Leo has the position but not the power as parties prepare for election battle

Fine Gael enjoys the trappings of office — but can point to few significant legislative achievements, writes Eoin O’Malley

‘If conventional wisdom is right, then nothing can stop Fine Gael’

‘IN office, but not in power’’ was Norman Lamont’s assessment of John Major’s government when he was sacked as Chancellor in 1993. Privately, the Irish Government might have the same assessment of its position.

Clearly, it enjoys the trappings of office — Fine Gael TDs and senators were tripping over each other to get close to Harry and Meghan — but it must wonder where the power went.

The end of the Dail term means tidying up before the summer recess. Bills are going through the Oireachtas apace.

But the more significant ones — there aren’t many of them — are from the opposition. The Bill that will force the Irish State to divest itself of investments in fossil fuels came from independent TD Thomas Pringle.

Even some government-sponsored bills don’t appear to have much support from Government. The Judicial Appointments Commission Bill isn’t one that Leo Varadkar would want to introduce.

It’s only in the form it is in because of Shane Ross’s insistence. Simon Harris tried to sell a technical Bill, introduced to correct a typo in the original Bill as a significant step to a more progressive and inclusive Ireland.

And then the Dail got in the way of the Government’s planned referendum to delete the section of the Constitution that recognises the woman’s support for life in the home. It’s plainly outdated, and the Government, high on the acclamation it got for the much tougher proposition to repeal the Eighth Amendment, sees this as an easy win. Another way to show voters that Fine Gael is progressive and modern.

But the Dail Business Committee refused the Government’s request that it waive the need for pre-legislative scrutiny.

Now that proposal will have to go to an Oireachtas committee where it is certain that the opposition will insist that the provision be replaced with a gender neutral one that recognises carers.

This won’t really mean anything, but it will delay that referendum, which was meant to be held on the same day as the presidential election.

Will it make Varadkar think of an election? Parties don’t start preparing for an election. They never stop preparing for an election. But the current refrain from Fianna Fail and Fine Gael is that ‘‘we don’t need an election’’.

Even Sinn Fein joined in. Mary Lou McDonald seems more interested in a profile-raising presidential election in the autumn rather than a general election. And the small parties and independents are nearly always scared of an election — the next vote could potentially mean oblivion for any of them.

But an election is always a possibility and each of the parties know this, so they keep looking over their shoulders in case the other crowd pounces.

When the Taoiseach eventually makes it to the beach, he might think the autumn is as good a time as any. Polls show that Fine Gael can expect about a third of voters to support it. A good day and that should be close to where Fine Gael was in 2011. It’s unlikely to better that in the next few years.

And the ‘‘fundamentals’’ are good. Recent growth forecasts show Ireland’s economy steaming ahead at 5.6pc growth. It’s the highest in the EU. Employment is up, and unemployment is back at pre-recession levels.

If the conventional wisdom is right, then nothing can stop Fine Gael. If the economy is strong, the incumbent government does well. The party might get close to 70 seats. That should put it in a position to form a government that commands a majority in the Dail. No more being pushed around by the opposition.

Varadkar will be reticent. He knows that the conventional wisdom is often wrong. Poll leads and well-tested strategies can vanish when a campaign comes into contact with voters. The ‘‘fundamentals’’ don’t matter if the campaign is focused elsewhere. Fine Gael learned this lesson in 2016.

The economy was seeing a strong recovery, and there was no plausible alternative government. Fine Gael planned its campaign around these two facts. But Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein successfully activated grievances about the nature of the recovery. People didn’t seem to mind about not having a stable government — stability had delivered them austerity. Enda Kenny was reduced to calling them whingers, losing votes in the process.

Varadkar also needs to have a reason to call an election. Theresa May’s folly in 2017 backfired spectacularly, mainly because she campaigned on the need for a ‘‘strong and stable’’ government, while appearing to provide anything but.

What the election gets called on will set the agenda for the campaign. Both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael will want to set that, and so each will prefer to pick the terms of the government’s fall. Fianna Fail has targeted a failure to deliver in health and housing, and so might wait for an inevitable ‘‘crisis’’ to call time.

Fine Gael may already have its slogans worked out. If they use the phrases the Sunday Independent revealed last month, ‘‘Let Leo Lead On’’ could be on a poster. It seems pretty corny, but it shows the party’s desire to play on Varadkar’s popularity. Since he became Taoiseach there has been a marked improvement in Fine Gael’s polling numbers.

The other approach Fine Gael can take is that of the prudent manager of the economy. Paschal Donohue is perfect in that role, and it plays to many people’s suspicions of Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein. But ‘‘Prudence over Promises’’ is hardly going to stir the loins of any but the most ardent Fine Gaeler.

There does not seem to be any sign of ‘‘Building a Republic of Opportunity’’, which was set to define Varadkar’s approach to policy. Fianna Fail will suggest it’s a Republic of Spin.

The problem is that the Government cannot point to any substantive changes it’s made to put flesh on the bones of its slogan. The reason it hasn’t? Varadkar is in office, not in power.