Aintree day 3
Ben Morgan thinks some familiar colours can land Aintree’s big prize
Grand National hopes plus all the rest of the Saturday action
1:45 Gaskells Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 3m ½f 2.25 Betway Mersey Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 4f 3.00 Doom Bar Maghull Novices’ Steeple Chase (Grade 1) 2m 3.40 Ryanair Stayers’ (Registered as the Liverpool) Hurdle (Grade 1) 3m ½f 4.20 Betway Handicap Steeple Chase (Listed) 3m 1f5:15pm 5.15 Randox Health Grand National Steeple Chase (Grade 3) 4m 2½f 6.20 Pinsent Masons Handicap Hurdle (cond’ and amat’) (Class 2) 2m ½f GRAND NATIONAL Tiger Roll could well go off the shortest priced favourite we have seen in recent years and it’s hard to argue why he shouldn’t. He has returned better than ever this season, completely dispelling the myth that National winners don’t succeed again after winning the big one. After capturing the hearts of many last season, he is now beginning to capture the imagination of all this term as he could become the first horse to retain the Grand National crown since Red Rum 35 years ago. He could have the whole country cheering him on by the off once the news spreads and the nation realise what this horse is on the brink of.
The 5-1 is probably a very fair price if he stays out of trouble on his way around but, as a tipster, I get paid to think outside the box and try to get the favourite beat. All it takes is a horse to fall in front of him and Tiger Roll will be on the deck, making 5s look far too short.
The list of dangers is headed by Rathvinden who is proving himself to be a very classy performer. Willie Mullins has broken his Gold Cup hoodoo this season and will be heading to the National full of confidence in his charge, who won the four miler at the Festival last season. He has the right profile to go close and I think he will be bang there.
Anibale Fly is an admirable horse who has now been placed in two Gold Cups and one Grand National. There is no doubting his class but it will take some effort to put in another huge run for a second year running. With that said, I think you would be silly to rule him out.
Pleasant Company and Blaklion are experienced National runners having both finished close in the past few years. The latter has recently been bought for a huge sum of money and has been laid out for this race. Phil Kirby is a decent trainer in his own right and is more than capable of executing a plan.
I will be on weather watch leading up to the National as my main hope, VINTAGE CLOUDS appreciates a little
bit of dig, and ran a perfect trial for this race in the Ultima. I was on him that day at huge odds and despite my immediate disappointment, I was very happy with the run. That should put him spot on for the National and given his owner Trevor Hemmings’ fantastic record with three wins in the race he commands a lot of respect.
Others at a price that are worth a mention include Captain Redbeard and Mall Dini. Both have been aimed at the race and if the latter wins, I will be eager to see just how Pat Kelly avoids giving an interview. 1) Vintage Clouds 2) Rathvinden 3) Tiger Roll GASKELLS WASTE MANAGEMENT HANDICAP HURDLE Padley our own canoe, is proving to be a likeable sort in these competitive handicaps and, having finished eighth in the Pertemps, he would have solid claims in this race. He hasn’t been too busy this year, perhaps with a
Given owner Trevor Hemmings’ fantastic record in the race Vintage Clouds commands a lot of respect
Spring campaign in mind and he has shown steady improvement throughout his career so far. There could be more to come and he rates a major each way player.
The clock is tic king is another who ran in the Pertemps and he put in his best run for quite some time when finishing sixth at Cheltenham. Stuart Edmunds has always held him in high regard and he seemed to enjoy the switch back to hurdles last time. Still relatively lightly raced, I can see him improving further and being a big player here.
Tobefair rolled back the years to finish second at the Festival and a repeat performance would obviously put him bang there. However, he is proving hard to catch right these days and he isn’t a certainty to run the same race again.
Monbeg Theatre is a danger if getting loose on the front end but he and the others could be playing second fiddle to a much improved WHO’S MY JOCKEY who seems to be finally getting his act together. Closely related to Hurricane Fly, he has always been well touted but struggled to live up to such a reputation early in his career. His past two runs have been much better and he seemed to thrive off the step up to three miles last time out by winning easily. He could well be unexposed over this distance and I fancy him to put up a bold show. 1) Who’s My Jockey 2) The clock is tic king 3) Pad le your own canoe BETWAY HANDICAP CHASE This was won by a young, progressive handicap chaser last season, Thomas Patrick, and I fancy a similar type to win it this year. Paul Nicholls has made no secret of the regard in which he holds GIVE ME A COPPER and despite a below par run at Cheltenham I expect him to bounce back in style here.
I’m willing to excuse his run at Cheltenham on the basis that he may have bounced on his second run since a long absence. He ran full of promise at Sandown on his reappearance and only tired late on. In the build up to Cheltenham he was well fancied and his connections made no secret that they expected him to take a lot of beating but the soft ground along with the bounce factor may have got the better of him and I expect a completely different horse to turn up here.
