FIVE SCENARIOS IN THE EVENT OF A BRITISH EXIT

BENIGN ENVIRONMENT

The first is a benign negotiating environment whereby there is good will all round, leading to a clear outcome and resulting in a win-win situation. Some might construe this as wishful thinking.

DAGGERS DRAWN

The second scenario is the other end of the spectrum, called the ‘Daggers Drawn’ scenario for the sake of illustration. These negotiations would be characterised by animosity and bad will, with an unpredictable outcome and would end up as a zero-sum game. Some would regard this as highly llikely.

CONFUSION

The third scenario lies in the middle of the spectrum. It would arise as a result of various developments, such as changes in governments and panic in the markets, as well as the sheer complexity of the negotiating process. It would be characterised by all-round confusion, giving rise to a messy outcome and with everybody losing out. Many fear this is the most likely of scenarios.

STUCK IN LIMBO

The fourth scenario is limbo land, whereby the two-year deadline would not be met and neither would it be extended. In that case, the UK would simply cease to be an EU member with nothing put in its place. The outcome would be uncertainty creating major economic damage the wholesale disruption of political relationships.

ENLIGHTENED SELF-INTEREST

Finally, there is the ideal scenario in which common sense would ensure that enlightened self-interest ohua ld the order of the day. In that instance, the negotiating style would be methodical, with a clear outcome based on an equitable balance of interests. Many fear that this is the least likely outcome.