor achieved a respectable 34.60% and 46.70% strike-rate in the 4yo+ Handicap category at Chelmsford. One could quite easily back both trainers’ representatives in any appropriate race. I have not done the full research on this, but I am fairly confident that your profitability levels would increase by using this strategy.
We have a similar situation at Newcastle with John Gosden and Hugo Palmer’s 2yo non-Handicappers. I urge you to seriously take this concept aboard. If you are backing horses to win, I am mindful that you will lose a point unless it is a dead-heat. However, I do not mind if I get the winner at the specified odds, particularly in Handicaps where enhanced starting prices (SPs) are usually present vis a vi nonHandicaps.
You should also note trainers who appear three times or more in our table. They are Charlie Appleby, John Gosden and Saeed Bin Suroor. The modus operandi of most trainers remains constant from season to season and it is quite likely that if we compiled a table next year, the majority of these trainers would re-appear. At strike-rates of 30% or more, you are bound to achieve a positive profitability level.
Next month, we will provide the table for the Flat in excellent time prior to the start of the new season. Continue your good investments and always remember that consistent profitability is the key to financial success in this game.