Martin’s job is on the line if he can’t take out Varadkar
Fianna Fail leader has one more chance to be elected as Taoiseach — or he will risk sparking internal turmoil, says Philip Ryan
MICHEAL Martin was first elected to the Dail on June 14, 1989. Leo Varadkar was 10 years old. Next Wednesday, almost 28 years later to the day, Martin will facilitate the election of Varadkar as Taoiseach.
Martin, without question, has had a highly successful career in politics but has yet to claim the ultimate prize. He has held three ministries — the first when he was 36 years old — and, of course, is the leader of Fianna Fail. He took on Fine Gael and the critics to make major gains at the last general election and opinion polls consistently show he is the country’s most popular political leader.
But that was when he was going toe-to-toe with Enda Kenny. Now, it’s all about ‘Leo’, as the new Fine Gael leader likes to be called.
Young, gay and the son of an immigrant father — Leo’s very modern and cool. However, the country’s new leader was forced on the nation thanks to an internal conspiracy by Fine Gael parliamentarians and is entirely untested with the public.
Remember, his own party membership didn’t want him there. A mere 3,946 members, councillors and parliamentarians picked him as their leader, compared to 7,051 who backed Coveney. Not to mention Coveney only had to campaign for a few weeks (compared to Varadkar’s two years) to poll neck-and-neck with his rival among public voters.
The Fine Gael parliamentary party may have misjudged their messiah’s popularity with the public. You never know, maybe the country isn’t as in awe with Leo as his colleagues believe. Time will tell.
The most recent opinion polls bode well for the new Fine Gael leader. Anyway, back to Micheal Martin and what the future holds for Fianna Fail in the Varadkar era.
The 56-year-old Martin didn’t like it when he was asked about the age gap between him and Varadkar at a press conference last week.
“I don’t feel old at all — it’s a ridiculous proposition,” he insisted. “That’s not a concern and I will be leading Fianna Fail into the next general election.”
But does he intend to continue as Fianna Fail leader if he doesn’t beat Varadkar at the next general election?
“At the last election, despite all the negative predictions, I think we did better than everybody predicted. I can assure you we will do better again next time out,” he said.
It should be pointed out that there is no serious discussion among Fianna Fail TDs and senators about Martin’s leadership. Fianna Fail outperformed expectations at the last general election and parliamentary party members, for the most part, are happy with how things are going.
However, this will all change should the opinion polls continue to show a significant gap between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael.
Martin will also have to address his leadership in a very serious way should he fail to become Taoiseach after the next general election.
It is likely Mary Lou McDonald will replace Gerry Adams as Sinn Fein leader sooner rather than later. So if Martin is not Taoiseach, he will start looking like yesterday’s man in Opposition — with a new young leader of Sinn Fein standing to his right and Varadkar and his young guns facing him down from the Government benches.
Age is not a drawback in politics — just look at 68-year-old Jeremy Corbyn and 75-year-old Bernie Sanders — and Martin is far from past it at 56. But you do only get so many shots at the title before questions start getting asked. One aspect which plays to Martin’s advantage in a scenario where he loses the next election is the lack of an obvious replacement.
Michael McGrath, who shares a constituency with the Fianna Fail leader, is regularly touted as his boss’s successor. Under the pretext of Brexit meetings, McGrath has been touring the country meeting the membership and councillors as part of an effort quietly to build up support should a vacancy arise, as they say. He attended Brexit meetings in Galway, Sligo and Kerry recently.
“McGrath is definitely working the chicken dinner circuit at he moment,” one of his Dail colleagues said last week. Another Fianna Fail TD said: “This is the type of thing you have to do when you are an ambitious young politician.”
Varadkar would be the first to agree with this.
McGrath certainly has the skills to take over from Martin and has outperformed his Fianna Fail colleagues over the past six years. His campaigns on mortgage and motor insurance have struck a chord with the public. He is a solid media performer and popular among colleagues. But replacing Martin with a leader from the same Cork constituency could be an issue and might limit Fianna Fail’s ambitions to expand in Dublin.
McGrath is believed to have feared the prospect of Coveney becoming Taoiseach more than Martin, with party members suspecting he feared it could damage his leadership ambitions. With a Taoiseach and Sinn Fein leader in the capital, there would still be an appetite for a Fianna Fail leader in Cork.
Speaking of Dublin, another Fianna Fail TD spoken about as a future party leader is Jim O’Callaghan. Big Jim the barrister doesn’t look or sound like a Fianna Failer but there is something about the well-spoken senior counsel which impresses party members.
They are not used to posh professionals running for the party and are deferential to what they believe is his superior knowledge on affairs of the State. Martin is also known to be a fan of O’Callaghan since he was the party’s legal adviser. The fact he’s Dublin-based is an advantage too and the first-time TD quickly developed a national profile as the party’s justice spokesman throughout the many Garda scandals.
However, he is cautious to the point of fault on some political issues and questions are raised over his ability to ‘play the game’ in Leinster House.
He regularly turns down broadcast interviews and refuses to comment on topics under his portfolio, leaving his colleagues to take up the slack.
For instance, how many times have you heard Mayo TD Dara Calleary or Meath East’s Thomas Byrne on the radio talking about justice?
O’Callaghan’s wishy-washy responses on Garda Commissioner Noirin O’Sullivan and his sliding scale of confidence in both her and Justice Minister Frances Fitzgerald has done Fianna Fail no favours. The public is worn out by Garda controversies and is ready to say goodbye to O’Sullivan — but Fianna Fail, under O’Callaghan’s guidance, has been slow to catch up with the public mood.
O’Callaghan also spends a lot of time down at the Four Courts working as a barrister which has raised eyebrows among some TDs from his own party and others. Although there are no rules against him practising law.
While he is spoken highly of in some sections of the party, there is a danger he could fall into the same trap as James Reilly did when he made the transition from doctor to politician. Professional experience is always welcome in public life but understanding the cut-throat business of politics is far more important.
Carlow-Kilkenny TD and long-time Fianna Fail agitator John McGuinness would also still have leadership ambitions and is quietly biding his time.
He is less publicly confrontational with his leader during this Dail term but this does not mean he has a new found respect for Martin.
Calleary is also mentioned in dispatches as a future leader, as is Cork North Central TD Billy Kelleher.
All the same, Martin’s future looks bright and, should he fail to beat Varadkar next time around, he could easily be expected to put up a good fight against any of his wouldbe successors.
‘You only get so many shots at the title before the questions start...’