Why there should be no hurry on Enda Kenny to resign as Taoiseach
The country is better served by a leader who can focus on government rather than elections, writes Philip Ryan
FINE Gael politicians are the only group of people who will directly benefit from Enda Kenny stepping down as Taoiseach and leader of their party.
Independent ministers, who took a gamble on Kenny’s credibility and went into government with the unpopular leader, may also see a much-needed boost in public confidence when he goes.
But for the rest of us, what is the advantage of the Taoiseach moving aside and allowing a new leader take the reins of Fine Gael and the Government?
We know Kenny has promised to step aside before the next election. Opinion polls show he is far from the most popular leader in the country, although public confidence in Kenny was up in Friday’s Paddy Power Red C survey.
All the same, Fine Gael backbenchers are concerned about the poor levels of public support for their leader.
The realisation that Fianna Fail has the power to pull down the Government whenever it so wishes has also fed into the fears of Fine Gael TDs who are bruised from the outcome of the election.
Depending on who you ask, backbenchers want him gone before or just after Christmas, or at the very least by next summer.
The last Sunday Independent/Millward Brown poll showed little more than half of Fine Gael supporters want Kenny to stay on.
In short, Fine Gaelers want him gone because the public see him as toxic and they are worried his presence is detrimental to their own chances of re-election.
But who cares about what they think? The majority of voters who voted in the General Election didn’t seem to care, so why start now?
Kenny’s departure certainly doesn’t benefit any of the established or smaller political parties.
For starters, Fianna Fail sees the Mayo man as its greatest asset in Government and the party is anxious he remain in place for as long as possible before the next election.
Micheal Martin and his minority government-facilitating TDs are chipping away at Kenny’s authority week by week by kicking up a fuss about every policy decision and threatening to pull the house down if their demands are not fulfilled.
Sinn Fein, which has its own leadership problems, should also be happy to capitalise on the public’s dislike of Kenny. However, the Red C poll showed 69pc of its supporters want him gone now, compared to 15pc of Fine Gael voters.
Sinn Fein is more concerned with targeting Fianna Fail voters as there is little gain from pursuing the Fine Gael vote.
The Shinners even created a new slogan for Fianna Fail — ‘the U-turn party’ — and keep accusing Martin of keeping Fine Gael in power, even though the Government is just three months old.
Kenny at the helm of Government and in the limelight is also a plus for the Labour Party, the Social Democrats and whatever other lefty party you’re having yourself.
Replacing him with any of his heirs apparent will reinvigorate Fine Gael and give the party the bounce in the polls it has been craving since the election.
Social Protection Minister Leo Varadkar is the public’s favourite to replace Kenny, but the increasingly competent Housing Minister Simon Coveney is impressing colleagues with his handling of the housing crisis. Tanaiste Frances Fitzgerald is also in the mix.
All three will inject new life into the party and also be forced to stand up to Fianna Fail in Government as this is sure to be a precondition of members supporting the next leader.
But as for the rest of us, there is little to no advantage in Kenny handing over his party, and the keys to the Exchequer, to a new leader.
The public at large is better served by a leader in their final term in office who is free from electoral concerns.
Whoever succeeds Kenny will be immediately on campaign footing, no matter how far away the next election is. Matters of party will supersede matters of Government and every decision will be taken with the election in mind.
On the other hand, a lame duck leader can be more daring and socially conscientious when they are not burdened by the weight of returning themselves and their party to office.
They can be steely in the face of resistance from colleagues, the Opposition or even the public when pursuing the implementation of politically sensitive policies.
US President Barack Obama tried to take on the powerful American gun lobby, albeit unsuccessfully, over the past four years and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair tirelessly pursued LGBT rights during his final years in office.
By the time the next election rolls around, Kenny will want to ensure he has secured his legacy as the country’s first two-term Fine Gael Taoiseach.
At present, he will be remembered as the leader who began the process of dragging the country back from the economic abyss.
Kenny’s stewardship of the country during its journey from the dark days of the financial crisis would soon be forgotten if we were to return to the era of austerity budgets.
And this is a real possibility as we enter the unknown political and economic realities of a post-Brexit EU.
Kenny will be eager to ensure the final deal is favourable to Ireland and that history shows he played an instrumental role in these negotiations.
The relationships he has developed with EU leaders over the years undoubtedly make him the best politician to represent Ireland at the table during these talks.
The Taoiseach will be aware his cynical attempt to shore up support through his ministerial and Seanad appoints rankled with the public.
There is no going back on this but it has bought him time to work on his legacy.
We have already seen some evidence of this in the Mayo TD’s decision to personally head up the Government’s north inner-city Dublin taskforce, which is aiming to regenerate one of country’s most disadvantaged areas.
Kenny will be anxious that the housing crisis and ongoing water charges fiasco do not define his leadership.
Finding a lasting solution to both matters will weigh heavily on his mind.
Kenny can and should now make decisions on key issues without considering the next election. These decisions should be scrutinised — but his leadership is a matter for Fine Gael politicians worried about own their election chances.
‘In short, Fine Gaelers want him gone as he is seen as toxic’