‘Soft’ Brexit would be best outcome
THE UK government gives every indication it remains uncertain how best to proceed after the decision, by a slim majority six months ago, to leave the European Union, other than to have confirmed by a significant majority in the House of Commons last week that the will of the people be honoured. That is the easy part, no matter how a majority in the Commons may wish it to be otherwise. The difficulty arises as to how to give effect to that decision. The level of apparent indecision has given rise to informed speculation that the hardest of a hard Brexit is on the cards. Such an outcome would be wholly counterproductive for the UK and the EU, but especially for Ireland.
The UK Prime Minister rejects the principle of free movement and the authority of the European Court of Justice, so it will be impossible for the UK to stay in the single market, but it remains possible that she will seek to achieve a free trade agreement that provides zero tariffs on goods, alongside some access to EU services markets. To achieve such an outcome, the UK government will need to depend on the goodwill of Europe, but the conduct of its ministers in recent weeks has all but eroded whatever goodwill may have existed.
The Government here can play a role to assist the UK in its aim for a high level of economic integration with the EU, which would also be in the interests of this country. Businesses and financial firms in the UK, and throughout Europe, including in Ireland, are also anxious that arrangements be put in place that could allow the UK a period in the customs union and parts of the single market, while they consider their future plans. However, for such a ‘soft’ Brexit to occur, the UK must continue to sign up to free movement, European Court of Justice rulings and budget payments. The case for the UK to remain in the customs union is strong, primarily as it would lead to fewer bureaucratic delays and barriers at the UK-EU border, and minimal disruption to integrated supply chains, as well as making it easier to avoid restoring controls on Northern Ireland’s border with this country. The repeated comments of Michel Barnier, the European Commission’s chief negotiator, that he sees the impact of the Border as a priority in the negotiations are to be welcomed, but at this stage he is unable to rule out the return of a hard border on this island. The Government here must be to the fore at this point in the negotiations to try to prevent such an outcome, as well as to minimise several other unavoidable negative impacts of Brexit.
Last week, the UK took a significant step closer to Brexit when MPs voted to back the Prime Minister’s plan to trigger Article 50 by the end of March. Also last week, the Supreme Court in the UK heard arguments in a legal challenge to Brexit, judgment on which has been reserved to January. The Supreme Court has been told that the UK government believes it has the prerogative to unilaterally withdraw from international treaties, even where commitment to those treaties is enshrined in statutory law. As a consequence, the possible implications for agreements such as the Good Friday Agreement are serious.
The Government here must, therefore, seek a commitment from the UK that the Good Friday Agreement remains fundamental to the relationship between both countries, and from the EU, which has stated that it is aware of the importance of that agreement.