ANDY NEWTON
Leading trends for the St Leger at Doncaster
It’s certainly been a year to remember – and forget – and we’ve still plenty of Flat turf action to look forward to with Champions Day at Ascot, plus the two big Autumn meetings at Newmarket.
But this month the focus is on the final English Classic of the season – the William Hill St Leger, run – as always – at Doncaster. This year the race will be staged on Saturday, September 12.
The St Leger, which was first run in 1776, is the oldest of the five English Classics, so the 1m 6 1/2f contest has loads of history and a bundle of key trends to take into account.
Twelve months ago we saw the powerful John Gosden yard land the race with Logician – it was the stable’s fifth win in the race and their fourth since 2010. While their classy grey became the fourth winning favourite in the last seven renewals.
It’s also a contest Aidan O’Brien likes to target – the Ballydoyle handler has won the first prize six times in total and twice in the last three years.
In terms of jockeys, it seems to be a race in which the cream rises to the top. We’ve seen Frankie Dettori, William Buick and Andrea Atzeni all win the St Leger twice since 2008, while, in total, Dettori has six St Legers to his name so anything the pocket Italian rides is sure to be popular.
Let’s take a look at some of the key St Leger trends...
Trip Advisor – With the St Leger run over 1m6f this is likely to be the first, or only the second, time these 3 yearolds have tackled this sort of distance. Therefore, a certain degree of trust has to be taken into account as to whether some of these horses can get home.
Many also improve for the step up in trip and could easily leave past form behind. It is worth noting that 13 of the last 18 winners had at least won over 1m3f or further though. However, with 11 of the last 18 winners – including the 2019 hero Logician – having never raced over this 1m6f trip then those horses stepping up in distance certainly should not be discounted.
Bookie v Punter – It’s actually not been a bad race for the market leaders in recent years. We’ve seen eight winning favourites in the last 18 renewals (44%), including another last year with Logician returning as the 5/6 jolly.
Also, a massive 15 of the last 18 (83%) jollies were placed. With the average winning SP being 7/1 then, more often than not, the winner of the St Leger comes from the head of the market.
Fitness First – Having had a recent run is certainly another positive to note. Horses that have had two or three previous career wins have won 15 of the last 18 runnings, while 13 of the last 18 had run between 4 or 5 times that season. With a massive 16 of the last 18 (89%) winners also having finished in the top three in their most recent run, then coming here off the back off a solid effort is another trend to have on side.
Draw Bias – Yes, the St Leger is run over a trip of 1m6f, so you’d think the draw wouldn’t really matter. However, that’s not the case! Seemingly, having a good early position and saving energy has been key. This is backed-up with 11 of the last 18 winners (61%) hailing from stalls 5 or higher.
Stable Diet – The Aidan O’Brien yard will be looking for their seventh success and have won two of the last three. Plus, with four wins since 2007, trainer John Gosden, who was also responsible for the 2019 winner, is another top yard to note. Of the rest, the ‘boys in blue’ of Godolphin have a fine record, winning six St Legers, but the last of those came back in 2012.
Track Form – Don’t be too worried if your fancy hasn’t raced at Doncaster before as a massive 15 of the last 18 winners hadn’t either. Doncaster is an uncomplicated track, with a long straight so will suit most staying horses anyway. Group Class – With the St Leger being a Group One contest, it goes without saying that having shown a decent level of form in Group contests in the past helps. This is further backed-up with 14 of the last 18 winners having won a Group race before heading here.
Top Trials – The St Leger is the final of the five English Classics and, being run towards the end of the season,
there have been many races before this to prime horses up for this.
The main trials to note have been the Gordon Stakes (Glorious Goodwood, July 30) and the Great Voltiguer Stakes (York, August 19). In the last 18 years, we’ve seen 11 St Leger winners that had previously run in one of those trial races. Plus Logician won the Great Voltiguer Stakes before heading to St Leger glory.
It’s no surprise to see the O’Brien yard with a strong hand. We’ll have to wait until nearer the time to see their final entries, but with their Irish Derby winner Santiago, Gordon Stakes winner Mogul, Epsom Derby hero Serpentine and Epsom Oaks heroine Love all featuring prominently in the antepost market it looks like it’s going to be O’Brien’s year again – we’ll see! Enjoy!
Recent St Leger Winners
2019 – Logician (5/6 fav)
2018 – Kew Gardens (3/1) 2017 – Capri (3/1 fav)
2016 – Harbour Law (22/1) 2015 – Simple Verse (8/1) 2014 – Kingston Hill (9/4 fav) 2013 – Leading Light (7/2 fav) 2012 – Encke (25/1)
2011 – Masked Marvel (15/2) 2010 – Arctic Cosmos (12/1) 2009 – Mastery (14/1)
Key St Leger Trends
16/18 – Placed in the top 3 last time out 15/18 – Placed favourites
15/18 – Had 2 or 3 previous career wins 15/18 – Never raced at Doncaster before 14/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
14/18 – Had won a Group race before 13/18 – Had 4 or 5 previous runs that season 13/18 – Had won over at least 1m3f 12/18 – Winning distance of 1 length or more
11/18 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
11/18 – Had never raced over 1m6f or further before
10/18 – Officially rated 109 to 115
10/18 – Won last time out
8/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
8/18 – Ran in the Great Voltigeur last time out (3 won it)
5/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4/18 – Trained by John Gosden
4/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
3/18 – Ran in the Gordon Stakes last time out (2 won it)
3/18 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse (6 wins in total)
2/18 – Ridden by William Buick
2/18 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/18 – Winners from stall 1