AIMING FOR THE STARS
Adrian Weckler on Disney’s bid to reshape TV,
IT is January 2027. You’re home from work and switch on the telly. The Android TV set-top box offers up a straight choice of channel apps: Netflix, Disney, Premier League Channel and RTÉ. You remember the days when you had 220 different channels, 210 of which you never watched.
Now, it’s all much simpler. Universal broadband means you can watch ultrahigh definition TV on any screen. You can connect it through any €100 4K media box.
Because ever since the Premier League and Disney switched to their own TV companies and cut off distribution to traditional television firms, there isn’t much point in aggregated TV service providers.
You now pay for each channel or sport directly to its own TV company, just like Netflix. The only expensive thing you have is the Premier League Channel (€45 per month).
The others (Netflix at €15 per month, Disney and the BBC at €10 per month each) are reasonably affordable. RTÉ is still free.
You drift in and out of other monthly TV channel subscriptions, like Amazon, Apple TV Plus and HBO, depending on whether you want to watch a specific series.
But as you crack open a can of carbonneutral coal, you realise that you now watch what you really want, not what’s pushed at you in mega-bundles.
Sound far-fetched? Maybe not. Last week’s announcement that Disney Plus is launching early in Ireland will again put a spotlight on how we watch TV.
Is it to remain through a wide-ranging gateway box provided by Sky or Virgin? Or is it a cleaner, trimmed down arrangement of concentrated content on platforms like Apple’s TV set-top box? Or will it be a combination of the two?
This ‘cord-cutting’ dilemma isn’t new. In the US, it has been gathering pace, with well over 20 million households now relying only on TV apps and streaming services. Almost all industry predictions see this reaching 25pc of the market in the next two years.
The UK is not far behind, with an annual decline of some 400,000 payTV households, according to Strategy Analytics.
Ireland’s pay-TV market has also been hit, with major players such as Virgin Media having lost half their subscribers in recent years. (Sky has lost less, while Eir’s last figures show that it is static.)
This doesn’t mean people are watching less television. It simply means fewer eyeballs on traditional ad-supported stations and suppliers, with a switch to ondemand content.
The actual movies and TV series on Disney Plus aren’t that different to what it currently offers with its Disney Life online channel (and app), for the same price.
Yes, there are some new series that will come with the reinvented channel, such as The Mandalorian (and its viral star, Baby Yoda).
But what really counts is the growing exclusivity. Disney has indicated that it will begin withdrawing many of its movies and TV series from other television platforms, including Netflix and Sky.
That means Star Wars and Marvel movies, as well as Frozen, The Lion King and Finding Nemo.
Anyone with kids under the age of 12 will instantly realise the impact this will have.
A substantial number of science-fiction and fantasy-loving adults will similarly take note.
So even though industry estimates put the number of Irish Disney Life subscribers at under 10,000, it’s very likely to increase sharply as the new order becomes apparent to Netflix and Sky Movies subscribers.
None of the companies will publicly comment on how rapidly the Disney, Marvel or Star Wars content will thin out on rival platforms.
And there is a lot that is tipped to remain on current TV channels, like The Simpsons (owned by Fox, which is owned by Disney).
Furthermore, the movie rights business is complex and multi-faceted, with postcinema release windows likely to see Sky and Netflix still get something from Disney and its subsidiaries.
But one thing seems likely. If Disney can prove that there is a profitable, stand-alone model for one tranche of entertainment, it may cause a rethink among other niche content providers.
In Ireland and the UK, the elephant in the room is Premier League football.
No other single piece of content drives premium subscriptions like 90-minute spectacles involving Liverpool, Manchester United and Arsenal.
Rugby doesn’t come close. Neither does GAA (despite, or maybe because of, being the best-attended sport in Ireland by some distance).
Indeed, most other sports are irrelevant in subscription terms; football dominates utterly. It’s why the Premier League gets €1.8bn per year for TV rights from UK broadcasters and more than €3bn per year when rest-of-world TV rights are factored in.
So what would happen if the Premier League decided to set up its own TV network and license it directly through an ultra-high definition app?
Looking at the way trends are moving, the current TV subscription companies would probably accept it as a stand-alone app, integrated on their platform. This is certainly something that the Premier League and Uefa have analysed before, along with Sky, BT and every other major network that shows the top sports events.
The networks have always come out on top before, because of their superior distribution; they’re already in almost every home.
But that physical advantage has changed radically in the past five years. High-speed broadband is now available to the bulk of households across Ireland, the UK and Europe.
Disney Plus may be the penultimate step before a redrawing of the television industry.