Eddie wood
Eddie Wood offers more betting advice
More expert staking plans and betting advice
It is commonplace to select a group of horses to follow for the Flat season, even if it is only a short list of horses that caught your eye at the backend of last season. Now a decision must be made on how best to deal with those chosen. Should they be supported for all their future outings or should they be backed only up to the point where they win? These factors need to be dealt with before it is too late; beyond the stage of ‘no return’.
The needs of the individual must dictate the policy that is followed. Much of the indecision can be attributed to the kind of selections that have been chosen. Is the object of the exercise to select the repeat winner or has the aim been to go for the rather surprise and singular victor?
If the list of horses relies upon a sole victory to show a profit should we use level stakes? This does not lead to a high percentage profit but at the same time it does not steer one towards an enormous loss either. The advantage it may have over all other forms of staking is that it does allow you to keep going on a particular horse for the maximum amount of time.
TEMPTATION
Don’t be tempted to use a nonsensical manner of staking. The progression of 3-2-1-4-5 points and 4-2-1-4-5 points have often been seen in use but they are given to illustrate particular sequences and nothing else. These, and others like them, are simply used to fit the pattern of results which have materialised. What other reason can there be for a sequence which requires a third stage winner at 5/1 or 6/1 to break-even followed by a fourth stage winner at only 6/4 or 7/4 which does the exact same? In short, they are quite ridiculous and should be given a very wide berth indeed.
If you are hell-bent upon stake manipulation, you could do far worse than simply adhere to stakes which are increased by one half point, or one whole point, following each successive losing bet. Just remember that for a whole point, the break-even odds that are required are: one) any price, two) 1/2, three) 1-1, four) 6/4 and five) 2/1. For a half-point rise, the break-even point odds are as follows: one) any price, two) 4/6, three) 5/4, four) 9/5 and five) 7/3.
With these progressions, the stage may be reached when a win is not at a sufficiently rewarding price to eradicate all the losses so far sustained. The individual may then feel like chasing the deficit. This may be perfectly alright because of the negligible quality of the loss. For example, after the sequence Lost, Lost, Lost, Won 1-1 the loss would only be two points on the staking progression of 1-2-3-4 points and two points on the progression of 1-1.5-2-2.5 points.
This sort of happening may lead to a build-in of a control. This can simply mean that the progression can work in accordance with the losses sustained, or the experienced odds of the winners. This type of event automatically leads to the formation of a plan which is as follows: an increase by a half-point after each loser and retard by the following amounts once winners have been encountered.
ODDS-ON - STAKE LEVEL MAINTAINED
to 2/1 - Reduce level of staking over the last amount used by a half-point. 9/4 to 3/1 etc - Reduce by a whole point.
There are many variations on this theme. That is why the et cetera is included. Fundamentally they are all very sensible approaches to the business of staking, and they all return to a one-point stake immediately after there is any profit to be made.
THE STAKING ARRANGEMENT
Often another staking arrangement is put forward which increases in these steps: 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, 4-4 points. This presents us with a break-even position where the odds of the winners required are: one) any price, two) 1-1, three) 1-1, four) 2-1, five) 2/1 and six) 3/1. The benefits of restraint followed by a full point increase is best judged with an actual sequence of events. Again, we may find the emphasis placed upon the individual who wishes to continue beyond this win.
The employment of stakes is every bit as important as the method of selection itself. This can only be judged after many years of trial and error and, as far as I am concerned, the best will always be level staking.