Kilfilium Cross ran a blinder in the Kim Muir and would be a player if lining up here but that is by no means guaranteed. Useful young stayers, Station Master and Just A Sting could play a part as both look on a good mark. Kim Bailey’s Station Master won a shade cosily at Wincanton last time out and that put him back on the right track after a disappointing run at Doncaster.
Meanwhile, Just A Sting ran a fine race in the Kim Muir despite not being in love with the tacky ground. On a decent surface he could be a big threat to the selection. 1) Give Me A Copper 2) Just A Sting 3) Station Master MERSEY NOVICES HURDLE Kateson and Bright Forecast would both feature on the shortlist for this race and I think Kateson would edge the vote again but I am writing this on the basis that both go for the Sefton on the Friday.
I can see Emitom going off a well backed favourite as Warren Greatrex’s charge has yet to taste defeat under rules and he looks a serious horse. His trainer has plenty of faith in him and has gone on record saying just how smart he thinks he is. Such comments mean you have to take him very seri
ously despite this race being his toughest race to date.
I’m going to take on the hype around him and put up one with solid form in the book. BREWIN’UPASTORM meets that criteria and, after bumping into top level novices all year, this looks an ideal opportunity for him to get his head in front. Olly Murphy thinks plenty of him and from what we have seen so far, he is right to do so. His future perhaps lies over fences but he has shown enough this year to suggest he is capable of winning a race of this nature.
His Challow conqueror, Champ, would be high on the shortlist if turning up but I think Nicky Henderson may want to mind him after a busy 12 months. His stablemate, Birchdale, is a more likely runner and he should be there or thereabouts given how well he travelled in the Albert Bartlett. 1) Brewin’upastorm 2) Emitom 3) Birchdale STAYERS HURDLE It is hard to see this race going any other way other than PAISLEY PARK. Emma Lavelle’s stable star looks very much the new kid on the Stayers Hurdle block and his victory at Cheltenham secured him his place at the top of the tree.
Everything about him says classy staying hurdler, even the way he hits a flat spot mid race as many of the best staying hurdlers did a similar thing, most notably, Big Bucks. You know however, that he is going to come home strong and hasn’t let anyone down yet. I would worry whether this race is one too many this season, as he has had a long, hard season and you get the feeling he can only go to the well so many times.
But, I expect Lavelle to make the right call as she knows what is right by the horse. If connections change their mind about putting him away and sent a fighting fit Paisley Park to Aintree, he wins.
You could make a case for Sam Spinner who seems to have returned to his best form after a fine second place at Cheltenham. He finished in the places here last year and would have leading claims again this time.
Bapaume has shown some good form this year and his fourth at Cheltenham may force connections to shelve plans they had to send him
chasing next term. He could figure here is connections decide to bypass Punchestown. 1) Paisley Park 2) Sam Spinner 3) Bapaume
MAGHULL NOVICES CHASE
Duc Des Genievres was an impressive, albeit fortunate, winner of the Arkle at Cheltenham and he could have his hands full if he attempts to take another top novice prize. The Arkle somewhat fell apart given the early falls of Ornua and Glen Forsa who were both well fancied. If the pair had stayed on their feet, I would have been interested to see how close they would have got to the winner.
Connections of Glen Forsa may now be thinking about stepping him back up in trip, which should suit, but they may stick at two for now and if so he would be well fancied to gain compensation here. I had backed ORNUA for the Arkle and I’m sticking with him here. He is a bold jumping type who has some strong form and if allowed an easy lead, he could make his rivals pay. It was an uncharacteristic error at Cheltenham which cost him his chance and I will be surprised if he makes the same mistake again. He should appreciate a bit of better ground also.
That’s a comment which applies to Lalor as he proved at Cheltenham that he just doesn’t act on that tacky ground. He would rate a danger if back to his best.
JLT third Mengli Khan, travelled sweetly before getting outstayed and could be set for a drop in trip. He would be high on the shortlist if connections decide to send him back over two miles. 1) Ornua 2) Mengli Khan 3) Glen Forsa
CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS HANDICAP HURDLE
Champagne City could finally register another handicap hurdle success after a string of fine efforts in hot company. This flat track should suit him well and the only worry would be the weight burden he would have to carry which is a punishment for his consistency.
War Brigade could be a useful recruit to handicap hurdling and represents a trainer who likes to lay one out for this race. His second placed finish to Thomas Darby puts him in with a right chance.
Formerly under the care of Tony Martin, PYROMANIAC was subject to many a gamble when competing for these big handicaps. Now under the care of Alastair Ralph, he could be the subject of another gamble as the Shropshire trainer has nominated this race as his major Spring target. He will need some good ground to be seen at his best, but it’s worth remembering he used to be a classy handicap performer and if Ralph has nursed him back to his best, then he could take some catching. 1) Pyromaniac 2) Champagne City 3) War Brigade