Aintree day 2
Ben Morgan looks at day two of the Grand National Festival
What will run well in the Mildmay and Topham this year?
1:45 Merseyrail Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 4f 2.20 Betway Top Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m ½f 2.50 Betway Mildmay Novices’ Steeple Chase (Grade 1) 3m 1f 3.25 JLT (Registered as the Melling) Steeple Chase (Grade 1) 2m 4f 4.05 Randox Health Topham Steeple Chase (Grade 3) 2m 5f 4.40 Doom Bar Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 3m ½f 5.15 Weatherbys Racing Bank Standard Open NH Flat (Grade 2) 2m 1f
TOPHAM CHASE
Kilcrea Vale boasts some pretty strong form around this unique Grand National course which normally stands a horse in good stead in these types of races. His knack of finding one or two too good, however, is slightly concerning and he may be one for each way backers if you can find a price.
For win purposes I would be inclined to look elsewhere and horses such as Brandon Hill and War Sound who remain unexposed over course and distance could be interesting. The former ran Warriors Tale close over course and distance in December and that horse is a fair performer around Aintree. That is strong form and given we haven’t seen him since a below par effort at Warwick, I suggest Tom George is laying him out for a big day.
War Sound bolted up over standard fences here in November but has looked a shell of himself since. These unique fences could rejuvenate him though and I wouldn’t rule him out.
I am inclined to take a chance, however, on CRIEVEHILL who put in a magnificent round of jumping in the Kim Muir at the Festival before tiring late on. He has had a sighter around the course and that should stand him in good stead. This is a race where a front runner often runs well given the emphasis on jumping and if he can get in off a good weight I can see him running a big race.
Ben Haslam’s Bouvreuil completes the shortlist. 1) Crievehill 2) Brandon Hill 3) Kilcrea Vale
ALDER HEY HANDICAP HURDLE
Last year’s third, Who Dares Wins, has yet to be seen this season but does have a fair record when fresh. Alan King is more than capable of laying one out and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the mix again.
The unexposed Rhythm Is A Dancer has been improving at a rate of knots this season and has shown a distinct preference for good ground. Master trainer Paul Nicholls has bought him along slowly so far but a cosy win at Ludlow last time out suggests he could be ready for a step up in grade. He will probably make a chaser next season but there is no reason why he can’t grab a nice pot over hurdles before being put away.
Nicholls could have a few in the race and Brio Conti is another who would have a chance. He travelled powerfully in the Coral Cup but found a few too good late on. That was only his second run since an absence and there should be no reason why he can’t come forward again. He will, however, have to carry his fair share of weight in this but if Nicholls enlists the help of Lorcan Williams or Alex Thorne then I wouldn’t be surprised if he proved too good for the rest.
Colin Tizzard’s Padleyourowncanoe is proving himself to be a likeable horse as he continues to run well in competitive handicaps. He ran a blinder in the Pertemps when sixth and has proven himself to be versatile regards distance already this season. I can see him playing a leading role if connections decide to drop him in trip.
Slight preference, however, is for TEDHAM who was on my radar for the Martin Pipe at the Festival but for whatever reason swerved that engagement. After bumping into some top novices early in the season, he gained a deserved success at Wincanton when taking advantage of a lenient opening handicap mark. A rise in the weights since means he will have to improve but he did win cosily at Wincanton and Jonjo O’Neilll has the option of enlisting his son as jockey which will help negate some of the burden. 1) Tedham 2) Padleyourowncanoe 3) Brio Conti
TOP NOVICES HURDLE
The Dai Walters pair, Angels Breath and Al Dancer are both a lot better than they showed in the Supreme. I don’t know whether the ground
played a part in both disappointing that day but there was certainly something amiss with them. I doubt both will turn up here, but if either of them do I advise you not to write them off just yet.
Olly Murphy holds a strong hand with Thomas Darby and Itchy Feet both looking leading players. After fine runs in the Supreme, both deserve to win a nice novice race this year and it would be of no surprise to me if Murphy lets them both run here. Preference would be for Itchy Feet who may be better suited to the track.
Tokay Dokey was a late withdrawal from the Supreme but had earlier looked a decent novice. He loves a bit of good ground and if the rain stays away from Merseyside, expect this Skelton inmate to outrun his price.
The Paul Nicholls pair of Southfield Stone and Danny Kirwan are both likely contenders and both have a chance on form. Both are strong stayers so expect either or to make it a good test.
