Cut the British a little slack and they might change tack

It’s going to be a bumpy ride for everybody. So let’s leave space for another referendum in the UK, writes Willie Kealy

CHEER up. Brexit might never happen. There is at least as good a chance that we should be asking about “if ” Brexit happens as much as we are about “when” Brexit happens.

From the beginning, we have all been acutely aware that there is no good side to Brexit, that whatever negotiations take place between the EU and the UK, the most they can expect to achieve is a minimisation of damage to each of them, and that includes us. So all the politicians of Europe are currently working on a process that is going to be inherently bad for the continent. And yet they plough on.

The first phase of these negotiations just concluded (or is it?) gives an insight into what we can expect — bad faith, bad tempers, double talk and double dealing. And that is regarded as progress.

The British attempt to disavow what has just been agreed does not augur well for Phase Two of the talks or indeed any trade agreements the UK might seek to negotiate with the EU and other countries postBrexit. But all that is a long way off anyway, with a prospective transition period of many years in which the UK will be expected to continue to fulfil all the duties of an EU member without the voting rights.

And if the solution to the customs union and single market questions is to have the UK mirror these arrangements, then it has to be asked, what is the point of Brexit?

Increasingly, British politicians and, indeed, ordinary British people, are beginning to realise the referendum decision to leave the EU was a rash one. They are having buyers’ remorse. But they have their pride too and it will take time before the climate is right for anyone of any stature to suggest that the British people should be afforded the right to be asked the question again.

Of course, the political class are cowed by the bullies inside and outside Cabinet. And it will probably take some time before there will be a sea change in expressed opinion. That will have to include the political demise of Theresa May.

Right now, she has about 30 of her MPs who would like to see the back of her. If that number creeps up closer to 50, she is gone. It may take the next general election to finish her off, but who will replace her? One benefit of this gradual process of seeing sense is that the Conservative party has been given the opportunity to realise they should not dream of choosing the likes of Boris Johnson or Michael Gove.

Philip Hammond, the Chancellor, may be the answer but by the time his chance comes he may be too battle-scarred and politically beaten down. It is more likely to be someone yet to emerge as a front runner, or the answer may come from the other side of the House. It would be foolish to write off Jeremy Corbyn, but as with the Conservatives, we may be waiting for a new Labour leader to emerge.

Meanwhile, what can we do? Of course, the Irish Government has to continue to use all the influence and diplomatic skill it can muster to protect our interests in Phase Two of the talks and beyond, just in case Brexit does go ahead. But it should also adopt the military option of opening a second front.

In the principles of war, it is called concurrent activity. This would involve doing whatever is in our power to create the conditions that would allow a British government to put the question to the British people again. It will be more reluctant than our past governments have been in this type of situation, but even when we were repolled, there was some fig leaf of difference to the question we were asked.

Similarly, it would be helpful if the EU was to send some signal to the UK that it was willing to facilitate another referendum, by, for example, instituting some of the reforms David Cameron had sought, such as not allowing EU citizens of poorer countries to come to richer countries like the UK and immediately get the much higher social welfare payments, including child benefits for their families back in their home countries.

Eastern European members like Poland are opposed to this but then these champions of free movement are also the ones most opposed to allowing access to the EU for distressed migrants from outside the union.

We could also help create a more constructive atmosphere by discouraging those who choose this time to continue talking about a more integrated Europe, fuelling the paranoia in the UK and elsewhere, that there is a plot to create a United States of Europe.

This would be so much more useful than simply going along with the current EU policy which seems to consist largely of anger and a determination to make the UK suffer.

Now I must go for a lie-down. Swimming against the tide can be very tiring.

‘Increasingly, people are beginning to realise the decision to leave was a rash one’