Abortion is our Brexit: how TDs could block a referendum

Politicians must now decide how to vote based on personal views — and the political impact of their choice,

HILDEGARDE Naughton was walking up the stairs from the committee room area in the parliamentary building.

She had just signed-off on the Report of the Joint Committee on the Eighth Amendment of the Constitution.

The report’s central finding was that the Government should legalise unrestricted abortion up to 12 weeks into pregnancy. Naughton considers herself pro-life, but the expert information provided by the committee’s witnesses resulted in her view changing on some issues.

As she was coming up the stairs she walked by her Fine Gael colleague Senator Paul Coghlan, a Kerry politician with strident anti-abortion views.

“Slaughter, slaughter,” he said as Naughton walked by. She said nothing. She didn’t want to engage.

Coghlan insisted he was not speaking to Naughton but to another group of people, and suggested he has nothing but respect for his colleague from Galway.

However the episode will remind many in Fine Gael of the bitter in-fighting that plagued the party in the lead up to the vote on the Protection of Life During Pregnancy Bill in 2013.

The legislation enacted a 1992 Supreme Court ruling, only enacted 20 years later as the Government scrambled to act following the tragic death of Savita Halappanavar.

The mere mention of abortion generally results in TDs cowering in corners of Leinster House rocking back and forth.

But now they will have to put their heads above the parapet and take a position on an issue that affects thousands of Irish women every year.

Abortion is our Brexit. For the past three decades, abortion has been the political issue no Government wants to deal with but knows it should. Independent Minister Katherine Zappone forced former Taoiseach Enda Kenny to commit to a referendum on the Eighth Amendment in return for her support of his minority Government.

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has promised to hold that referendum next year, most likely in May or June.

Minister for Health Simon Harris expects to get approval to bring legislation to the Dail in the new year to legislate for unrestricted abortion up to 12 weeks into pregnancy.

When the Dail resumes in January a vote will be held on legislation to hold the referendum to remove the Eighth Amendment. A bill will be published in tandem with the referendum.

The public will then be asked to vote on removing the Amendment, in the knowledge that politicians will replace it with legislation allowing abortions for up to 12 weeks.

This weekend, deputies will weigh up their opinions based on personal views and the political impact of backing either side of the debate.

Varadkar said he will hold an extended parliamentary party meeting to discuss the party’s stance on abortion. He will be greeted with a variety of views.

Fianna Fail will have a similar internal struggle, and Sinn Fein is expected to discuss the party’s stance at a special ard fheis, where the main item on the agenda will be replacing Gerry Adams as party leader.

At present, Sinn Fein only supports abortion in cases of fatal foetal abnormalities.

However, it will be Government ministers who will sign off at Cabinet on the wording of the referendum and accompanying legislation. They are guided — but only guided — by the crossparty abortion committee’s findings. One minister this weekend conceded it would be difficult to diverge from the committee’s recommendations, as the Government itself asked the committee to compile the report.

Fine Gael ministers are far from aligned on their views on legislating to allow abortion up to 12 weeks. Minister for Social Protection Regina Doherty, Minister for Arts Josepha Madigan, Minister for Housing Eoghan Murphy, Minister for Justice Charlie Flanagan and Junior Education Minister Mary Mitchell O’Connor are in favour of abortion up to 12 weeks.

Tanaiste Simon Coveney, Minister for Rural Affairs Michael Ring and Junior Minister for Defence Paul Kehoe would find it difficult to vote in favour of holding a referendum on the same grounds. Minister for Health Simon Harris is understood to be “likely” to support the committee’s findings.

The Taoiseach is yet to state a definitive position but his spokesman said Mr Varadkar is in “listening mood”.

One Cabinet minister said he expected “casualties” among his colleagues once the realities of the abortion referendum sink in. The minister said he could see colleagues seeking to block the referendum.

“This abortion thing is going to unravel. It will fall apart in the Dail. This 12 weeks thing is dangerous,” the minister said.

“If we are whipped on this, there will be causalities.”

Among the junior ministerial ranks, opinion is equally divided. There is confusion about whether Fine Gael members will be whipped for votes on abortion.

There will be two important votes in the coming months: one on the wording of the referendum, and a second, should the referendum pass, to legislate for abortion up to 12 weeks.

At January’s Fine Gael parliamentary party meeting on abortion, it is expected that members will vote on whether they should by whipped on either or both votes.

It is likely members will seek a free vote, to avoid a scenario which would result in resignations. However, the Dail and Seanad numbers suggest there could be issues with passing the wording of the referendum and future legislation if members are not whipped.

Sinn Fein’s current position means it would not be able to support abortion up to 12 weeks. A strong contingent in Fianna Fail will not support it either. The majority of Independents will have difficulties with the proposal while leftwing TDs are expected to back the change.

Potentially, TDs opposed to a referendum on unrestricted abortion could prevent a vote happening but — much like with Brexit — most politicians want people to have their say.

If the referendum passes they will have to support the passing of new laws legislating the will of the people on abortion.

So the TDs who support the public’s right to vote, but are opposed to a significant change to the country’s abortions laws, will be left to legislate for an abortion regime they are against.

All this could again leave the Irish parliament with a similar dilemma to that faced by British politicians after the Brexit referendum.

The country may vote in favour of radical new laws on a divisive area of public policy, but the make up of the parliament could mean politicians will be able to delay, if not fully prevent, the implementation of legislation that underpins the referendum result.