Leo and Boris both blinked — now a deal can be done
Varadkar and Johnson have chosen to compromise — and seem to have avoided the worst of all possible outcomes, writes Jody Corcoran
JUST when it looked like he was going all in on the gamble of his political life, Leo Varadkar has blinked — thankfully. Boris Johnson has blinked too. They had a blink-in between them in Liverpool last week and sanity has prevailed. A deal to allow the UK leave the European Union in an orderly fashion is almost certain to be made — a victory for Boris; and there will be no border return on the island of Ireland — a win for Leo.
We do not downplay Leo’s success. The return of a border was in nobody’s interest. When the excitement passes, though, we will come to realise that the deal struck will still not be good for Ireland, or the UK. The outcome may not be no-deal, but will be a hard Brexit. And that will still hurt.
But it could have been a lot worse. Varadkar and Johnson have chosen to compromise, at the last moment, and seem to have avoided the worst of all possible outcomes. And we will take that.
There are a few twists and turns to play out yet, not least to get the putative deal out the other end of the so-called tunnel in Brussels. Brussels will make a big deal out of that, but it will happen; and then, through the House of Commons — no easy task; followed by a general election in the UK — perhaps held later than most expect. The outcome of the election also has the potential to throw the new deal up in the air, although that seems more remote. There is a sense that it will all fall into place now.
And then there will be winners and losers to determine, of course. We can make a start on that now: Boris Johnson — winner; Dominic Cummings — winner; Leo Varadkar — winner; his adviser Brian Murphy — winner; Micheal Martin — winner; the DUP — winner (although it may not realise it yet) and the European Union — the house always wins.
As for the other players: Nigel Farage — loser; the Liberal Democrats — loser (of sorts); Scottish Nationals — winner (of sorts); Irish republicanism — loser (there will be no Brexit border poll); One Nation Tories — honourable in defeat, but will return; Labour in the UK — loser, and Jeremy Corbyn, dead-man walking.
What brought Varadkar to compromise is easy enough to work out. In a word: risk. In two: Dominic Cummings. In reality, a bird in the hand was worth two in the bush. He assessed the odds and realised the risk of no-deal was too great. He was right about that, as was argued here last weekend.
Those most disappointed will be Remainers in the UK: the Lib Dems, SNP, One Nation Conservatives and the centrist wing of Labour. They all wanted Varadkar to hold out for another extension and referendum or election, to reverse Brexit.
And boy, was Varadkar sorely tempted? That’s what he really wanted in his heart. It would have been a win-win for Ireland, and for Project Leo too.
So tempted that, with the Boris Johnson and DUP compromise on the table the week before last, Varadkar teased it out in Sweden anyway — only to provoke the astonishing Dominic Cummings to go for broke.
More than anything else, Cummings’s widely criticised leak to the Spectator magazine early last week rattled Dublin and forced a rethink in tactics in the Taoiseach’s Department, if not the more bullish Department of Foreign Affairs.
Varadkar had gone back on his word, the Cummings leak said — a charge unconvincingly denied in Dublin, but evidently containing a measure of truth considering subsequent events in Liverpool; was pulling the strings of Michel Barnier, and was “gambling” on a second referendum.
And as some of us have come to realise, Project Leo does not like such blame or criticism.
So, in terms of political tactics, this has also been a victory for Boris Johnson. Let us not forget that the unfortunate Theresa May made a close version offer of the same new deal, but was dismissed during Ireland and the EU’s more strutting phase.
In truth, the opportunity to overturn the referendum had long since passed. Johnson was right about one thing: the mood in the UK is to ‘get Brexit done’. To overturn now, or in recent times, would have riven that country entirely.
There was a moment, though, but it was squandered by Labour, the more Jeremy Corbyn obfuscated and his party dithered.
Clearly, Varadkar sensed that moment had passed, too, and went for a safer bet, a deal with Boris. Because had the Tories won the election — as seems likely — then no-deal was virtually certain. And that was far too big a risk to take, even for an outrageous gambler like Leo.
That said, whenever the UK election does take place, Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP will put up a show, and threaten for a while to reverse the process. A little part of Leo still hopes that will happen — maybe a big part. But if the opposition in the UK couldn’t get its act together when the Tories were on the ropes, it will hardly do so now, after the horse has bolted.
There is still a potential obstacle in front of the Conservatives — Nigel Farage and the Brexit Party. Already Farage is making noises, like a man who senses his moment is passing. But when the deal is out at the other end of the tunnel, Farage’s moment will be over, too.
Indeed, Cummings may be happy for Farage to still contest the election, at a support level reduced to 5pc. At that, he would do more damage to Labour than to the Tories, and that way lays a majority for the Conservatives.
What’s more relevant, for us, is how it is all going to play out here, politically. There is talk now of an election in November, but that is not going to happen either. Brexit will be too febrile, too unsettled. Sinn Fein is bound to play act over the restoration of Stormont, for example. But there are other reasons too, more mundane.
Fine Gael’s poll rating is down, the Government is unpopular and Fine Gael is still not ready on the ground. Varadkar needs time to turn it around, if around it can be turned.
He has also given a couple of hostages to fortune: he has said he wants the election in May, when Brexit is settled; he is downplaying Fine Gael’s by-election chances; and has said Fine Gael would support a minority Fianna Fail government. After nine years of Fine Gael, voters may just go for that.
But Leo will not give up. He is a good fighter and has had a notable success, if not outright victory on Brexit. Now he will milk it for everything it’s worth.
To do that, he will present himself as the saviour of Ireland, the great Statesman, up there with Michael Collins (who did not have the EU in his corner), and — who knows — history may show him to be, when the State Papers are published in 30 years. So, expect the restoration of Stormont to signal the relaunch of Project Leo, wrapped in green.
Then again, maybe not… Maybe that moment has passed, too. Maybe everybody is just relieved it is coming to an end and that we have survived, for now, to tell the tale. Brexit, that is.
‘There is still a potential obstacle in front of the Conservatives’