Martin well fixed to fight election if he can find right issues to campaign on

Some FF party members remain unhappy about how the extension to confidence and supply was handled, writes Kevin Doyle

‘McGrath is seen as the favourite to succeed him...’

IN his welcome note to Fianna Fail delegates at this weekend’s Ard Fheis, Micheal Martin reminds them that we are “in uncertain times”.

Naturally, he is talking about Brexit but the cliched line could apply to both the party and his leadership. No other Fianna Fail leader has spent so long in continuous opposition.

Martin has one last shot at becoming Taoiseach in a general election that is likely to happen later this year. Polling day will definitely be in 2019 if his grassroots members have any say.

They are fed up with confidence and supply. Reports back from the local election doorsteps suggest that many candidates find themselves justifying why they tolerate the mistakes of Fine Gael in government.

“It’s like defending the indefensible. We know the logic of extending confidence and supply but at best you get two or three minutes on a doorstep — and when you’re explaining, you’re losing,” one local election candidate told the Sunday Independent.

But Micheal Martin has been around the block. A TD since 1989, he has served in the departments of health, enterprise and foreign affairs. Arguably these are the three most important offices at this time of national trepidation.

The 58-year-old has led Fianna Fail since 2011 when there were questions about its very survival. The Soldiers of Destiny’s fall from grace was unprecedented.

However, Martin was one of very few to stand firm and continue the fight.

The recovery has been paradoxical. Fianna Fail heads into May’s elections as the largest party in local government but have zero representation in Europe.

While Brian Crowley was elected on the FF ticket, it’s no secret that he abandoned its ALDE group in the European Parliament, and, in any event, didn’t show for votes due to illness.

Writing in the brochure sent to delegates attending the Ard Fheis, General Secretary Sean Dorgan said: “Fianna Fail is determined to approach these elections with great care and preparedness and we will field strong tickets across the three Euro constituencies. Our objective is to significantly improve the party’s footprint in Europe.”

There are at least three seats to be won for Fianna Fail if it manages it right. That would be a lovely result for Martin, except there’s always a ‘but’.

In Ireland South, it appears likely that former Minister of State and current Jobs Spokesman Billy Kelleher will be on the ticket.

Kelleher approached the party leader after Crowley announced his retirement and expressed an interest in Brussels but was shot down.

However, given the way Fianna Fail works these days, that hasn’t stopped the Cork North Central TD from pursing the European nomination.

Depending on who you talk to, Kelleher is either hugely enthusiastic about going to Europe at a time when it’s top of the news agenda or pessimistic about getting a decent ministry in the next government. Cork is not short of Fianna Fail TDs with expectations for office.

By moving to Brussels, Kelleher would be ruling himself out of any leadership bid in the event that the party isn’t back in power after a general election.

Part of Martin’s strength is that there are no overt contenders to the throne. When Enda Kenny led Fine Gael in the 2016 election, we all knew that Leo Varadkar, Simon Coveney, Richard Bruton, Frances Fitzgerald, Paschal Donohoe and even Simon Harris were clipping at his heels.

Martin doesn’t have a wave of talent preparing to undermine his position in order to further their own.

Michael McGrath is seen as the favourite to succeed him but constituency rules mean he won’t make a move. Others in the reckoning include Dara Calleary, Timmy Dooley, Jim O’Callaghan and Barry Cowen, while newcomer Lisa Chambers sometimes gets an honourable mention. None will heave in the foreseeable future.

It’s hard to picture Martin’s cabinet, mainly because we haven’t seen it. Much like the Aras election, we knew what Michael D Higgins looked like as president but struggled to see any of the challengers in that context.

Of course there are some in the party who are ready to knife Martin at a moment’s notice — but he gives TDs like John McGuinness no notice anymore. As far as the leader is concerned, the party is taking the moral high ground by continuing with confidence and supply during Brexit. The bet is that at a time when international politics has gone rogue, sensible Irish voters will repay the sensible politics. He told delegates: “There has been enough chaos in London and we have already seen the damage done to Ireland by Sinn Fein and the DUP’s refusal to have working democratic institutions in Northern Ireland. I was determined not to allow this to happen in Dublin.”

It’s a solid argument that has been almost universally endorsed by the media, who Martin is often sceptical about.

But some in the party, particularly the grassroots, remain unhappy about how the extension to confidence and supply was handled. A ‘review group’ of Calleary, McGrath, Chambers and Agriculture Spokesperson Charlie McConalogue was set up — but ultimately the decision was made by Martin and his close advisers who are often referred to disparagingly by TDs as the “unelected crowd”. They include Dorgan, who made sure to pay tribute this weekend to staff at Party HQ in Mount Street and at Leinster House for continuing “to serve the party selflessly”.

They include Martin’s chef de cabinet Deirdre Gillane and press adviser Pat McParland.

Gillane, a former trade unionist, is the brains of the operation and not to be underestimated as Varadkar’s inner circle have found since he became Taoiseach.

There is some resentment at the gap in the food chain between Martin and his advisers at the top and the parliamentary party on the next rung down.

The recent partnership with the SDLP is one obvious example. While Colum Eastwood gave his membership a vote on the curious deal, it was presented to Fianna Failers as a fait accompli.

A promised white paper from The Republican Party on a reunified Ireland has never developed either — despite being announced in March 2017.

On the flipside, Martin’s decision to blindside his TDs by backing abortion up to 12 weeks ahead of last year’s referendum is now seen as a crucial one.

Given the result, a large section of Fianna Fail risked being seen as totally out of touch with the electorate — but not Martin who prides himself on weekly canvasses in different constituencies.

However, he can’t get into government on his own. Several of his front- bench spokespeople have failed to produce detailed policy platforms. They have put forward individual pieces of legislation or private members’ bills but not a fully teased plan for childcare, agriculture or social welfare reform.

Whatever about policy, the party is well-fixed financially to fight an election. Ironically they are in a better position than during the boom when money seemed no object.

Total fundraising and membership income in 2017 totalled €1,260,840, a 2pc increase on the prior year total.

This has delivered an overall surplus of €1,396,261 and left the party in a position to use its surplus to clear debt, which historically stood at nearly €4m.

Fundamentally Martin is well fixed heading towards an election if he can find the right issues to campaign on. But there are also issues outside of his control, not least Brexit. Timing will be everything.