ANDY NEWTON
Andy Newton looks at the vital statistics of June Classics
Looking at the trends for the Oaks and the Derby
We can look forward to a bundle of top Group races at Ascot, but before that fiveday Royal meeting we’ve got the third and fourth of the English Classics at Epsom and that’s were I’m heading this month – two for the price of one!
Epsom Oaks – The fillies’ Classic this year will be run on the final day of May (Friday 31). Last year we saw Aidan O’Brien land the prize for staggering seventh time, but – did you know – he’s still some way off the haul of trainer Robert Robson, who won 13 Epsom Oaks prizes in the 1800’s – Wow!
So, what are the trends saying ahead of the 2019 renewal?
Stable Diet – I’ve already touched on the excellent record of O’Brien. He’ll be looking for his eighth success in the race so it goes without saying that anything he runs should always be respected. The Ballydoyle maestro is sure to be mob-handed again – last year he had five of the nine runners. Top tip – don’t always discount his bigger-priced runners as he’s had a 50/1 and 20/1 winner in the last seven years.
Of the rest, with two wins in the last 11 runnings, the Ralph Beckett yard are also always worth a second look, while the John Gosden camp have won two of the last five runnings as well.
Fitness First – One of the main stats to take into the race is that ALL of the last 17 winners had run in the last five weeks, so having a recent run is always something to look for. Plus, with 14 of the last 17 Epsom Oaks winners having finished in the top two last time out then not only having had a recent run, but a good ‘recent run’ is key.
Draw Advantage – With the Oaks run over 1m4f, many will feel the draw won’t be that important. However, if the stats are anything to go by, this hasn’t been the case in recent years. 11 of the last 17 winners came from stalls 5 or higher. Yes, last year’s winner – Together Forever – kicked that trend into touch as she won from stall 3, but overall a 65% return is still a fair return. 14 of the last 17 horses from stall 1 have also been unplaced – however, don’t discount horses from stall 2 as seven of the last 15 (47%) have been placed.
Other trends to look for – having winning form over at least 1m2f in the past is something else to look for – 11 of the last 17 tick this stat – while in terms of the market leaders it seems race favourites do well and punters get it right more often than not. 29% of the last 17 favourites have won – which is not a bad return, while 11 of the last 17 jollies have finished in the frame.
Nine of the last 17 (53%) won last time out, while even though many feel the 1,000 Guineas is a good guide, we’ve only seen Minding (2016) and Kazzia (2002) in recent times land both races – in fact, only 4 of the last 17 Oaks winners ran in that earlier Newmarket Classic.
Hopefully these trends will help once we know the final runners – but with the O’Brien yard having already won the both this season’s Guineas then Oaks win number eight looks a distinct possibility.
Recent Epsom Oaks Winners
2018 – Forever Together (7/1) 2017 – Enable (6/1) 2016 – Minding (10/11 fav) 2015 – Qualify (50/1) 2014 – Taghrooda (5/1) 2013 – Talent (20/1) 2012 - Was (20/1) 2011 – Dancing Rain (20/1) 2010 – Snow Fairy (9/1) 2009 – Sariska (9/4 fav) 2008 – Look Here (33/1) 2007 – Light Shift (13/2) 2006 – Alexandrova (9/4 fav) 2005 – Eswarah (11/4 jfav) 2004 – Ouija Board (7/2) 2003 – Casual Look (10/1) 2002 – Kazzia (10/3 fav)
Epsom Oaks Betting Trends
17/17 – Ran within the last 5 weeks 14/17 – Horses from stall 1 unplaced 14/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out 11/17 – Won from stall 5 or higher 11/17 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
11/17 – Favourites that were placed 9/17 – Won last time out 5/17 – Won by the favourite (1 joint) 5/17 – Returned a double-figure price 5/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien 5/17 – Irish-trained winners 4/17 – Ran in the English 1,000 Guineas 2/17 – Trained by Ralph Beckett 2/17 – Trained by John Gosden 2/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore 0/17 – Had run at the course before 0/17 – Had run over 1m4f before 7 of the last 12 favourites were unplaced Aidan O’Brien has won the race 7 times The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 12/1 Kazzia (2002) and Minding (2016) were the last horses to win both the 1,000 Guineas and Epsom Oaks The horse from stall 2 has been placed in 7 of the last 15 runnings
As always, the 2019 Epsom Derby is run on the following day – Saturday June 1 and, just like the Oaks, the Derby is a contest the Guineas (2,000) always gets linked with. However, in recent years only Sea The Stars (2009) and Camelot (2012) have taken both races in the same season – with Nijinsky (1970) the only horse before them to win the two Classics. The O’Brien-trained Magna Grecia, who was the smooth winner of the 2,000 Guineas this season will be looking to become the latest horse to try and join this particular hall of fame.
