Abortion vote at risk of delay until Pope visit
THERE is a growing view in Government that it may not be possible to hold an abortion referendum before next summer, the Sunday Independent can reveal.
While the intention still is for a referendum on the Eighth Amendment to the Constitution to be held in May or June, there are concerns that such a time frame is at “risk” and may not be feasible.
The possibility now exists that the referendum will not be held until October at the earliest, after the visit of Pope Francis to attend the World Meeting of Families in Ireland from August 21-26.
Supporters of repealing the Eighth Amendment, which recognises the equal right to life of the mother and unborn child, fear the papal visit will boost the pro-life campaign.
Yesterday a senior Government source confirmed, for the first time, that there was a growing realisation the referendum might have to be put back to October. “The thinking in Government is that May or June is still achievable, but if not, it’s really October,” the source said. “We don’t control the Dail or Seanad. There is no majority, and it is a free vote. There is lots of risk, but that’s politics,” the source added.
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has already said the referendum will probably take place in May or June, so any slippage in that time frame is bound to provoke anger among repeal supporters.
An October referendum would also coincide with the scheduled end of the confidence and supply agreement between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail which underpins the Government.
Separately, the Sunday Independent understands that Mr Varadkar is anxious to extend the confidence and supply deal for a further, fourth Budget and is said to intend to open discussions with Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin at some point in the new year.
However, if a general election is called shortly after the next Budget, there is provision to further postpone a delayed abortion referendum, possibly into 2019, or after a new government has been formed.
In that event, a ‘blame game’ would break out between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, which may lead to abortion becoming an election issue.
Yesterday, however, sources close to Mr Varadkar said he saw “no good reason for the Government to long-finger” the referendum.
They added that he was “determined to stick to a tight deadline” and a vote in May or June was still his intention. “The Taoiseach doesn’t want the system to relax on this issue,” one source said.
But last week it also emerged that there are divisions within the Cabinet on the recommendations of the Oireachtas Joint Committee
on the Eighth Amendment of the Constitution, primarily in relation to a recommendation that abortion services be available in the first 12 weeks of pregnancy.
The Government must decide on what course of action to follow early in the new year.
Health Minister Simon Harris will accordingly prepare Heads of a Bill, or a summary of the Government’s intended legislation to be introduced after the referendum. Based on that summary, the Government will ask the Oireachtas to approve a Referendum Bill to allow the issue to be put to the people. There is a window of four to six weeks if the May/June deadline is to be achieved.
Yesterday, a senior Government told the Sunday Independent there was a “risk” the referendum would not be held in May or June, according to the time frame initially outlined by the Taoiseach.
Mr Varadkar is said to be anxious to achieve Cabinet unanimity on the Government’s intended legislation.
However, in a clear sign of divisions within Cabinet, Mr Harris said last week that he could support abortion on request up to 12 weeks, but Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney indicated that he was not supportive of such a recommendation.
Should the Cabinet eventually agree a unanimous position, the issue will then go before both Houses of the Oireachtas.
A senior Government source said: “The Referendum Bill has to get through the Dail and Seanad. It could be delayed there, filibustered or even voted down.
“Then there are other issues to consider. You need three to four weeks for the campaign itself and also, the Referendum Commission needs 12 weeks or more, possibly 16 in this case.”
After the referendums on judges’ pay and Oireachtas inquiries in 2011, the Referendum Commission asked for “a period of at least three months to explain properly a referendum proposal”.