andy newton
Andy Newton looks at the Lincoln Handicap
Trends for the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster
With the Cheltenham Festival dominating March, some of the other big races in the month can often get overlooked, including the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster, which is run on March 30.
This one-mile race also gets us going again on the turf for Flat racing fans and with bundles of history it’s a contest with plenty of key trends to help punters.
We can expect 20+ runners to be lining-up but once we know the final entries (March 28) the key stats will give us a chance to whittle down the field to a more manageable size.
Here are some of the factors to consider:
Age Concern: In recent years, the majority of Lincoln winners have been aged 6 or younger so this is always a decent place to start. The last horse to win aged 7 or older was the 8-year-old Hunters Of Brora in 1998, while it’s certainly worth knowing that since 1965 we’ve seen only two successful horses aged 7 or older! With that in mind, it’s the 4, 5 and 6 year-olds that have by far the best records in this race, but if you want to drill into this age stat a bit more it’s the 4 year-olds that have edged it with six wins in the last 11, including the last three renewals.
Weight Watchers: With the Lincoln being a handicap, the weight carried is another factor to take into consideration. With a staggering 15 of the last 16 winners carrying 9-4 or less this is too big a trend to ignore. In fact, in more recent times, 8 of the last 9 winners won carrying between 9-0 and 9-4 – that’s a fairly small window that should put a line through a lot of the runners. Plus, in the last 21 runnings (since 1998) we’ve had only one successful horse that carried less than 8-9! Finally, it’s also worth knowing that 50% of the last 16 winners had an official mark of between 95 and 99, which is another small range that should help eliminate plenty.
Trip Advisor: Okay, most of the runners will probably get a thumbs-up on this stat, but with 14 of the last 16 winners having already won over at least one mile it’s still worth noting. Basically, horses stepping up from 6f or 7f with no previous winning form over 1m+ haven’t done well.
Recent Form: Heading into the race off the back of a solid run is another factor to have on side. Eight of the last 16 Lincoln winners finished first or second in their most recent race, with 6 of the last 16 (38%) coming here off the back of a win. Add in that 13 of the last 16 winners have won between 2-4 times before in their careers then this is a more significant form trend to note. But don’t be too concerned if the horse you like is having its first run for a while – 11 of the last 16 winners won took this prize on their seasonal reappearances.
Course Knowledge: Course form has been another decent trend to look out for with 8 of the last winners having raced at Doncaster previously, plus also look for horses that ran at either Lingfield or Newmarket last time out – 7 of the last 16 winners did just that!
Draw Bias: With a field of 20+ runners in recent times the draw has certainly played its role too. With a massive 12 of the last 16 (75%) winners coming from stalls 9 or higher this has been a reliable stat that was again backed-up 12 months ago when the William Haggas-trained Addeybb won from stall 10. Hopefully, this trend can instantly put a line through 8 runners! Also note horses drawn 12 and 16 as in the last 16 years we’ve seen 9 placed.
Market Leaders: Considering the competitive billing of the race, it’s one that has actually been kind to punters in recent years. We’ve seen 3 of the last 16 favourites win (19%), while last year the top two in the betting finished first and second. Having said that, the average winning SP in the last 15 years is still around 14/1 so it’s worth checking a bit further down the betting market. Even though the favourites have a fair record in a race of this nature, we’ve also seen 10 of the last 16 market leaders finish unplaced – suggesting the favourites tend to either win, or finish out of the frame.
Trainer Watch: With only four different stables having won 9 of the last 16 runnings between them it would be silly to overlook the yards that target this prize. The stables in question are William Haggas (3), John Quinn (2), Mark Tompkins (2) and Richard Fahey (2). Therefore, it goes without saying anything they have entered should be respected, plus it’s worth pointing out that Haggas, who won the race 12 months ago, also landed the spoils in 1992, outside our 16-year remit, so he’s actually got four wins to his name.
Lincoln Handicap Betting Trends 16/16 – Aged 6 or younger 15/16 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight 14/16 – Had won over at least 1m before 13/16 – Had won between 2-4 times before 12/16 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher 11/16 – Having their first run of the flat season 10/16 – Unplaced favourites 10/16 – Returned a double figure price in the betting 10/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or more 9/16 – Aged 4 years-old 8/16 – Had raced at Doncaster before 8/16 – Officially rated between 95-99 8/16 – Placed first or second last time out 7/16 – Raced at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out 6/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting 6/16 – Won last time out 5/16 – Placed horses from stall 12 (1 winner) 4/16 - Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner) 3/16 – Winning favourites 3/16 – Trained by William Haggas 2/16 – Trained by Mark Tompkins 2/16 – Trained by Richard Fahey 2/16 – Trained by John Quinn 8 of the last 9 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-4 in weight Just 1 winner has carried 9-10 in the last 33 runnings The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 14/1 Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Redcar and the 2007 running was staged at Newcastle Recent Lincoln Handicap Winners 2018 – ADDEYBB (5/1) 2017 – BRAVERY (20/1) 2016 – SECRET BRIEF (12/1) 2015 – GABRIAL (12/1) 2014 – OCEAN TEMPEST (33/1) 2013 – LEVITATE (20/1) 2012 – BRAE HILL (25/1) 2011 – SWEET LIGHTNING (16/1) 2010 – PENITENT (3/1 fav) 2009 – EXPRESSO STAR (10/3 fav) 2008 – SMOKEY OAKEY (10/1) 2007 – VERY WISE (9/1) 2006 – BLYTHE KNIGHT (22/1) 2005 – STREAM OF GOLD (5/1 fav) 2004 – BABODANA (20/1) 2003 - PABLO (5/1)