In recent times, five of the last 17 Derby winners contested the 2,000 Guineas the previous month, but, as we all know there is a step up in trip by half-a-mile from the Guineas to the Derby. Therefore, not only do horses need to prove they can stay the extra yardage, other key trial races have to be taken into account.
In recent years, by far the best guide to the Epsom Derby has been the Dante Stakes – run at York last month (May 16). We’ve seen the likes of Motivator, North Light, Authorised and Golden Horn winning the Dante Stakes before going onto take the Derby – while in total we’ve seen 10 Dante winners go on to follow-up in the Derby.
So Telecaster, if supplemeneted, must be respected.
Of other trial races, the Chester May Meeting has done a good job of producing the Derby winner in recent times too. The 2017 Derby winner - Wings Of Eagles – was runner-up in the Chester Vase while Ruler Of The World – the 2013 Derby winner –
won that same Chester race before glory on the Downs a month later. So, what are the main trends? Who’s Your Favourite – The Derby has not been a bad a race for the market leaders in recent times. Yes, last year’s jolly – Saxon Warrior – could manage only fourth and in the last two years we’ve seen 40/1 and 16/1 winners. Having said that, with 6 of the last 17 (35%) favourites winning, and an even better 12 of the last 17 (71%) placed, then that’s still not a bad return. It’s also worth pointing out that 15 of the last 17 winners returned 7/1 or shorter, with the average winning SP over that period just 13/2.
Fitness First – A massive 16 of the last 17 Derby winners had raced no more than 5 times before the big race – suggesting the Derby winners of late are still unexposed sorts that can improve rapidly between their early career runs. With a massive 16 of the last 17 (94%) winners also having raced in the last 5 weeks then having had a recent outing is a ‘must-have’ too. Also look for horses that were placed first or second in their most recent race – with 15 of the last 17 winners ticking this particular trend – while 15 of the last 17 (88%) were previous Group race winners.
Draw Advantage – Similar to the Oaks, the draw has played its part in the Epsom Derby. Okay, last year’s winner – Masar – came from stall 10, but with 11 of the last 17 winners coming from a single-figure draw then this is still a trend to take into account with a 65% return.
Stable Diet - In terms of the main yards to look for then this is yet another of the big English Classics a certain Mr. Aidan O’Brien loves to win – his tally to-date stands at six! We’ve also seen 8 of the last 17 winners being Irish-trained. On the domestic front Sir Michael Stoute is flying the flag with five wins, with the last of those coming in 2010 with Workforce, while the ‘boys in blue’ of Godolphin won the prize last year for the first time.
This year looks like being as open a race as we’ve had for a long time, but be sure to check back on key trial races at Chester and the Dante Stakes at York, while hopefully the key trends below will also help narrow down your search.
Past Epsom Derby Winners
2018 – Masar (16/1) 2017 – Wings of Eagles (40/1) 2016 – Harzand (13/2) 2015 – Golden Horn (13/8 fav) 2014 – Australia (11/8 fav) 2013 – Ruler Of The World (7/1) 2012 – Camelot (8/13 fav) 2011 – Pour Moi (4/1) 2010 – Workforce (6/1) 2009 – Sea The Stars (11/4) 2008 – New Approach (5/1) 2007 – Authorized (5/4 fav) 2006 – Sir Percy (6/1) 2005 – Motivator (3/1 fav) 2004 – North Light (7/2 j fav) 2003 – Kris Kin (6/1) 2002 – High Chaparral (7/2)
Epsom Derby Betting Trends
16/17 – Raced no more than 5 times before 16/17 – Ran within the last 5 weeks 15/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting 15/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out 15/17 – Had won a Group race before 12/17 – Favourites that were placed 11/17 – Won from a single-figure stall 11/17 – Won last time out 11/17 – Had run over at least 1m2f before 10/17 – Had raced no more than 3 times before 8/17 – Had won a Group One before 8/17 – Irish-trained winners 6/17 – Won by the favourite 5/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won 6 in all) 5/17 – Ran in the 2,000 Guineas that season (2 winners) 4/17 – Won the Dante Stakes (York) last time out 3/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won 5 in all) 3/17 – Winners from stall 12 or higher 1/17 – Won over 1m4f before 0/17 – Run at the course before 0/17 – Winners from stall 1 The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 13/2 10 Dante winners went onto win the Derby (Golden Horn, 2015 being the most-recent) Only 1 horse that was beaten in the Dante (Workforce) went onto win the Derby
Epsom Derby Trainer Stats
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2010, 2004, 2003, 1986 & 1981 Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2002, 2001, 2012, 2013, 2014 & 2017