Ireland’s eyes are shut to all euro visions
With Brexit and a UK general election looming, we need to have an honest debate about Irexit,
THE only thing that surprised me about Theresa May’s decision to call a snap general election on June 8 was that I was surprised. At such a time changes come thick and fast. We should not be surprised at anything that happens until the world settles down again, as inevitably it will. More changes are coming, hopefully good, but it is very difficult to ride a tiger.
May, for understandable reasons, is unable to resist the temptation to increase her majority fivefold. She might succeed in doing so. Possibly not. It is a calculated gamble, one that Gordon Brown ducked when he replaced Tony Blair. Perhaps May is made of sterner stuff.
The result of the election is not guaranteed despite all the lazy talk about it being a foregone conclusion. Elections never are. The Liberal Democrats could stage a recovery. The SNP could hold its seats in Scotland. Labour voters could re-elect their MPs despite Jeremy Corbyn’s low standing in the polls.
Voters should never be taken for granted. They could react badly to May’s obvious opportunism in calling the election. She takes advantage of Corbyn’s weakness, and she hopes to take control of her own party. The latter point is as important as the majority she seeks. However, if it does not reflect her wishes or support her policies it is not of much use to her.
May needs a large majority not just to ensure that the House of Lords does not block her negotiations but that the City, the courts and the Remainer wing of the media, including the BBC, don’t either.
It is important to think beyond the parliamentary arithmetic to the need to counter what could be called ‘a subversive brotherhood’ or ‘fifth column’. This malevolent and undemocratic body of people would dearly love to reverse the Brexit vote. If May comes back with a majority of less than 100 it could be seen as a defeat. The Remainers will re-double their efforts to thwart Brexit.
It is my belief that the British, during the election, will turn inwards. Perhaps they need to do so to gather their strength before making the great break from the EU. What they are doing is no small thing.
The impressive decision of the House of Lords committee on Brexit: UK-Ireland relations in Dublin last December, which I wrote about in the Sunday Independent at the time, was treated hopelessly by the Irish Government and by commentators. Whether it is the result of constitutional referenda (Nice 1 and Lisbon 1), advice to avoid joining the euro, warnings about overheating the economy in the new decade, or the British parliament sending this state a strong but diplomatic message about the need to protect the relationship between both states after Brexit, official Ireland (and its cheerleaders) ignored what they found inconvenient to address. ‘Official Ireland’ is still following that evasive pattern.
It is my hope that the British government, following the election, will find the cohesion and the strength to conclude Brexit successfully. I have no doubt that May understands that one well-focused country can easily outmanoeuvre a group of 27 very disparate countries. The British have had their backs to the wall before (as have we). They (and we) know how to deal with that situation. I’m not sure that Brussels realises that.
The vexed issue of Ireland heading away from Britain, instead of co-operating, is a key problem. Brexit will force this state to take a long hard look at itself, where its interests lie and where it is going. The real- isation, since the referendum in the UK, that the rhetoric of the last 40 years won’t pass muster after Brexit explains much of the outpourings of an overwrought establishment. This is an embarrassment. It is a worrying sight to see. We have to be clear: Ireland was never at the heart of Europe. (The good folk running this society are not familiar with maps). As long as the UK was in the EU they could get away with misplacing our geographical location.
Enda Kenny is putting far too much emphasis on EU support. His relationship with May is nothing more than a friendly holding of hands. He thinks it is more. She thinks less. Does it go any further? Brief telephone calls? But what do they say to each other? His are very limited gestures, seeking help from Holland and Denmark. Britain is our main route to markets.
Trying to keep faith with the EU is a mistake. The EU does not deserve it and we might find ourselves in a small group. Other member states will cut deals under the table with the UK as the negotiations unfold. The fact that we are unable to identify where our national interest lies does not mean that other member states won’t recognise where their national interest lies. I hope we don’t wake up to that too late.
Brexit and the forthcoming general election have major implications for Northern Ireland but not necessarily in the way we believe. Brexit has brought reunification closer. Nevertheless, we are putting reunification too high. Apart from anything else, the Republic’s establishment doesn’t really want it. They should be challenged on this. What they pretend to want might be what they get, whether they want it or not! It would be ironic indeed if Brexit brought reunification closer. We could be bewildered, given the opposition to Brexit before the referendum and the panicked reaction to it afterwards.
Sinn Fein’s inexplicable, foolish opposition to Brexit is like John Redmond’s mistake in 1914 in backing Britain in World War I. It would be as well for all concerned to remember the great slogan of that time: We support neither King nor Kaiser but Ireland. Have we gone daft?
I wrote earlier this year about the importance of Ireland to our trade achievements; how we should be getting ready to jump into the lifeboats if we don’t achieve better trade options. Well, it hasn’t happened yet. Talking to Denmark and Holland will not help. We need an eyes-wide-open approach to the EU. We need an honest debate about Irexit. Not one conducted by the politicians. We need a Plan B.
It is understandable that much of the commentary since the election has been about Brexit. The election is a crucial part of Britain’s pathway out of the EU. The election, however, is about much more than that. It is also about the direction Britain takes after Brexit. They have a huge mountain to climb but they must first escape from the EU. An article in the Daily Telegraph last week about Britain’s young workers being unable to read and do basic mathematics is symptomatic of the huge problems they face.
May wanted to address the loss of control of British corporates after becoming prime minister. She was thwarted by her cabinet. It remains to be seen what she will do if she secures her 100-seat majority and a successful Brexit; but I would like to think that she knows what needs to be done and I wish her well.
There are lessons for us as well. I hope to return to them at another time, not least because I am not convinced that Irish commentators are, in general, aware that Brexit and Irexit can only be a first step in tackling the major trading problems faced by Britain and Ireland.
The fact that I have chosen to write about the British general election underscores, for me at any rate, the importance for Ireland of Brexit, why the British people felt Brexit was necessary and why we, too, need to take stock of where we are and where we are going in ‘Europe’.
‘Trying to keep faith with the EU is a mistake. It does not deserve it... ’