Cabinet moves won’t change politics — but they point to the way ahead

By picking Leo Varadkar, Fine Gael abandoned its ‘just society’ core and lurched to the right, writes Willie O’Dea

LEO Varadkar is now discovering that the Taoiseach’s prerogative to appoint and disappoint comes at quite a price. By Wednesday afternoon, or possibly even Tuesday night, most Cabinet Ministers — especially those entering or leaving government — will have a good idea as to their fate.

As one who has experienced the delight and the pain of receiving and of not receiving that call, I know how they feel.

Not only have they the anxious wait, they have the added exquisite torture of having their abilities, frailties, successes and failures discussed daily on air and in print.

At the risk of adding to their anguish, might I suggest that the make-up of Varadkar’s first Cabinet will not be the major determinant in how our politics develop.

The names and/or the possible departmental changes he makes will not change politics. What they will do is reflect the direction change that Varadkar wishes to make, though it may be tempered by the way he won the leadership.

The accusation that Varadkar is not attuned to the concerns and worries of ordinary people was confirmed and compounded when it was proven in hard numbers that he is not even in tune with the vast majority of the longstanding members of his own party.

They knew that Varadkar was a racing certainty to win the Fine Gael leadership and yet they still voted for the other guy.

One of the key reasons was that the other guy’s leadership platform was built on the “just society” programme — an approach to politics that has driven and motivated the Fine Gael party since the late 1960s.

By opting for Varadkar the parliamentary party opted, consciously and deliberately, not only to abandon its “just society” core but to lurch to the right and lurch, as Trump would say, ‘bigly’.

I can see why they have done it. In their eyes, they are moving to ground where they have no challenger, especially Fianna Fail ones. But, there is a reason why there are no serious challengers: it is because most voters are not there either.

Varadkar’s strategy is not only to move Fine Gael to the right, but also to move a chunk of voters, predominantly urban ones, there too. That task will not be so simple.

But this Fine Gael move to the right is not the only political development we can expect this year.

There is more than likely another one due after the summer — and no, I am not referring to a possible snap election, rather I am thinking of the imminent leadership change in Sinn Fein.

Note I said “change”, not election or contest. Neither Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland nor the Sinn Fein here in the South does elections, but just like the Tory party in the 1940s and 1950s or the great comrades of today in North Korea or Laos, their new leaders emerge without reference to the parliamentarians or the party membership.

When that change happens and Mary Lou McDonald becomes the leader of Sinn Fein in the South, political life will become more complex and difficult for the other parties on the left.

While Mr Adams will not be relinquishing any actual control to Mary Lou, he no longer will be the face on the posters or the guy leading for them in the TV debates.

Replacing a whiff of cordite with a whiff of Chanel may allow them to occupy the territory held by a Labour Party now stubbornly stuck on 6pc.

It is only a few months since Ms McDonald announced a major political volte-face and signalled that Sinn Fein could consider participating in government as a minority party.

So, just as Fine Gael heads to the right, Sinn Fein hopes to seize and occupy a bigger piece of territory on the left. The result is that a bigger zone in the centre is potentially set to open up between them.

That middle ground is not going to fall into anyone’s lap. Rather, it must be attracted by a policy platform that recognises that those with aspirations need both a political voice and a political champion.

Not only should Fianna Fail be that champion, it must be that champion to stop Fine Gael on the right and Sinn Fein, PBP etc on the left taking our politics back to where the UK was in the late 1960s and the 1970s, lurching from the ideological left to the dogmatic right without any coherence or direction. It cannot allow or facilitate another wasted decade.

‘This Fine Gael move to the right is not the only political development that we can expect to see this year...’