Squeezed middle want tax cuts as Leo soars — poll
THE squeezed middle are throwing their support behind the Government but want to be rewarded with tax cuts in the Budget, a Sunday Independent/Kantar Millward Brown opinion poll has revealed.
The exclusive opinion poll shows confidence in the Government has soared to a six-year high since the appointment of Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach, but those backing the new Fine Gael leader now expect to have more takehome pay in their pockets after the Budget.
The number satisfied with the Government has jumped a massive 13 points to 40pc, which is by far the highest level of support for a Fine Gael-led administration since the 2011 general election.
Satisfaction with the Government is higher among professional and working voters (49pc) and those living in Dublin (54pc) where the economic recovery has improved at a faster rate than other parts of the country.
In return for this dramatic rise in support, more than two in five (41pc) white-collar voters want to see tax cuts in the Budget, while around one in three (35pc) want the Government to focus on spending.
Meanwhile, Mr Varadkar’s appointment as Taoiseach has also resulted in a significant nine-point swing between Fine Gael and the main opposition party Fianna Fail. Fine Gael support has increased by five points to 30pc, while Micheal Martin’s Fianna Fail has dropped four points to 29pc since the last comparable poll taken in February.
While public support for the two main parties is almost neck-and-neck, Mr Martin will be concerned about the shift in support from Fianna Fail to Fine Gael since the change in Taoiseach. Mr Martin has continually ruled out bouncing Fine Gael into a snap vote but the party has increased its election preparations in recent weeks.
The Taoiseach’s personal satisfaction rating (49pc),
which has been polled for the first time today, is also far higher than his predecessor Enda Kenny (27pc). Satisfaction with Mr Varadkar is also four points higher than Mr Martin (44pc), which is the first time a Fine Gael leader ranked higher than Mr Martin in more than three years.
Fine Gael has also become less toxic to voters who don’t support the party under Mr Varadkar. Fianna Fail is still the least toxic party (18pc) but the number who say they would never vote for Fine Gael has dropped seven points to 25pc.
The Independent Alliance, is unchanged at 5pc. Sinn Fein is also unchanged at 20pc and the Labour Party is up to 7pc, while Independents and smaller parties are down one point to 13pc.
Meanwhile, more than one in four (26pc) people seem to have believed Mr Varadkar’s campaign message that he would shift Fine Gael to the centre of the political sphere, while almost another quarter (23pc) said the new Taoiseach would make his party more right wing. More than one in 10 (11pc) of those polled said Mr Varadkar would make Fine Gael more left-wing.
Squeezed middle voters, who suffered financially throughout the economic crash, are demanding tax cuts in return for backing the Government. Overall, the polls show more people favour spending (41pc) over tax cuts (33pc) in the Budget. But there is a dramatic shift towards tax cuts (47pc) rather than spending (31pc) among voters with more spending power. Similarly, those in the 35 to 44 age bracket would also prefer to see more money in their pockets in the next Budget than spending. Those living in Dublin are also far more in favour of tax cuts (48pc) over spending (42pc).
The lower socioeconom- ic groups which represent blue-collar workers and those receiving social welfare payments would prefer to see the Government focus budget resources on spending (45pc) rather than tax cuts (28pc).
Labour Party voters are the only group who support tax cuts over spending. Those voting for Fine Gael, Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein hold the opposing view.
The poll also reveals for the first time that the majority of people in the age groups of the coping classes are still suffering financially despite the improvement in the economy. A massive 57pc of people aged 18-34 years old say they are struggling financially, while 45pc of those aged 35-44 said the same. People aged 55 and older also recognise it is the younger generations who have suffered more since the crash.
The health service remains the most important issue to voters ahead of the next election, with 37pc of people saying policy on the area will influence how they vote. Management of the economy (15pc) is the second most influential factor to voters. It will be of concern to the Government that the number of people worried about mortgage repayments, house prices and the cost of rent has doubled (14pc) since before the general election last year.
The number of people who said homelessness and lack of social housing would influence their vote increased by two points to 11pc. However, there has been a significant drop in the number of people stating employment as a factor which will influence their voting intentions at the next general election.
The recent debate on water and waste collection charges led by hard-left political parties does not seem to have impacted on the public consciousness as just 1pc of people said it would affect their vote. Similarly, the outcome of the Citizens’ Assembly on abortion and the establishment of an Oireachtas committee to discuss its findings has had little impact. The poll found virtually no voters mentioned abortion as an issue ahead of the next election.
Support for the hard-left has dramatically dropped in this opinion poll. Solidarity-People Before Profit, which received lots of media coverage following the outcome of the Jobstown trial, has dropped two points and is now at just 1pc. Meanwhile, the Social Democrats registered less than half a percentage point of support in today’s poll. The Green Party remains unchanged at 2pc.