FG dissenters would be seen as prize catch

John Drennan takes a look at some of the possible runners and riders should a new political party enter the race for seats in the Dail

THE initial impetus which suggested that a new political movement might be viable came from the success of Sean Gallagher's presidential campaign. In spite of a Sinn Fein-led dirty tricks campaign, Gallagher ran the veteran Labour candidate to the line.

When it comes to generating a critical mass of TDs, any new party will be closely monitoring the rise of disaffection within the Fine Gael ranks.

In particular, newer TDs such as Eoghan Murphy and Peter Mathews will be watched closely.

But a new political party could present veteran Fine Gael dissenters such as John Deasy, Billy Timmins and others within the defeated ranks of the attempted coup against Enda Kenny with a real challenge, or an opportunity, depending on how they viewed the rise of such a movement.

Any new party would also be targeting the ranks of the unprecedented numbers of independent TDs, many of whom face an uncertain political future.

Already the extraordinary collection of 25 independent TDs on the opposition benches represents the third biggest political bloc in an increasingly-difficult-to-control Dail.

And these numbers might be swollen further if the escalating crisis within Fine Gael over abortion continues.

Should Fine Gael experience a number of defections, independent TDs would soon be rivalling Labour’s (current) 32 TDs for the status of being the second biggest party in the Dail.

In spite of their scale, while the independents would be seen as providing a major recruiting ground for any new party, it might be more difficult to secure the support of TDs from that bloc than might first appear to be the case.

Within that grouping, figures such as Stephen Donnelly and Shane Ross are expected to provide the nucleus of any movement.

Other TDs within their ranks who would be coveted by any political party include Thomas Pringle, former PD TD Noel Grealish, who would be strongly guided by the views of Michael McDowell on such matters, Catherine Murphy, Denis Naughten and John Halligan.

But high-profile ideological politicians such as Clare Daly, Joe Higgins, Richard Boyd Barrett and the rest of the ULA TDs are unlikely to join any new party.

Others such as Mattie McGrath, Michael Healy Rae, Mick Wallace and Finian McGrath might, for a variety of reasons, not be seen as desirable recruits.

When it comes to the various Labour dissidents, it is unlikely that Tommy Broughan, Patrick Nulty or Willie Penrose would abandon the Labour flag.

However, the febrile political past of Colm Keaveney, who was at one point a PD before returning to the Labour ranks, means the strange charisma of the Galway East TD could be attractive for any new party.

Uncertainty, meanwhile, surrounds Roisin Shortall's future plans, but should she be tempted to join a new political movement her “iconic status” would give any new party a real sense of credibility.

The party would be looking closely at other disaffected younger Labour TDs and senators such as Michael McNamara and James Heffernan. The apparent revival of Fianna Fail means it is unlikely any of its TDs have any plans to abandon ship.

However, if this revival is not sustained, a bad local elections in 2014 could change the political intentions of TDs and senators like Niall Collins, Dara Calleary, Timmy Dooley, Billy Kelleher, Michael McGrath, Darragh O'Brien, Averil Power, Marc MacSharry and Sean Connick.

Interest will also be acute over the long-term intentions of talented outsiders like Elaine Byrne, Declan Ganley, Patricia Callan, Fiona O'Malley and Norah Casey.

Any new party is also likely to target independent senators such as John Crown, while the increasingly querulous relationship between Fine Gael and independent-politicised senators such as Mary Ann O'Brien may also bring an unexpected denouement.

Other figures who might be targeted by, or be interested in joining, such a movement include the New Beginnings advocate David Hall and Vincent P Martin.

The increasing interest in a new party may also pose a challenge for a number of new political advocacy groups such as We The Citizens.

Members of such groups, like Fiach Mac Conghail, the littleknown UCD academic David Farrell and Jane Suiter could find themselves accused of being political dilettantes should they fail to meet the challenge posed by the growing thirst for an Irish reform party.