Poll: Election is a three-way tie
■ Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and Sinn Fein neck and neck at 22pc ■ Greens 8pc, Labour Party 5pc, Social Democrats 3pc, Independents 11pc ■ Exit poll result signals struggle to form a government
THE outcome of the General Election is on a knife edge as the three main political parties look to be in a dead heat, according to an exit poll.
After weeks of speculation about the outcome, Fine Gael, Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail were tied, meaning the make-up of the next Dail is far from clear as counting begins.
The country is facing the prospect of a hung Dail once the votes are counted. Lengthy government formation talks are likely to follow.
Fine Gael (22.4pc) Sinn Fein (22.3pc) and Fianna Fail (22.3pc) are level in terms of public support according to the poll.
The results indicate that Taoiseach Leo Varadkar may have managed to claw back support for Fine Gael in the dying days of the campaign.
Meanwhile, Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald has led her party to its best ever election result. However, Ms McDonald is running far fewer candidates that her rivals and is not expected to gain as many seats as they will.
Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin will be disappointed that his party is polling in third place. Despite this, the party could still turn out to have the largest number of seats in the next Dail.
The Ipsos MRBI poll for RTE, The Irish Times, TG4 and UCD shows the Green Party on 8pc, Labour on 5pc, the Social Democrats on 3pc, Solidarity People Before Profit on 3pc and Independents on 11pc.
More than 5,000 people were surveyed at 250 polling stations around the country with a margin of error of 1.3pc.
Ireland turned out early and in steady numbers to vote in the first Saturday general election in more than 100 years yesterday.
Factors such as the televised Ireland vs Wales rugby international in Dublin and the threat of a severe storm throughout the country later in the day may also have motivated people to vote early.
There were also indications that younger people showed up to vote in higher than typical or expected numbers, a development which has particularly encouraged Sinn Fein and others on the left.
In the exit poll Sinn Fein achieves a massive 31.8pc among 18- to 24-year-olds compared with Fine Gael’s 15.5pc. The Greens and Fianna Fail were both on 15pc in this age bracket. Voters over the age of 65 primarily stuck with the two main parties.
Fianna Fail will be particularly disappointed with the party’s performance in the capital. Mr Martin knew that if he was to find an easy path to power, he would have to make considerable gains in Dublin.
However, the party appears to have only achieved 14pc, trailing Fine Gael on 21.1pc and Sinn Fein on 22.3pc.
Mr Martin’s candidates performed better in the rest of Leinster where they polled 26pc, four points ahead of Mr Varadkar’s party. Sinn Fein were second in the 11 counties outside of Dublin on 24pc.
Fianna Fail and Fine Gael are neck and neck in Munster on 26pc and 25pc respectively. Sinn Fein are back on 18pc.
In Connacht-Ulster, Fine Gael edged in front marginally on 23pc, just a single point ahead of Fianna Fail. Sinn Fein are on 20pc.
The Green Party will be somewhat disappointed that despite much talk about climate action being a key factor in this election they have failed to make a major breakthrough outside of Dublin.
Fine Gael were quick to react to the poll with party chairman Martin Heydon saying: “We are in the hunt in every constituency for seats and are determined to come out of this election as the largest party.”
THE first Saturday election for more than 100 years saw a change in voting behaviour — but the outcome is incredibly unclear.
Many polling stations recorded strong early turnouts and turnout is expected to be above 60pc.
The imminent arrival of Storm Ciara, Ireland’s Six Nations clash with Wales in Dublin and a plethora of GAA fixtures around the country were seen as a significant factor in the busy morning activity.
Traditionally, when elections have taken place on Thursdays and Fridays, polling stations saw activity after 6pm. The switch to a weekend polling day saw people make use of the morning opening to prevent voting clashing with other weekend plans.
Voting has not taken place on a Saturday since 1918.
But the country is now facing the prospect of a hung Dail once the votes are counted. Lengthy government formation talks are likely to follow.
Fine Gael (22.4pc) Sinn Fein (22.3pc) and Fianna Fail (22.3pc) are level in terms of public support, according to the exit poll conducted by Ipsos MRBI for RTE, TG4 the Irish Times and UCD.
The results indicate that Taoiseach Leo Varadkar may have managed to claw back support for Fine Gael in the dying days of the campaign.
Fianna Fail will be particularly disappointed with the party’s performance in the capital. Mr Martin knew that if he was to find an easy path to power, he would have to make considerable gains in Dublin. However, they appear to have only achieved 14pc, trailing Fine Gael on 21.1pc and Sinn Fein on 22.3pc.
Mr Martin’s candidates did perform better in the rest of Leinster where they polled 26pc, four points ahead of Mr Varadkar’s party. Sinn Fein were second in the 11 counties outside of Dublin on 24pc.
Fianna Fail and Fine Gael are neck and neck in Munster on 26pc and 25pc respectively. Sinn Fein are back on 18pc.
In Connacht-Ulster, Fine Gael edged in front marginally on 23pc, just a single point ahead of Fianna Fail. Sinn Fein are on 20pc.
The Green Party will be somewhat disappointed that despite much talk about climate action being a key factor in this election they have failed to make a major breakthrough outside of Dublin.
The party is on 12.9pc in the capital which means Eamon Ryan can expect to grow his Dail numbers — but it will be difficult to reach the 10 TDs many had predicted.
The Labour Party achieved 8.1pc in the capital but their overall projected share of 4.6pc means they have lost a third of their 2011 vote. Holding onto seven TDs looks like a long shot.
Fine Gael, whose campaign was marred by difficulties, were quick to react to the poll with party chairman Martin Heydon saying: “We are in the hunt in every constituency for seats and are determined to come out of this election as the largest party
“This is a very encouraging exit poll, but it is just that.
While many were keen to write us off in this election, this demonstrates that Fine Gael retains the trust and support of a large swathe of the Irish public.”
President Michael D Higgins and the leaders of the major political parties were among the early voters.
Mr Higgins was accompanied by his wife Sabina as they cast their ballots at St Mary’s Hospital in Phoenix Park, a short distance from Aras an Uachtarain.
Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin voted with his wife, daughter and two sons early at St Anthony’s Boys National School in Ballinlough, Cork.
Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader Leo Varadkar is facing a difficult battle to hang on to power — recent polls put his party behind Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein.
He brought a box of Roses for polling centre staff at Scoil Thomais, near his home in Castleknock, Co Dublin.
Before casting his ballot, he told the Sunday Independent how he would spend the day of reckoning. He attended Ireland’s clash with Wales with his partner Matt Barrett before finding a way of killing time waiting for last night’s exit poll results.
“Afterwards I’ll visit some polling stations in my constituency to thank all the staff. They do a really long day. I reckon I’ ll go home and watch the exit poll on the TV at 10pm. That’s if I don’t get the heads-up in advance.”
Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald was with local councillor Seamas McGrattan as she cast her vote at St Joseph’s School in Dublin. She said it was an important day.
“Today is the day that people are in charge and every single vote counts,” she said.
“People have told us throughout this campaign that they want change, that they want a change in our presentation and they want a change in government, so I am saying to people please come out today and vote for a change.”
Recent opinion polls had showed a surge in support for her party but they faced criticism for its treatment of the family of the murdered Paul Quinn.