PALESTINE FACES A NEW REALITY
The harsh reality is that peace in the Middle East must be brokered locally, and not be directed by the US, writes Harry de Quetteville
WHEN, just a short decade ago, I was working as a foreign correspondent in Jerusalem, there were some universally accepted certainties about the IsraelPalestine conflict.
The first, and most important, was that ending it was the gateway to wider Middle East peace. If only a solution could be found, if only the lions would lie down with the lambs, a warring region would settle into democracy.
The only problem was that both sides thought they were the lambs.
The second certainty was that this could not happen without America.
The world’s superpower alone had the diplomatic might, economic heft, patience and tactical nous to force the two sides to sign on the dotted line.
A third certainty was also universal, but largely unspoken. This was that although the Arab world pretended to care deeply about the fate of the Palestinians, they didn’t give a fig. It was instead a useful stick with which to beat Israel and the West — but not much more than that. There was no equivalent expenditure of diplomatic might, economic heft, patience and nous.
These certainties have deep implications for the situation now, in which US President Donald Trump has recognised Jerusalem as capital of Israel. Because in the brief years since I was there, the whole region has changed profoundly.
Crucially, no one today thinks of peace between Israel and Palestine the golden key which will unlock the door to regional stability. Iraq, Syria and Isil have put paid to that — as have the revolutions and counter-revolutions of the Arab Spring.
It is clear that the fate of Arab peoples from Morocco to Baghdad has nothing to do with border checkpoints between Israel and the West Bank.
Indeed, it is patronising to imagine that is the case. Self-determination and local repression in each state are what really matter.
As a result, much of the heat has gone out of the conflict.
When I was there, only Washington had more journalists accredited than Jerusalem. The diplomatic corps was immense, to say nothing of the NGOs and aid agencies. It was as if the eyes of the world were on the place.
Now, Mid East bureau chiefs are just as likely to be based in Beirut or Cairo. And as for the Middle East “peace process”... well, what process?
Little has changed apart from the steady creep of Israeli settlements. It has become a frozen conflict.
The second certainty no longer applies either. Saudi Arabia and Iran are engaged in a sectarian squaring up — Sunni vs Shia — which may require, scarily enough, each country in the region to pick sides (let’s hope not).
That, combined with the revolution unleashed by Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia, makes a mockery of the idea that only the United States can impose peace. The Middle East has its own powers — and they will lead, probably in consultation with America.
The third certainty, by contrast, remains true, and poses problems for Palestinians looking for powerful regional backing in their anger at Donald Trump.
That backing was only ever pragmatic, yet now pragmatism about the rise of a nuclear Iran binds Israel and its Sunni neighbours closely together. There might be a bit of fig-leaf anger in Arab capitals, but security cooperation against Tehran is what matters most these days.
Against these changes, Donald Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem is, frankly, far less important than at first it seems. In fact, it is useful to pretend that Trump’s move is an outrage only if you accept that all the certainties of yore still pertain. They don’t. Instead, Trump’s statement reflects reality - the Palestinians have largely run out of options. And it is more helpful to the Palestinians to recognise this, and act on it, than to wish it weren’t so.
Understandably this is cause for huge Palestinian frustration. The television pictures of young men deploying catapults against the soldiers of one of the most sophisticated militaries in the world sum up the mismatch. Let us hope the violence extends no further.
But this new reality contains hope for Palestinians as well as pain. It reveals that the dream of Jerusalem as capital can come true, and could come true for them too (Trump did not preclude that). And it shows that their greatest, closest, most logical allies are now — astonishingly enough — the Israelis.
For just as time and technology has upended the status quo and made security partners of Saudi and Israel, so time and demographics will threaten Israel’s status as a Jewish state. The only democratic way around that is to ensure the Palestinians get their state too. That deal, brokered locally, in consultation with, though not directed by the US, must be the new hope. The old one was going nowhere.