Bus Eireann figures stand corrected but issues persist

There is a growing market for bus travel in Ireland, with independent operators set to benefit, writes Sean Barrett

TWO weeks ago on these pages, I presented data from the National Transport Authority on the routes and fleet numbers of the independent bus operators and their carriage of free-travel passengers. I also cited evidence of their services off the motorways and in rural areas largely without subsidy and noted the lack of regulatory evidence that the sector included rogue operators.

In contrast to Dublin Bus, Bus Eireann does not publish its fleet size in its annual report. Independent research on productivity at Bus Eireann, therefore, relies on other sources of published data. The Department of Transport, Tourism and Sport (DTTAS), the National Transport Authority (NTA) and the Irish Government Economic and Evaluation Service have, however, published Bus Eireann’s fleet data.

‘Transport Trends’, a joint publication of the Irish Government Economic and Evaluation Service and the DTTAS (April 2016), reports that “based on other NTA data, there were 2,597 buses providing services in 2014” and 453 of these were Bus Eireann. That number was included in my article here two weeks ago. Bus Eireann staffing per the “buses providing services” measure is 3.1 times that of its independent competitors.

An earli- er publication found that “the total Bus Eireann fleet is 637 buses”. This was published by the DTTAS through its Economic and Financial Evaluation Unit in 2015 and referred to 2013. Bus Eireann staffing per bus on this “total fleet” measure is 2.2 times that of its independent competitors.

The most recent figure for fleet size in Bus Eireann is the company’s own figure of 1,170, as supplied by its press office in correspondence with this newspaper. This implies a current staffing level of 2.1 staff per bus.

The Coach Tourism and Transport Council members’ current fleet of 1,500 buses and 2,500 staff has 1.7 staff per bus. On this measure Bus Eireann has 24pc more staff per bus than its competitors. Recent reports that Bus Eireann has 2,600 staff rather than 2,487 would raise the margin of extra staff to 29pc.

All this fleet data confirms a serious productivity problem at Bus Eireann. It is a major topic for public debate involving, inter alia, the operators of transport, the sector’s regulatory and administrative agencies, independent researchers and the media.

Productivity will inevitably dominate the Bus Eireann deliberations at the WRC. It is reported that over 50 obstacles to higher productivity are on the agenda. One union perspective is that the company has excessive numbers of managers. The company is reported to be seeking some 300 redundancies. Management says that Bus Eireann may soon run out of money. The goal that the company should be a wage leader in its sector increases pressure for higher productivity.

The success of the independent bus operators in competition with Expressway is the immediate cause of the present problems. Higher frequency, longer hours of operation and lower fares have rapidly grown the independents’ share of the market and generated financial problems for Bus Eireann.

When the public service obligation (PSO) routes come up for competitive tendering, it is likely that the commercial routes’ result will be replicated.

The 345 routes run by the independents operated over the last two weeks. Bus Eireann lost out both on passenger revenues lost and on PSO payments suspended during the strike.

The debate on productivity has changed the previous emphasis on how to prevent new market entrants and how to increase their cost base in order to make them less competitive.

NTA data indicates that between 2012 and 2015, passenger numbers on the contested bus routes from Dublin to Cork and Dublin to Limerick rose by 61pc and 50pc respectively. There is a growing market for bus transport in Ireland, which was obstructed for decades by public policy. Productivity will determine how fast these new markets will grow and which operators will attract the growth. It is a public policy debate with important implications in transport and across the wider economy.

‘The company is seeking some 300 redundancies’