Brexit hardball: Ireland get ready
FROM the outset the Government has adopted a deliberate strategy to side with the European Union’s 27 countries in negotiations between the EU and UK on Brexit, adopting a view that to diverge from Europe would be the worst possible position to take. This was a wise course to take. Since his election, the Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar has hardened Ireland’s position in this regard, if anything, to apply increased public pressure on the UK to devise its own proposals to concur with the decision by referendum of its citizens to leave the EU.
Since that referendum, and the subsequent triggering of Article 50, negotiations between the EU and the UK has been tortuous to say the least, culminating to date in a European Council Summit last week which offered relatively encouraging signs that at least some progress can be made before the end of the year.
However, the EU’s formal announcement remains that “sufficient progress” on the withdrawal arrangements has not been achieved. Obstacles remain in relation to money, a deal on citizens’ rights, said to be “within touching distance”, and discussions on Northern Ireland. That said, the EU has decided to open its internal preparatory discussions on transition and trade, as encouragement to the UK Prime Minister Theresa May, who is in the most dreadful domestic political circumstances.
Ireland’s strategy all along has been to make our problems the EU’s problems. In effect, this is an implicit admission that should Ireland isolate itself we really will be on our own, that we are too small to matter to either the EU or the UK, although that would never be stated publicly. In these negotiations Ireland can not be seen to be playing both sides. However, it remains to be seen for how long that delicate position will be sustainable. Both the EU and the UK are still aiming to secure a comprehensive free trade agreement, with close cooperation on other issues such as defence and security. Walking away without a deal remains neither side’s first preference, and would be economically damaging to both, but particularly to Ireland. As the UK positions itself toward a less integrated relationship with the EU, a lot of the so-called ‘no-deal’ preparations are underway. Notwithstanding the improvement in mood music last week, it would be advisable for Ireland to also prepare for a ‘no deal’ outcome. Indeed, it would seem remarkably little preparation has been made in this regard, and that is remiss.
The time has perhaps come for the Taoiseach to make clear that should we end up with a hard Brexit, with the UK outside the customs union and single market, as it intends, and in the absence of proper trade arrangements, that Ireland will seek from the EU special treatment in the form of substantial financial aid for this country, and for a lengthy period, to transition and adapt to what will be a stark new landscape. While Ireland will remain a member of the EU, a relationship which, by and large, has been positive and productive for this country, there is also reason to recall that, in the recent past, Ireland has, indeed, seemed ‘too small’ to matter. The opportunity now exists for Ireland to make its voice heard. That opportunity should not be missed, whether privately at this stage or publicly in due course.