EDDIE WOOD
More important advice from the master betting tactician
Future and recent form are vital elements in your selection process, and it is essential for you to consider them in your race analysis. It contributes to our understanding of a horse’s overall ability and is useful in future assessments. You must ask several pertinent questions in your initial enquiries: what rivals has your selection beaten or lost to, can the racing style of your horse be recognised and how consistent is their performance in deterioration, improvement, or repetition?
The most logical and reliable way to answer this is to examine the horse’s performance over a long period. This varies with each horse; some adapt extremely quickly whereas others are ponderous and frustrating. You must be careful in assessing the ability of inexperienced runners as there is a smaller foundation to base your judgement of proven ability. Only when the horse has raced on several occasions can we assume the ability of our horse on the prevalent race conditions.
However, this is not as simple as it seems. In TheLazyMan’sWaytoRead, AssessandInterpretForm, Eric
Bowers writes that the chapter “Race Form Reading” could have been called “how to read between the lines, because sometimes that is the only way to really be able to assess and interpret the form book. Even what one sees on the racecourse must be examined with a critical eye.”
That is why you should divide ability into three categories. Proven positive ability, is where there is enough evidence to support that your horse can win or get placed in today’s race. Your selection may be a previous course winner, marked with a capital C on the racecard. They may also be a previous distance winner, marked with a D, or a combination of both which is displayed as CD in bold.
Unproven ability is more troublesome to assess. It applies to inexperienced horses who may have shown the potential to win but have not had many opportunities to demonstrate their skills. It also applies to horses who have not raced before on the course, distance, going, or in the race category or Class.
This is taken to the extreme in horses with proven non-ability. These individuals may have made mistakes in their previous races or perhaps offered a mediocre run on the track and they show no sign of improvement.
These concepts are outlined in Braddock’s CompleteGuidetoHorseRace SectionandBetting, published by Longmans in 1983. He later describes the time element link to form, recent form over the last one to 14 days, less recent form over 15 to 28 days and old form which is 29 days or more.
According to Braddock, recent form is the most accurate reflection of a horse’s current form, fitness levels and overall wellbeing. The 15 to 28-day group is especially appropriate to use with two-year-olds. Flat race specialists and NH chasers typically need more time to recover from their exertions.
Past form over 29 days or more is not as relevant to your present race evaluation. It can only demonstrate what a horse may be capable of. However, comparing recent and past form is a good yardstick to assess if your horse has deteriorated, improved or maintained their average performance.
If your horse has won or has been placed in a top-class race months ago, you should not discount this fact.
Comments from the Form Book can also help us. This is primarily based around the descriptive comments and opinions of the race-readers in Raceform, the official Form Book. These descriptive comments and opinions provide a focus on certain horses and it is a bonus if you can be alert to any changes in your horse’s behaviour in either a positive or negative sense.
This approach was originally used in Bredwinner and in the original Secrets oftheTurf magazine. One of the most interesting comments, Never Placed to Challenge (nvr plcd to chal,) disappeared from the entries in Raceform race commentaries in the late nineties. following a court case.
A similar phrase, Never Near to Challenge (nvr nrr,) suggests that the horse may be outclassed, on an off day or the ground, course, or both, were unsuitable. It could also be that that the horse was not fully race fit.
In the late Eighties to early Nineties, I kept a close eye on horses with (never near to challenge) in the Form Book descriptions, particularly those that contested in handicaps. You can learn about the modus operandi of different trainers from researching the horses with the nnr comment.
Today, it is extremely difficult to make a profit backing horses purely on form. But if you take a similar approach with the never near to challenge horses (nnc) you will get to know those that are listed in your notes and how they are likely to perform.