With economic sands set to shift, Varadkar could benefit from an early trip to the polls

Public sentiment could easily change when the impact of Brexit bites next year, and the Taoiseach may prefer to do battle while he is in control, writes Liam Weeks

WILL the Taoiseach call an election? If this question was asked a fortnight ago, we might have been tempted to look out the nearest window to check for flying pigs.

Leo Varadkar himself said last month that his preference was for a May 2020 election. With Micheal Martin committed to supporting Fine Gael in office for the duration of the Brexit process, why would the Taoiseach be tempted to take a trip to the Aras?

It would have been difficult to see what Varadkar could gain from an early election. He already holds the most important political office in the land, so his career could only go in one direction. If he won a hypothetical election, he would simply hold on to what he already had. But by calling one, he would risk losing this position. And what sane political leader would gamble with the keys to power? If you have them already, why risk all by throwing them into the pot?

The political climate seems to have changed, however, in the past two weeks. The Taoiseach has been involved in negotiations with Boris Johnson and the EU that have given him a statesman-like manner, boosting his popularity, with an Irish Times poll last week finding the Taoiseach’s approval ratings up 15 points, to 51pc, and the Government’s ratings likewise up 11 points, to 42pc.

Those who follow polls assiduously pointed out that such ratings have simply returned to a level they were at 12 months ago, and remain below where they were in Mr Varadkar’s first year in the job.

But the key for any political party and its leader is momentum, and the Taoiseach should be more concerned with the direction his ratings are going, rather than their specific levels.

We are told a no-deal Brexit would be bad for Ireland, and if the UK exited in this manner on October 31, the negative impact on our economy could only hurt the Government, even if it was not culpable. No Taoiseach wants to call an election in an economy of gloom, so now may be the best time for Varadkar to do so, before matters get a whole lot worse.

The other relatively benign event for the Taoiseach and the Government over the past few weeks has been the manner in which the Budget was greeted. It was almost a non-event. Yes, there were the inevitable criticisms from some quarters of the Opposition benches, but the most striking feature of the reaction of Fianna Fail and the media was its virtual absence. In budgets gone by, the Minister for Finance would have been heckled by his opponents, almost regardless of the merits, or otherwise, of the spending proposals.

But not this time. The Taoiseach and Paschal Donohoe must have breathed a sigh of relief to have escaped the Liveline-esque bashing that has haunted previous budgets. This is another factor that might tempt Varadkar to have an early election. Public sentiment over the management of the State’s coffers could easily change over the next few months once the Finance Bill goes through the Oireachtas, and the ramifications of an unknown Brexit are being realised.

In addition, the key issues of health and housing are not likely to improve over the next few months. If anything, voters will be more likely to gripe about them in the spring after they’ve suffered from a winter. People like a good moan post-Christmas, what with empty pockets and a seasonal hangover. An election in the spring would be a perfect opportunity for voters to unleash their wrath, so it might be more prudent to call a vote now to pre-empt such inevitable sentiment.

Something else the Taoiseach has to contemplate is the growing importance of the environmental issue. It has resulted in support for the Green Party doubling since May, from 4pc to 8pc. The surge is even greater in Dublin. Seven months ago, the Greens had onethird the support of Sinn Fein in the capital, and half that of Labour. They have now overtaken both parties.

While Fine Gael has lost little support in Dublin, where it remains strong, Varadkar should know that he needs to be mindful of the growing environmental streak in the Irish electorate. All parties could suffer from its presence, especially one that has been in power for almost nine years.

The first opportunity to see if the green tide at the local and European elections was a flash in the pan will be in next month’s by-elections. Governments rarely win them, so the Taoiseach needs to brace himself for four potential defeats, and the negative consequences it will have for his party.

What if the Greens win two or three of these contests? It will give them the momentum that Varadkar craves for himself and Fine Gael.

This is another reason why the Taoiseach might be tempted to go to the electorate early. Support for the Greens seems to be going in just one direction at the moment, but a potential obstacle they face is that they lack the necessary organisation to turn this support into votes and seats.

The Greens need time to build such a base, so a premature election might nip their growth in the bud. A precedent for such a strategy lies in the experience of Clann na Poblachta in the 1940s.

A new radical socialist party, led by the former IRA chief-of-staff, Sean MacBride, the Clann threatened to break the stranglehold Fianna Fail had on Irish politics. It won two of three by-elections in late 1947, with the government’s vote collapsing in all three contests. Such was Eamon de Valera’s fear of this new party that he engaged in a form of gerrymandering, increasing by 50pc the number of three-seat constituencies, and abolishing the seven-seaters that favour smaller parties.

There is now an independent boundary commission to prevent Varadkar from repeating this trick, but one tactic he could copy was de Valera’s calling a surprise election shortly before the Christmas of 1947.

Clann na Poblachta had hoped to challenge Fianna Fail, and it ran 93 candidates. But the election came too early for the party, and it won just 10 of 147 seats.

By calling an election now, the Taoiseach will be in control of events. Waiting until next summer means he will be dependent on unforeseen and unpredictable events. And what if one such issue develops into a crisis that leads to Fianna Fail or the independents pulling the plug? No government would want an election in such circumstances.

All that being said, the Taoiseach is more aware than anyone that Fine Gael’s support at 29pc is not at a level that guarantees him re-election. And de Valera still lost the 1948 election, in spite of his calling it early. The level of desire amongst the opposition then to “get Dev out” motivated six parties and independents to come together and form Ireland’s first-ever coalition government.

Varadkar’s recent jibes at both Labour and the Greens, and the lack of obvious allies for Fine Gael, might have a similar effect after the next election, by pushing the opposition parties together to get him out of office.

Whatever the Taoiseach decides to do, it is a critical moment in his political career. If Varadkar does not manage matters carefully, he risks becoming another Fine Gael leader unable to win an election. Seven of the previous 10 followed this path. He does not want to be the eighth.

‘An election in the spring would be an opportunity for voters to unleash wrath’