A new Fine Gael leader will pave way for ‘Kexit’

Enda Kenny can steady the government ship while his party decides on his replacement,

WE often complain that party political events are now so choreographed that they have become boring. Think of your average party conference. There are no fights, no real debates. We don’t get the party, we get the mask the party wants us to see.

We could not complain that last week’s Fine Gael think-in was pure political choreography. The mask slipped.

Two Fine Gael TDs, Brendan Griffin and Jim Daly, publicly called for Enda Kenny to announce his retirement date. It was reported that Cabinet ministers were privately talking about the ‘Kenny problem’. Apparently even his supporters acknowledge that it is too big an issue not to deal with. The time limit appears to be Christmas. Whether that’s the time he stands down or announces his plan to stand down is unclear, but there’s clearly unease in Fine Gael, and it was on full view last week.

What is ‘the Kenny problem’? I don’t know the contents of the Fine Gael review of its election campaign, but if it doesn’t discuss the Taoiseach’s performance in the campaign it won’t be of much use. Kenny, we know, is not good on media, but at least he was always ebullient. He normally can’t pass a four-year-old without offering a high five.

But in this year’s election campaign Kenny was lacklustre. And he wasn’t just lacklustre, he was lacklustre and everywhere. In 2011, the Fine Gael strategists carefully managed Kenny’s media appearances. Many of the big guns, such as Noonan, Varadkar and Reilly did press conferences in Dublin to discuss policy. Kenny was travelling the constituencies, busy shaking hands. He was seen, but not heard.

In 2016, Kenny took a much more front-andcentre role in the campaign. It didn’t work. It was especially damaging because Micheal Martin had a good election. He looked much more convincing in the role of Taoiseach, and this was reflected in the polls. The RTE exit poll showed that voters thought Martin performed better and for some of them it shifted their vote to Fianna Fail.

So ‘the Kenny problem’ is that Fine Gael can’t afford to face another election with Kenny as leader. The minicrisis on the Apple appeal and John Halligan’s ongoing rumblings serve to show how shaky the Government is. Michael Noonan is in poor health and a series of poor performances demonstrate that he can no longer steady the ship when Kenny doesn’t perform. Fine Gael TDs are nervous that an election could be sprung on them. But the Fine Gael constitution is designed so that the leadership contest should take about three weeks. They could cut it to about a week if they had to, but if it’s the start of an election campaign they don’t have a week. They’d have to just take a vote of the parliamentary party to choose a leader for the campaign.

The Taoiseach says it’s not a problem. He has his mojo, he has a mandate, and he has a plan. It was Enda Kenny the streetfighter statesman.

He came out fighting, with the obviously selfserving line that with Brexit and the Apple appeal, now is a crucial time in the nation’s politics. It isn’t a time to change leader, he suggested. It was also put about that he would be hard to replace. His ‘sources’ say he is widely respected in Europe and to lose him would be to harm Irish interests. It might be true that he’s respected, but that hardly precludes a new Taoiseach from gaining respect.

He pointed out that he has a mandate from the Dail, though he must admit it’s not a very strong one. The problem is that it could be removed once Fianna Fail or a few Independents tell him his time is up.

He may have a plan for his stepping down, but if his colleagues don’t know what it is, rumblings will continue. And when it’s mooted that he sees himself in office for another two years, this will panic his TDs.

Does this mean, as everyone seems to think, that Kenny’s end is imminent? I don’t think so.

Kenny has the advantage of being in office, and unless he wants to go it will be dangerous and messy for anyone to force him out.

The key issue is that Kenny does have a mandate. If Simon Coveney or Leo Varadkar were to replace Kenny, what would happen? There is an assumption that the new Fine Gael leader would be elected Taoiseach.

But why would Micheal Martin want to give his constituency colleague Simon Coveney or anyone else the mantle of Taoiseach — something that brings great prestige and respect. Martin’s and Fianna Fail’s big advantage is that he has experience — he looks like a Taoiseach. It’s a useful electoral weapon to have. Coveney or Varadkar don’t have it, but they would if either actually were elected Taoiseach.

Martin could reasonably point out that Fianna Fail abstained on the vote of Taoiseach to facilitate a government being formed, not to facilitate internal Fine Gael wrangling. While its agreement with Fine Gael allows for the reshuffling of ministers, it doesn’t mention a change of Taoiseach.

Fianna Fail is under no obligation to allow Coveney or Varadkar’s election, and it would not want to oblige either of them.

So a change of leader then could mean an election. Kenny knows this, and will use it to protect his position. But it doesn’t rid Fine Gael of ‘the Kenny problem’.

The way out is for Kenny to approach the main leadership contenders in Fine Gael. He should offer to step down as leader of Fine Gael immediately, but point out that no one else will be elected Taoiseach without a general election. He can inform them he will remain as Taoiseach for as long as the government can run.

The new leader can then be elected in relative safety, maybe after the budget and before Christmas. This will settle nerves in the party. Kenny, with the new party leader could then think about reshuffling the Cabinet. Michael Noonan has done great service but it is time for him to retire. A reshuffle appointing a new finance minister with Kenny as leader might be seen as picking favourites. A new Fine Gael leader and Kenny as Taoiseach can choose who to put there without it upsetting power within the party.

It might suit Fine Gael to have a strong voice in government, but one that can vary the line from the Government’s. He or she could be more direct in criticism of the Opposition or Government colleagues than Kenny can afford to be.

For Kenny it makes him the master of his own destiny. He will be free to concentrate on keeping the Government going for as long as he can. He’s shown himself to be a good mediator and might manage better if he doesn’t have the pressure of being simultaneously the referee and person responsible for fighting Fine Gael’s corner.

When Kenny says he has a “clear plan and process” for his exit, I suspect this is what he has in mind. But he’ll have to move soon, or as last week has shown, others might make his decision for him.

‘The Taoiseach has his mojo and a plan. It was Enda Kenny the streetfighter’