Diesel decline looms as drivers seek clean break

Boss of Nissan Ireland says the switch to petrol is faster than predicted, writes Martin Brennan

IRISH motorists have fallen out of love with diesel. The switch to petrol is happening at a much faster rate than the motor industry or market analysts predicted, according to the head of one of the major motor importers.

James McCarthy, CEO of Nissan Ireland, said more urban drivers are now choosing petrol models, with UK diesel sales dipping by 30pc, in Germany by 11pc and France by 6pc.

In Dublin, diesel sales for last year, compared with presales figures for 2018, are down from 49pc to 24pc and in Cork from 68pc to 42pc.

The industry forecast is that in 2018, sales of diesel models will drop from 65pc to 50pc with petrol models rising from 31pc to 44pc. And the forecast for 2021 is that petrol cars will account for 55pc of sales with diesel models at 25pc and EV (electric vehicles) and others at 20pc.

“The diesel crown is erod- ing and the prediction is that petrol car sales are increasing faster than anticipated,” Mr McCarthy said. The trend has emerged from pre-sales figures for 181 registrations. Nissan is Ireland’s number one selling petrol car brand.

The number of new car buyers who have opted to buy the Nissan Qashqai petrol model has increased from 29pc in 2017 to 54pc for 2018. The numbers buying the diesel model have fallen from 71pc to 46pc, while the Qashqai mix outside of the cities has doubled from 21pc to 40pc.

“Sales of the Qashqai provide a very accurate barometer of what is happening in the market and our 181 pre-sales figures have swung in favour of petrol for the first time, indicating a return to the natural market position of a 70/30pc share.”

Mr McCarthy also hit out at the import of dirty diesel models from the UK. He said the Government’s open-door policy was contributing to harmful emission levels going up here and this could result in penalties of between €3bn to €4bn for breach of our agreement to reduce levels.

Ireland has become a dumping ground for dirty diesel and petrol cars and he calculated that 60,000 old diesel models and 15,000 petrol cars with higher NOx emissions than is permitted for new cars will have arrived here by the end of the year. The new limits under Euro 6 regulations reduce NOx emissions from diesel cars by almost 70pc compared with Euro 5 standards.

Diesel drivers are taking a harder look at their mileage and whether the cost benefits will be outweighed by the higher entry costs of owning a diesel car and the potential of lower residual values.

Also consumers are now considering the merits of buying diesel models at a time when governments are introducing bans on driving those cars into capital cities.

Mr McCarthy predicted a growing demand for EV sales because of savings on fuel, BIK benefits and the increased distance possible on a charge. “Cumulative EV sales will increase from 3,500 to 14,000 units by 2020 but the Government’s target of having 20,000 EVs on roads by that time can only be achieved with significant investment in the re-charging infrastructure.”

He said he wanted joinedup thinking to prevent gas guzzling cars parking at charging points and a big increase in those charging points.