A strongly run two miles on good ground could, however, suit ARAMON who ran a great race on ground he would have hated in the Supreme. His turn of foot has proven to be lethal already this season and, as he showed in the Supreme, he can travel with the best of them but just can’t accelerate off soft ground. I expect a much better performance on good ground. 1) Aramon 2) Danny Kirwan 3) Itchy Feet
MILDMAY NOVICES CHASE
This would be some race if the first three home in the RSA all go at it again but I suspect Delta Work will be kept at home so he can clean up at Punchestown. The British pair, though, could be set for round two with both trainers looking to secure victory in the Trainers’ Championship. I was mightily impressed with TOPOFTHEGAME at Cheltenham as he looked right out of the top drawer. He fences so efficiently for such a rangy horse, which saves him so much energy. The way he travelled in behind his rivals was also eye-catching and I can’t see this speedier track catching him out.
The emphasis on speed means that Santini will have little hope of reversing the form as he looks an out-andout galloper, albeit it a classy one. He should still be good enough to hang onto a place.
The selection’s main danger could be JLT runner up, Lostintranslation. If the Tizzards elect to run him here, I think we could be in for some race.
The prospect of these two different form lines clashing is what Aintree is all about. Both jockey and trainer believe Lostintranslation is a Gold Cup horse next year and with Topofthegame already making his mark in the Gold Cup market next year everything could be set up for a thrilling race. I will stand by the selection as I think his fencing is just far superior to any other novice I have seen this season.
Top Ville Ben was an early faller in the RSA but had shown improved form prior to that and could outrun his odds here. 1) Topofthegame 2) Lostintranslation 3) Santini
MELLING CHASE
It will be interesting to see if connections of Altior decide to step him up in trip here as this looks the ideal opportunity to test their theory that he may well be better over further. In all honesty 2m 4f around Aintree isn’t much different to a Champion Chase at Cheltenham in terms of the stamina test it provides, so I’d question what they would learn if they did choose to come here. The Celebration Chase at Sandown looks a more likely target for the great Altior but it is very much a case of watch this space.
I expect last year’s first and second to renew old rivalries and I also expect the result to be the same. Last year POLITOLOGUE got the better of Min in a thrilling finish and has since held that form in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham. Excuses can be made for Min the last day, but in my view he is very much like Apples Jade as he seems to be twice the horse in Ireland. That is not to say though that it will be easy for Politologue to hold the form as he only just beat him last year, but Paul Nicholls’ horse seems to be tailor made for this intermediate trip around a flat track like Aintree. Min seems to be better suited to a stiff two miles in a race which doesn’t involve Altior and therefore I can see John Hales’ likeable grey seeing the race out better as he bids to retain his crown.
A couple of outsiders worth a mention include Frodon who has a course win to his name. Recent performances suggest, however, that a sterner test of stamina would be more to his liking. Monalee is another possible contender, but having been caught out for the pace in the Ryanair I doubt connections will be inclined to have another crack at 2m 4f. 1) Politologue 2) Min 3) Frodon
SEFTON NOVICES HURDLE
Often one of the stronger staying novice races of the season, the Sefton
Novices Hurdle more often than not throws up one of the stars of the future. Last year saw Santini bounce back from defeat in the Albert Bartlett and his trainer will be hoping for a similar success this year. Nicky Henderson had Birchdale and Dickie Diver in the Albert Bartlett but both suffered defeat with the former looking a complete non-stayer. The latter, however, caught the eye as he stayed on nicely for fourth place on what was only his third start. That was impressive given that race often suits horses with plenty of experience and if he is none the worse for those exertions then he could be a player here.
I am a big fan of Tom Lacey’s KATESON who looked a real topnotcher early on this season before a below par effort at Haydock put somewhat of a dampener on connections hopes. An absence since suggests he was indeed wrong that day and if he can bounce back to his best I think he could prove the best of them here.
Ben Pauling’s Bright Forecast stayed on nicely in the Ballymore and would be a big threat to the selection if he is stepped up in trip. 1) Kateson 2) Dickie Diver 3) Bright Forecast
CHAMPION STANDARD OPEN NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE
Thyme Hill fared the best of British challengers in the Champion Bumper but isn’t certain to turn up here. Philip Hobbs’ charge rates a serious prospect for novice hurdles next year and his owners may well want to save him with the future in mind.
Abacadabras finished a decent fourth at Prestbury Park and probably deserves to win a big bumper as his form in Ireland is very strong. Again, whether Gordon Elliott decides to send him over for this will be up for debate.
It’s probably worth focusing on the horses that bypassed Cheltenham and they are headed by MCFABULOUS who has been seriously impressive in two of his three starts to date. His only blip came at Cheltenham when perhaps the occasion along with the ground got the better of him. He did, however, prove that that was just a blip as he bounced back with an impressive win at Newbury last time out. Given his pedigree, he should be a horse well above average and I can see him running a big race here.
Alan King often does well in this race and his Nobby has looked good in all starts to date and has racked up plenty of victories while Nicky Henderson’s well touted Chantry House wouldn’t be without a chance and completes the shortlist. 1) McFabulous 2) Nobby 3) Chantry House