Let battle commence — and be prepared for surprises ahead

Though President Higgins seems far ahead of his election rivals, anything could happen, writes Jody Corcoran

THE big difference between this and the last Presidential election is that an outgoing President is seeking re-election. That fact alone could prove the essential difference in the end. Michael D Higgins is a popular and experienced outgoing President. It is difficult to see him being defeated.

The question is whether an outgoing President can be defeated, however. There is no precedent. It has not happened in this country before. But the short answer is yes, of course he or she can — even a President as relatively popular and experienced as is Michael D Higgins.

As a rule of thumb, there is no election in which it can be assumed at the outset that a presiding government, or President, will win — except in Russia, of course, or some other such oligarchy or dictatorship. Right now, the opinion polls tell us that President Higgins is far ahead, to an extent that makes his defeat seem unimaginable.

But the election is four weeks away and, well, such campaigns nearly always throw up a few surprises; and opinion polls have also failed to catch, in a timely manner, a turn in the public mood. In short, anything could happen.

It is instructive to look at the opinion polls before the last Presidential Election in 2011. The first, by Red C, on September 25 that year, showed David Norris out in front with 21pc of the first preference vote, followed by Michael D Higgins on 18pc, with Martin McGuinness (16pc) and Gay Mitchell and Mary Davis, both on 13pc, these three ahead of the eventual breakthrough candidate Sean Gallagher (11pc).

Within two weeks, an MRBI poll recorded the implosion of David Norris (11pc) and the rise of Sean Gallagher (20pc) with Michael D Higgins (23pc) also rising, although less spectacularly so.

Just over a week later, and Mary Davis (4pc) had fallen away, as had all other candidates to varying degrees, but the performance of Sean Gallagher (39pc) had strengthened to 13 points ahead of Michael D Higgins (26pc). The final polls of the campaign saw Gallagher (40pc) widen his lead over Higgins (25pc), before the gung-ho manner of the RTE Frontline debate changed everything.

When the ballot boxes were opened, Michael D Higgins had secured almost 40pc of the first preference vote to Gallagher’s 28.5pc — which represented a difference of about 200,000 first preference votes, widening to almost 400,000 votes after the fourth count. But as I say, opinion polls, while generally correct on trends, can sometimes fail to pick up, in a timely fashion, shifts in the public mood. And as of now, the mood or theme of this election has not been defined.

Take the last general election here, for example: five days before votes were cast, Red C had Fine Gael 12 points ahead of Fianna Fail; and with three days to go, the same polling firm had Fine Gael 10 points in front.

From those polls, you would be forgiven for thinking that that election was about ‘‘keeping the recovery going’’ as opposed to ‘‘fairness’’ and an ‘‘Ireland for all’’. When the votes were counted, Fine Gael actually won 25.42pc of the vote to Fianna Fail’s 24.35pc.

In its most recent political party poll, Red C has Fine Gael 11 points ahead, while other polling firms give the governing party a less but still significant lead averaging around eight points.

As somebody who monitors these things fairly closely, my instinct is that Fine Gael is really five to six points ahead, which is to say that the outcome of the next general election is still in play, with much depending on what will be the theme of that election. But that’s for another day…

The only precedent to the current election was the Presidential Election in 1966, when Fine Gael candidate Tom O’Higgins came to within 1pc of sitting President, the ailing and sight-failing Eamon de Valera, who remained holed up in the Aras, in what was a major shock at the time.

This election is different in that there are six candidates in the race, and the sitting President has come out to campaign. For Michael D Higgins to be defeated, the last man or woman standing would need to hoover up virtually all the available transfers to challenge him. At this time, the view seems to be that the last man and woman standing will be Sean Gallagher and Liadh Ni Riada, but as the last Presidential election showed, that prediction could be entirely upended once the campaign is up and running. An interesting aside is that all three — Higgins, Gallagher and Ni Riada — are making outward attempts to downplay their political backgrounds: a Labour stalwart, Higgins has let it be known that he is running as an Independent; Gallagher is widely seen as a Fianna Fail candidate in all but name and Ni Riada’s election posters do not carry the Sinn Fein logo. To that could be added a widely held perception that Gavin Duffy would be most comfortable in Fine Gael.

There are valid — in the case of Michael D Higgins as the current President — but also questionable reasons for candidates to distance themselves from their political base while at the same time expecting to win that support. Similarly, Joan Freeman may be inclined (or not) to downplay her pro-life credentials while playing up her role as the founder of one of the country’s most admired charities.

It is all about winning as many hearts and alienating as few minds as possible to stay in the race for as long as possible. Whether Michael D Higgins is the Marmite candidate — love him or hate him — as many would have you believe… well, I have my doubts. I expect he will also be transfer-friendly, as indeed he turned out to be last time.

It is also said that this election will be about defining a ‘‘new Ireland’’, and electing a President to represent all of that, as though an aging Michael D Higgins could not be such as President.

But this election could turn out to be equally, if not more, about three hugely significant centenary commemorations coming up in the next three to four years: the War of Independence, the Government of Ireland Act and the Civil War and Partition, commemorations which might better suit the skills of an experienced professional politician.

In any event, let the battle commence — and while it would be unwise to bet on anything other than victory for Michael D Higgins, do not say you were not warned if there is a turn-up for the history books.