Get stats on your side at York

Andy Newton looks at the factors that matter in the Ebor

There’s so much to look forard to this month, and especially York’s four-day Ebor Festival (August 1922). There are several standout races over the meeting – including the Nunthorpe Stakes, Juddmonte International, Great Voltigeur Stakes and the Yorkshire Oaks, but the Ebor Handicap, run on Saturday, August 22, has always been a great race for the trends lovers to dissect.

First run in 1843, the Ebor Handicap is over a trip of 1m6f and is currently the most valuable handicap Flat race in Europe. Therefore, with a lucrative prize haul on offer it’s no shock it attracts an ultra-competitive field, but it’s also a contest some key trends have held up well in recent years.

What are the main stats to look for?

Age Concern – We had a 7-year-old winner of the Ebor Handicap in 2015, but that was the oldest winner since Sea Pigeon in 1979! With 17 of the last 18 winners aged 6 or younger then this is the clear age range to focus on, while if you want to take this a bit further it might pay to know 12 of the last 18 winners were aged either 4 or

5. Draw Advantage – With the Ebor being run over 1m6f, you may feel the draw doesn’t really matter. However, this is not true! Horses that can get a good early position and are not forced to travel wide around the home bend into the long York straight has been a big advantage in recent years. Yes, last year’s winner – Mustajeer – defied

this trend when winning from stall two, but in recent years a massive 14 of the last 18 winners came from a double-figure stall. This will hopefully allow us to rule out 9 of the 20+ horses that are likely to run. This draw stat is further backed-up as we’ve seen just two placed horses from stall one in the last 18 years, and 12 months ago, baring the winner the second, third and fourth all came from doublefigure berths. Trip Advisor – With the Ebor run over 1m6f, having winning form over a distance of at least 1m4f+ is vital – a massive 15 of the last 18 winners getting a thumbs-up on this stat. This trend will apply to most of the runners, but it’s still something to be aware of if there any fancied runners stepping up in trip.

Weight Watchers – Being a handicap, then weight carried is another thing to look at. Yes, the last two winners carried 9st-5lbs and 9st-9lbs, so there may be a turning point with this stat. But we’ve still seen a huge 17 of the last 18 winners carried 9st-5lbs or less, so you should be able to put a line through a few horses based on this. In 2019, 13 of the 22 runners carried

9st-6lbs or more! While, if you want to look deeper into this trend, then 12 of those 18 recent winners won with 9st-1lbs or less on their backs.

Bookie v Punter – Who has come out on top? Well, the answer is easy! We’ve seen only one winning favourite since 1999 – while we also had a 100/1 winner pop up in 2006. Therefore, I think it’s safe to say this is a contest the bookmakers look forward to each season and have dominated in recent years.

Oh, if you also like laying horses on the betting exchanges then you might be interested to know that 9 of the last 18 market leaders (50%) have

NOT even made the frame (top four finish) – this was backed-up again in 2019 with the favourite – Raheen House - managing only ninth.

Fitness First – Having had a recent outing is another key trend. Horses that had three or more outings already that season have done best. Eleven of the last 18 winners fit the bill here, while 50% of the last 18 winners had previous course experience at York – two more trends that last year’s winner – Mustajeer – ticked having also ran fourth in the 2018 Ebor. Also, with 9 of the last 18 (50%) winners having run at either Goodwood or Ascot last time out this is another line of form to check.

Stable Diet - Which are the best stables to look for? Trainer John Gosden won the Ebor Handicap for the first time in 2018 and is sure to have some decent chances, but Sir Michael Stoute’s is the UK-based stable with the best record. Okay, they’ve not won the prize since 1996, but the Stoute camp have recorded three wins in the Ebor between 1980 and 1996 – so maybe they are due another!

Luck Of The Irish - Finally, it’s also a race some of the leading Irish yards

tend to target. Since 2009 we’ve had winners for Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott, Johnny Murtagh and Tony Martin, while this was backed up again 12 months ago when the Ger Lyonstrained Mustajeer landed the prize.

Good luck and have a great month! Key Ebor Handicap 18 Year Betting Trends 17/18 – Carried 9-5 or less

17/18 – Aged 6 or younger

15/18 – Had won over at least 1m4f before

14/18 – Won from a double-figure stall 12/18 – Carried 9-1 or less

12/18 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old 12/18 – Winning Distance - 1 length or less 11/18 – Had 3 or more runs already that season

10/18 – Unplaced favourites

9/18 – Had run at York before

5/18 – Ran at Ascot last time out

5/18 – Won last time out

5/18 – Irish-trained winners (5 of the last 11)

4/18 – Ran at Goodwood last time out 3/18 – Ran at Galway last time out

2/18 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer

2/18 – Placed horses from stall 1 (third 2011, third 2013)

1/18 – Winning favourites

Just one winning favourite since 1999 Trainer Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 1980, 1991 & 1996

The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 21/1 Past Betfred Ebor Winners 2019 – Mustajeer (16/1)

2018 – Muntahaa (11/1)

2017 – Nakeeta (12/1)

2016 – Heartbreak City (15/2) 2015 – Litigant (33/1)

2014 – Mutual Regard (20/1) 2013 – Tiger Cliff (5/1)

2012 – Willing Foe (12/1)

2011 – Moyenne Corniche (25/1) 2010 – Dirar (14/1)

2009 – Sesenta (25/1)

2008 – All The Good (25/1) 2007 – Purple Moon (7/2 fav) 2006 – Mudawin (100/1)

2005 – Sergeant Cecil (11/1) 2004 – Mephisto (6/1)

2003 – Saint Alebe (20/1)

2002 – Hugs Dancer (25/1)