The scary truth is that we are on our own in this
Deep down, we thought that the British would save us from Brexit but that won’t be happening, writes Eilis O’Hanlon
THERE seems to be some irritation in Irish political circles at the British government’s decision to go for a snap election; but it makes a deal of sense.
The EU is taking an increasingly hardline stance with Downing Street over Brexit — reportedly demanding, for example, that Britain pay for the relocation of EU agencies from London, which doesn’t sound like the actions of people inclined to be generous — so why wouldn’t Britain want the strongest possible government to take a hard line in return? The Tories currently have a small majority, and face a weak and divided opposition. There might not be a better opportunity to strengthen their hand.
Most criticism in Ireland has centred on the fact that an election in the UK inevitably means another visit to the polls by voters in the North; but Sinn Fein is making no secret of the fact that it wants another Assembly election anyway, and the Taoiseach insisted in his most recent call to Prime Minister Theresa May that there be no return to direct rule even if the two main parties in Northern Ireland fail to agree on a deal to restore power sharing, which implies Dublin’s support for another election too.
If that happens on the same day as the Westminster election, or even shortly afterwards, what difference does it make? The six counties cannot expect to take precedence in thinking in Downing Street, especially when it’s SF’s deter- mination to push for a divisive border poll rather than make the devolved institutions work which is the main obstacle.
Furthermore, it’s repeatedly said that those fabled money markets need clarity above else, and since the referendum vote last June there’s been nothing but confusion about where Britain now stands, with noise on both sides of the Leave/Remain divide about whether the country should go for a hard or soft Brexit, or put a stop to its plans to pull out of the EU altogether.
In two months’ time, that debate will be settled one way or another, nicely in time for the start of negotiations proper. That can’t be a bad thing.
The bigger problem for Ireland is that politicians and commentators alike have no more come to terms with Britain’s decision to leave the European Union than they have with Donald Trump’s tenancy of the White House.
Everyone is still waiting hopefully for some magical deus ex machina which will put an end to the Brexit project. They hoped that the courts might find a way of empowering Remainers into at least delaying the triggering of Article 50. It didn’t happen.
They hoped that a groundswell of opposition to Brexit would make the Westminster establishment think again. That didn’t happen either.
Instead, polls suggest that Remainers are resigned to what’s coming. Polls have become notoriously unreliable, but there doesn’t appear to be any great movement that way.
Some seismic event might still stop Brexit in its tracks, but if it doesn’t then Ireland has to adjust to the uncomfortable new reality that Britain’s a goner from the EU.
All the economic indicators suggest that this will affect Ireland more than any other European country, since our economies and cultures are more intimately entwined than most, so it could be that the collective anger and dismay about Brexit is not because the British are doing something stupid — that remains to be seen, and, even if they are, that’s their business — but because we don’t have any collective confidence in our own government to make things right afterwards.
Deep down, we thought the Brits would pull back from the brink, thereby saving us in the process. If they don’t, and the calling of a snap election suggests that they have no intention of putting on the handbrake, then we’re on our own. That’s what’s scary.
Of course, there is a statistical possibility the Brexiteers could lose the UK election in June — but even the most reckless gambler would hesitate to bet on that outcome.
Practically the first thing that Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said after the election was called was that he would be fighting for a “fairer Brexit”. Many in the Labour Party would rather that he fought not to have Brexit at all.
That would have left the door open for a pro-Remain electoral pact with EU enthusiasts in the Liberal Democrats. With 70pc of Labour voters backing Remain in last year’s referendum, it might have gone down well in Remain constituencies, desperate above all else to prevent another Tory victory.
Corbyn’s own euroscepticism, albeit that it comes from a socialist analysis of a federal Europe, is an insurmountable barrier to any deal with other anti-Tory forces; whilst anyone still relying on a Liberal Democrat revival at the polls has not been paying attention to British political history.
In a first-past-the-post system, the Lib Dems will never be strong enough to ride to the rescue on their own. The numbers just don’t add up.
Over 48pc in Britain voted to remain in the EU. They have not transferred allegiance to the party which most strongly supports that.
There are some provisos. There always are. Theresa May is not a great campaigner or speaker, and was fortunate to win last summer’s Tory leadership challenge. She needed her opponents to shoot themselves in the foot. One by one, they did just that. That makes her lucky, and she’s been an effective leader since, but she’s still not a great battler.
Corbyn, by contrast, is actually quite good on the hustings. He doesn’t appear to relish doing the day-to-day legwork of an Opposition leader, but on the two occasions that he’s faced a fight to first become and then stay on at the helm of his party, his energy levels and determination have increased markedly.
It’s possible to map out scenarios where he could inspire a Bernie Sanders-style surge by the dormant Left; but his negatives are so high amongst the public that British voters don’t seem to trust or warm to him even when they agree with his policies. He was fast out of the blocks last week, making statements, giving speeches, but so was his predecessor Ed Miliband for all the good it did him in 2015.
Corbyn, a career Trotskyite dissentient, is already deemed less trustworthy by voters than Ed, and the Tories haven’t even got started on him yet. That deafening silence from Tory headquarters suggests a confidence that they have enough firepower to take Corbyn down in their own good time, and win big.
Mrs May’s not even that good when it comes to public debating, but she regularly beats him during Prime Minister’s Questions all the same.
The other proviso is that it could all be a cunning plan by Mrs May to use a stronger position after the election to negotiate a softer Brexit, because she will be less reliant on the hardline nationalist wing of the Tory party to get the final deal through the House of Commons. It’s important not to be seduced into complacency by wish-fulfilment fantasies, though.
The most realistic scenario remains a stronger Tory government, with a prime minister entrenched in power for the foreseeable future, leading to a harder Brexit, with Ireland left on the sidelines to face the consequences. In which case the real question is not “what the hell are the Brits doing now?” but “what the hell are the Irish going to do next?”
‘Even the most reckless gambler would not bet against a big Tory win’