andy newton

Top trends for the Oaks and the Derby

TEpsom Oaks and Derby will now be run on the same day – Saturday July 4th. Let’s take a look at the main trends for both races.

Epsom Oaks

In recent years, the race has been dominated by two powerhouse stables – John Gosden and Aidan O’Brien. The pair have won the race a staggering seven times in the last eight years and are sure to mob-handed again.

So, what are the trends?

Stable Diet – O’Brien will be looking for his eighth success in the race so anything he runs smust be respected. Top tip - don’t always discount his biggerpriced runners as he’s had a 50/1 and 20/1 winners in the last eight years.

Trainer John Gosden has had three wins in the last six renewals, including Anapurna last year, and Ralph Beckett has returned from the break with his horses in good order.

Fitness First – ALL of the last 18 winners had run in the last five weeks. However, this trend might have to be taken with a pinch of salt this year because of the early season break. But it could still pay to look at recent runs - with 15 of the last 18 Oaks winners having finished in the top two last time out. Not only having had a recent run, but a good recent run is key.

Draw Advantage? With the Oaks run over 1m4f many will feel the draw isn’t too important. However, if the stats are anything to go by, the draw is still something to respect. Epsom is an undulating, turning track so having a good early position can make all the difference. 11 of the last 18 winners came from stalls 5 or higher. Yes, last year’s winner – Anapurna – kicked that trend into touch as she won from stall 3 – in fact, the last two winners have come from that same stall! But overall a 61% return is still a fair return on winners drawn 5 or higher. 15 of the last 18 horses from stall 1 have also been unplaced - however, don’t discount horses from stall 2, as 7 of the last 16 (44%) have been placed.

Other trends to look for – Having winning form over at least 1m2f in the past is important – 12 of the last 18 tick this stat - while in terms of the market leaders it seems to be race favourites do well in and punters get it right more often than not. 28% of the last 18 favourites have won – while 11 of the last 18 jollies have been in the top three.

Ten of the last 18 (56%) won last time out, while even though many feel the 1,000 Guineas is a good guide, we’ve only seen Minding (2016) and Kazzia (2002) in recent times land both races – in fact, only 4 of the last 18 Oaks winners ran in that earlier Newmarket Classic. 12 months ago we saw the Lingfield Oaks Trial winner go onto land the race, so this year’s winner of that preprace – Miss Yoda, who is also trained by John Gosden – might be one for the shortlist if running.

Recent Epsom Oaks Winners

2019 – Anapurna (8/1)

2018 – Forever Together (7/1) 2017 – Enable (6/1)

2016 – Minding (10/11 fav) 2015 – Qualify (50/1)

2014 – Taghrooda (5/1)

2013 – Talent (20/1)

2012 - Was (20/1)

2011 – Dancing Rain (20/1) 2010 – Snow Fairy (9/1)

2009 – Sariska (9/4 fav) 2008 – Look Here (33/1) 2007 – Light Shift (13/2) 2006 – Alexandrova (9/4 fav) 2005 – Eswarah (11/4 jfav) 2004 – Ouija Board (7/2) 2003 – Casual Look (10/1) 2002 – Kazzia (10/3 fav)

Epsom Oaks Betting Trends

18/18 – Ran within the last 5 weeks

15/18 – Horses from stall 1 that were unplaced

15/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out 12/18 – Won over at least 1m2f previously 11/18 – Won from stall 5 or higher

11/18 – Favourites that were placed

10/18 – Won last time out

5/18 – Won by the favourite (1 joint)

5/18 – Returned a double-figure price 5/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien

5/18 – Irish-trained winners

4/18 – Ran in the English 1,000 Guineas 3/18 – Trained by John Gosden

2/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore

2/18 – Trained by Ralph Beckett

1/18 – Had run over 1m4f before