Andy newton
Andy Newton looks at the crucial Aintree factors
Looking at trends for the Grand National
The first thing to note is that this year there are only three weeks between Cheltenham and Aintree – one week less than 12 months ago. Therefore, we’ll have to see how many horses are in action at both these big Festivals, but last year we saw the Gordon Elliott-trained Tiger Roll land the Cross Country race at Cheltenham, before going on to win the National.
Tiger Roll will be hoping for more of the same on Saturday, April 6th and maybe he can become the first horse since Red Rum (1974) to win back-toback Nationals – hopefully he can, as after years of covering the race, I’m getting bored of wheeling out that old Red Rum line – hahaha!
So, let’s crack on and take a look at the 2019 Aintree Grand National from a trends and stats angle!
Despite having 40 runners, it’s actually been a decent race for the stat lovers, with many repeating trends popping-up year-after-year. Therefore, by just applying some of the key trends you’ll quickly notice a lot of horses simply can’t win!
For example, the last 7-year-old to win the Grand National was in 1940, yet every year punters will still part with their cash on these younger horses. We’ve also seen a massive 27 of the last 28 winners having raced within the last 55 days – again, another key trends that will help whittle down the 40 runners to a more manageable size.
Horses too young, too old, with too
much weight, plus not having had a recent run simply have history against them, and although I’m not saying these horses can’t win (the stats don’t get it right all the time), but if we want to have then best past winning profiles on our side then there are some huge factors against certain runners.
Yes – in a race of this nature – a certain amount of luck also comes into finding the winner, as you might have found two to three horses that get the thumbs-up based on the main stats only for them to be brought down at the first fence by another horse, or get hampered by a faller. However, I’m still a firm believer in finding the profile of horses that have been successful in the past and re-applying those attributes to that year’s line-up and then after that let lady luck play her hand.
Positive Grand National Pointers
- Horses that had won or finished placed in a National race of any description - Look for horses that raced over hurdles at some point earlier that season - Horses that like to be ridden up with the pace in their races often do well (avoid horses that like to be held up) - Irish-trained horses have a great recent record in the Grand National - Irish-bred horses have the best recent Grand National record - Look for horses that finished unplaced in the previous season’s Grand National – they often do well - Horses that have won over 3 miles in the past are a virtual ‘must-have’
Negative Grand National Pointers
- Horses aged 13 or older don’t have a great Grand National winning record – you have to go back to 1923! - Runners that have fallen or unseated three or more times often don’t run well - Past Grand National winners and previous Grand National placed horses have bad returning records - Horses that had last raced over 56 days ago often don’t run well - Runners that had hard races at the Cheltenham Festival, run the previous month, don’t fare well, although Tiger Roll kicked this trend into touch last year. Weight Watchers: Some recent winners have carried 11st (or more) to victory, but looking back at recent trends make this weight your cut-off point. If you look back over winners in current times, we’ve only seen the mighty Red Rum (1974 & 1977) and Many Clouds (2015) carry 11-8 or more – 22 of the last 28 winners carried 10-12 or less! Tiger Roll won with 10st 13lbs in 2019. Staying Power: Stamina is an absolute must when scanning down the entries. Year-after-year there are always plenty of hype horses that are certainly talented, but the big question surrounding their chance is will they stay the grueling 4m 1/4f trip? You have to trawl back to 1970 and a horse called Gay Trip to find the last victor that won the Grand National having not previously won over at least three miles.
Age Concern: Experience is a vital attribute when looking back at past Grand National winners with horses aged 9-years-old or OLDER certainly the ones to focus on. You have to go back to 1940 (Bogskar) to find the last 7-year-old to grab the Merseyside marathon! So, don’t be too put off if your fancy is in their twilight years – but not a teenager – 23 of the last 28 winners were aged 9 or older, but it is worth pointing out three of the last four winners were 8-year-olds, suggesting there might be a bit of a turning point in this age stat. Luck Of The Irish: Our friends from the across the Irish Sea have raided these shores to win the Grand National many times in recent years, so certainly take a second glance at any of their runners. five of the last 14 winners came from Irish-based stables, including two of the last three. Fencing Master: With 30 of the most unique obstacles in horse racing to contend with then having previous form over the tricky Grand National fences can be a huge advantage. Many recent Grand National winners had previously been tried over these Grand National-style fences in the past. The Topham Chase and Becher Chase – or a previous run in the big race itself –are the main races that are staged at Aintree over the same Grand Nationalstyle fences. A ‘Stable’ Diet: Which are the main yards to note. Well, in recent times we’ve seen a lot of new trainers get their name on the Grand National hallof-fame. In the last 21 runnings we’ve had 19 different handlers land the prize. Gordon Elliott and Nigel Twiston-Davies, with two wins each since 1998, are the only two that have taken the race more than once in that time. Who’s Your Favourite: The betting on the Grand National always picks up pace in the weeks building up to the big day, but on the Saturday itself, when the once-a-year punters hit the high streets, this is when the betting market really kicks into gear. It’s also worth noting that the weights for the Grand National are issued well in advance (February each year), so with some horses often running well after they’ve been given their allocated weight and before the race then this can also impact the ante post Grand National betting. Five of the last 27 runnings have been won by the favourite (19%), while 15 of the last 28 (54%) market leaders were placed (top four finish). Market Toppers: We’ve already talked about the actual favourite, but this
Despite having 40 runners, it’s been a decent race for the stat lovers, with many repeating trends popping-up yearafter-year.
