Jittery politics has woken up the nation
This unstable Government has been lacking in legislation since day one, says Paul Moran, and the public has taken notice
WITH the Dail now on its summer recess, it gives us the opportunity to evaluate how this administration has performed so far compared to where it was at the same time in 2011. In June of that year, Millward Brown conducted a poll to ascertain the mood of the nation following that February’s election. It was, in many ways, another world, with a different set of circumstances at play.
Even still, the change in the mood of the electorate, and the demeanour of the Government between now and then are striking. In 2011, the country was still crippled with recession and in the pocket of the Troika.
And yet, satisfaction with the Government at that juncture stood at 49pc. Of course, given the debacle of the previous Cowen administration in its dying days, there may well have been a sense that anything was better than what had gone previously.
But we still need to judge that FF/Labour Government on its own merits, and 49pc was the highest rating seen since the collapse of the economy.
Fast forward to our most recent Sunday Independent/ Millward Brown poll earlier this month, and satisfaction with the new Government was a rather underwhelming 28pc. While the proportions that support the Government have shrunk, this is still a worry for them.
It is also clear that while the economy is booming (ignoring the most recent GDP figures), the mood of the nation has changed. As Fine Gael found out to its cost in February, the economy on its own is not the only show in town anymore — it is how a government delivers on a fairer society. This is a task that will take time; and time may well be a precious commodity for this Government.
This Government so far has been characterised by infighting, mixed signals, a distinct lack of legislation, and a general sense of instability. It has been jittery since day one. The rather unique arrangement in place has led to a situation in which both the Government, and the Opposition, engage in a period of shadow boxing, as they size up the new political paradigm. And the public has taken note.
There is also the distraction of ongoing speculation about Enda Kenny’s leadership. In 2011 he projected a sense of energy and enthusiasm that is lacking recently. This year, it was telling to hear his remarks in the US on St Patrick’s Day that he was not looking forward to going home to form a Government. While they were said in jest, they may have turned out to be prophetic.
In 2011, he achieved a satisfaction rating of 65pc overall, rising to 75pc among his own supporters. He was by far the most popular leader post-election.
During the same period in 2016, overall satisfaction is at 27pc. Even among his own (diminished) party base, satisfaction has dipped to 64pc. While this is arguably still a respectable
‘There is a firm belief that the Government will last no more than two years’
result, it falls well short of the comparable figures for the leaders of FF and SF.
The rumours of discontent and the constant sniping at his leadership will have done nothing to lift the mood.
In addition, our most recent poll at the beginning of July suggested that over half (56pc) believe he should resign. Among his party faithful, a rather lacklustre 54pc endorsed him. And this was before the internal grumblings became more public.
Given the precarious situation we find ourselves in post-Brexit, whereby uncertainty is the buzzword all round, there is a desire by many for the Government to have a steady hand on the tiller. Speculation about possible abdications/coups does nothing to help.
Coupled with this, there is a firm belief that the Government will last no more than two years (72pc believing this to be the case). With an administration struggling to work out its own ground rules, and being propped up by a resurgent Fianna Fail, it is apparent that while we find ourselves in a better place financially than in 2011, we are ironically further from seeing a clearer direction ahead. Paul Moran is an associate director with Millward Brown