oaks preview
Love is in the air for Ben Morgan in the fillies Classic
This year’s Oaks wouldn’t be the strongest edition in terms of depth but the two fillies at the top of the market could be very, very good. Aidan O’Brien’s LOVE currently heads the market at 13/8 after a dominant 1000 Guineas success at Newmarket. That was an impressive victory because her breeding suggests she should really be hitting her peak over further and although you can pick holes in the form you have to admit it was an exceptionally good performance.
In the Lockdown, I dedicated a fair bit of time to the ante-post markets and struck a few bets to satisfy the urge. One of these was Love to win the Guineas and Oaks at 40/1. Now, I can’t admit to being overly confident on this bet but I thought it was an outrageous price considering that it looked likely from a long way out that this would be O’Brien’s main dart at the board at Newmarket.
A man who usually throws four or five into a race of this nature was looking likely to rely on one filly? I couldn’t have her out of the places considering that and I thought she might just strike lucky and fall into a Guineas win before really dominating the Oaks field.
As it happened she dominated at Newmarket too and now looks to have a smashing chance in the Oaks. Her Dam has sired plenty of staying types but none to the standard of Love and although some called her ‘exposed’ after a couple of defeats at two, she was always going to excel at three over a trip. With this in mind I think she is a nigh on certainty to go well at Epsom and although she is short, she could be a good thing.
I exude a good bit of confidence about Love but I can tell you I would be even more confident if it wasn’t for Frankly Darling. I’ve been waiting for a John Gosden filly to burst onto the scene as they always tend to do, year in, year out. I’ve been scouring the markets to see if there was one lurking somewhere but all I could really find was Miss Yoda.
That was until Frankly Darling erupted onto the scene at Newcastle, powering away in a good time. You just had this feeling this was an aboveaverage Oppenheimer filly and she confirmed that feeling by romping home at Royal Ascot in the Ribblesdale. She was keen enough that day but still had plenty left in the tank to scoot away from her rivals up the straight. It was at this point, I realised Love had some serious competition for Oaks glory.
However, I’m sticking with my girl as I think she is the more professional of the two and her experience should hand her the advantage on July 4. We saw at Ascot Frankly Darling can be keen and although she got away with it there, I don’t think she will be able to get away with it at Epsom. Add in the fact she has had two quick runs in her three-race career and it means I just can’t tip her to beat a proven world class performer like Love.
Looking at the betting, I can’t see past these two at the top of the market. Quadrilateral was disappointing at Newmarket and although she will probably be suited by this step up in trip, nothing would suggest she can reverse the form with Love. As I write this, she is due to take her chance in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot and it will be interesting to see how she fares there and what connections do with her after.
She had been due to face Love’s stablemate, Peaceful, at Ascot and she was an impressive winner of the Irish 1000 Guineas at the Curragh. Peaceful wasn’t declared at Ascot and Aidan seems to want to keep Love and Peaceful apart for as long as possible, which would be wise as I think he could mop up with both of them. However, after she bypassed that Ascot engagement, it is possible she could line up here and would rate a danger.
Peaceful beat Fancy Blue at the Curragh and Donnacha O’Brien’s filly was a big eyecatcher, staying on from the back of the pack. That performance screamed for a step up in trip and although she is prominent in the betting here, it would be some training performance to train an Oaks winner in your first season with a license. Donnacha is an O’Brien, however, so I wouldn’t write him off but I think
Fancy Blue has a bit to find with the front two in the market.
Of the rest I’m not too sure how many will actually run. Miss Yoda and Run Wild have already been ruled out by John Gosden while long-term favourite for this race, Born With Pride, disappointed at Kempton and looks an out and out mudlark. Domino Darling hasn’t been seen yet this season but her owner has the second favourite so may not want to run both.
Gold Wand finished in behind that filly on debut and looks the sort to develop with time so could run a tidy race if lining up. Franconia is a latecomer to the party after her powerful win in the Abingdon Stakes at Newbury and she is certainly bred for the job.
In summary, I think the market has it about right. Love’s experience should prove crucial and she should have enough to see off Frankly Darling and stablemate Peaceful.