Grand National trend can be taken a bit further when you drill down into recent runnings. In fact, most winners in recent years started in the first eight of the Grand National betting market – indicating that despite the Venetia Williams-trained, Mon Mome, popping-up at 100/1 in 2009, punters generally tend to get this race right. Nine of the last 16 winners came from the top eight in the betting market – backed up again last year with Tiger Roll winning at 10/1 (joint second favourite) Fitness First: Probably the biggest trend in recent years, and a really easy way to whittle the 40 strong field down in one easy swoop, is just check how many days ago your fancy last ran. The majority of the recent Grand National winners had their previous race no more than 48 days prior to the big day. If you want to drill this trend down a bit further then you’ll notice that a large number of recent winners actually raced less than 40 days prior to landing the greatest steeplechase in the world. 27 of the last 28 winners ran no more than 55 days ago, while 22 of the last 28 raced no more than 34 days ago!
So, even though it’s a bit early to be pinpointing a horse that ticks a lot of the trends, now the Cheltenham Festival is done-and-dusted we can start to focus on the main Grand National trends and apply these to the entries over the next two or three weeks and when we know the final runners a few days before the big race we should already be armed with a shortlist of four or five trend horses to go to war with.
Good luck!
Recent Grand National Winners
2018 - Tiger Roll (10/1) 2017 - One For Arthur (14/1) 2016 – Rule The World 33/1 2015 – Many Clouds 25/1 2014 – Pineau De Re 25/1 2013 – Auroras Encore 66/1 2012 - Neptune Collonges 33/1 2011 - Ballabriggs 14/1 2010 - Don't Push It 10/1jfav 2009 - Mon Mome 100/1 2008 - Comply or Die 7/1 jfav 2007 - Silver Birch 33/1 2006 - Numbersixvalverde 11/1 2005 - Hedgehunter 7/1 fav 2004 - Amberleigh House 16/1 2003 - Monty’s Pass 16/1 2002 - Bindaree 20/1 2001 - Red Marauder 33/1 2000 - Papillon 10/1 1999 - Bobbyjo 10/1 1998 - Earth Summit 7/1 fav 1997 - Lord Gyllene 14/1 1996 - Rough Quest 7/1 fav 1995 - Royal Athlete 40/1 1994 - Miinnehoma 16/1 1993 - VOID RACE 1992 - Party Politics 14/1 1991 - Seagram 12/1 1990 - Mr Frisk 16/1
Aintree Grand National Trends (Last 28 Runnings)
27/28 – Ran no more than 55 days ago 27/28 – Officially rated 137 or higher 26/28 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before 25/28 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before 23/28 – Aged 9 or older 23/28 – Returned a double-figure price 22/28 – Ran no more than 34 days ago 21/28 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting 22/28 – Carried 10-13 OR LESS 19/28 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before 16/28 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS 17/28 – Finished in the top 4 last time out 17/28 – Aged 10 years-old or younger 15/28 – Placed favourites 14/28 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old 15/28 – Won by an Irish-bred horse 10/28 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out 9/28 – Trained in Ireland (inc 6 of the last 13 years) 6/28 – Ran in a previous Grand National 5/28 – Won by the favourite or joint favourite 6/28 – Won last time out 2/28 – Trained by Nigel TwistonDavies 2/28 – Trained by Gordon Elliott 2/28 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh 2/28 – Ridden by Leighton Aspell 0/28 – Won by a horse aged 7-yearsold OR LESS
Aintree Grand National Facts
• Since 1978, 124 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – with just two winners – Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012 • 15 of the last 20 winners were bred in Ireland • Only 2 horse that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961 • The last 7 year-old or younger to win was back in 1940 • 12 of the last 22 winners had won or been placed in a National-type race before • No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969 • 3 of the last 10 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season • 9 of the last 16 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season • 5 of the last 17 winners had been unplaced in the National last year • Only four 8 year-olds have won the last 25 renewals • Just one past winner or placed horse from the previous year’s race has won for 34 years (76 have attempted) • 20 of the last 22 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers • The last horse to win back-to-back Nationals was Red Rum in 1974
Aintree Grand National Betting Trends (16 Year)
15/16 – Had won over at least 3m previously 14/16 – Ran less than 50 days ago 14/16 – Officially rated 137 or higher 13/16 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older 9/16 – Won by horses aged in doublefigures 9/16 – Winners from the top 8 in the betting 9/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out 7/16 – Experienced the National fences 6/16 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight 6/16 – Won by an Irish-trained horse 5/16 – Won by a horse aged 10 yearsold 4/16 – Won their last race 3/16 – Winning favourites (2 joint) 2/16 – Won by the McCain yard 2/16 – Won by the Gordon Elliott yard