10 trends to shape motoring in 2018
looks at some of the key drivers that will influence the motoring landscape in Ireland this year
TREND #1 E-MOBILITY:
The future may be electric but 2018 is unlikely to be the breakthrough year. While many companies are committing to electric cars, we are unlikely to see much change in the choice of EVs until 2019 or later. For now, the short supply and unreliability of the current charging infrastructure will continue to limit the sale of electric cars in Ireland.
TREND #2 THE PROSPECT OF DRIVERLESS CARS:
In a recent report from Gartner, the consulting group, it will be five or possibly 10 years before Level 3 (conditional autonomy in some circumstances) driverless cars will achieve a 20pc market penetration, while Level 4 (full autonomy in some circumstances) is more than 10 years away. Many also believe that Level 4 and Level 5 (autonomy all times, conditions and places) will be separated by decades. One of the biggest stumbling blocks is that any level of autonomy will require near perfect conditions.
TREND #3 SUVS:
The surging demand for SUVs and crossovers in Europe and around the world shows no signs of slowing. In Europe, SUVs accounted for 26pc of all passenger car sales last year, up from 8pc in 2007. This year car makers expect to sell more than 4m SUVs in Europe and by 2020 expect to reach nearly 5.7m.
TREND #4 TOUGHER TESTS FOR NEW CARS:
Tougher tests are on the way for all new cars from September 1, 2018. As the new Worldwide Harmonised Light vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP) will be more accurate, it is expected that fuel-economy figures will decline and CO2 emissions will increase (by up to 20pc), which is likely to cause a lot of confusion among prospective car buyers as new cars will appear to be less efficient than older ones.
TREND #5 INSURANCE COSTS:
Insurance premiums remain the number one financial concern for Irish motorists. The cost of car insurance is estimated to have climbed by 70pc in the last three years, with many motorists priced off the road.
TREND #6 DIESEL IS NOT DEAD:
In 2017 diesels accounted for 65pc of the Irish new car market, with petrol taking 31pc and alternatively fuelled vehicles just 4pc. For 2018 it is likely diesel’s share will fall to just 50pc, with petrol jumping to 44pc of new car sales. Looking to the future the share of diesel is likely to revert back to pre-2008 levels and by 2021 the market is likely to breakdown as 55pc petrol, alternative fuels (electric and hybrid) accounting for 20pc and diesel making up 25pc.
TREND #7 IMPORTS AND BREXIT:
Used car imports reached just under 94,000 in 2017 as the decline of sterling and Brexit uncertainty impacted on car sales. Apart from the loss of revenue to the exchequer, a worrying aspect is the fact that 80pc of imports into the country are diesel and the fear is Ireland is now the dumping ground for the UK’s dirty diesel engines.
TREND #8 FUEL PRICES WILL RISE:
Higher oil prices is the likely scenario this year as the oil market continues to tighten due to OPEC and its allies, including Russia, keeping supply limits in place.
TREND #9 DIGITAL SHOWROOMS:
Car showrooms are slowly being transformed into digital marketplaces equipped with virtual-reality capabilities. Virtual showrooms house only a handful of actual cars; instead, all the key buying information can be accessed by interactive touchscreens linked to large screens. Will this signal the end of the traditional car-buying process?
TREND #10 PCP FINANCE:
PCP finance is expected to be a key driver of new car sales this year. However, such finance works best when used car values remain stable. Dealers and distributors will need to take a cautious approach to residual values as the market in the UK continues to influence used-car prices here while maintaining consumer demand for new cars.