For whom the bellwether tolls... key battlegrounds to watch today
These 12 constituencies will give an early clue of what the national picture will be, writes Shane Coleman of ‘Newstalk Breakfast’
AFTER 26 long days of canvassing, interminable leaders’ debates and a scatter of opinion polls, it’s all over bar the counting. Though there’s a hell of a lot of counting to do across the 39 constituencies.
In the vast majority of those constituencies, the final seat will still be in play well into today and beyond. The outcome of those contests will decide the make-up of the next government.
Here are 12 constituencies to watch as the tallies and votes come in — the dozen contests that will give an early indication of what the national picture will be when all 160 TDs are finally elected.
1) Carlow-Kilkenny
A huge contest for Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Sinn Fein and the Greens and one that will tell us a lot about each party’s fortunes nationally. FF will win two seats here with John McGuinness and Bobby Aylward. There is an FG seat, most likely John Paul Phelan.
But after that things get really interesting. A few weeks back Kathleen Funchion looked to be in serious trouble. She’s now 1-20 with the bookies — demonstrating how Sinn Fein and her fortunes have changed — and looks nailed on to win a seat. Keep an eye on the tallies of Funchion’s first-preference vote — she got 12.4pc of the first-preference votes in 2016. If she’s up in the high teens then SF is on for a very good day nationally.
The outcome of the final seat is even more interesting. FF came close to winning three here last time before Jennifer Murnane O’Connor lost out to FG’s Pat Deering. If FG is in the low 20s percentage wise nationally, it’s hard to see Deering holding on. The bigger threat to FF is likely to come from the Greens’ Malcolm Noonan. How the party goes in Carlow-Kilkenny — where it won a seat in 2007 — will tell a lot about how the Greens will do outside the capital.
If FF wins three here, it’s going to have a really good day nationally. Keep an eye on transfers if and when Deering goes out. Both he and Murnane O’Connor are from Carlow, an FG elimination could benefit FF. And this might not be the only constituency where that happens.
2) Cork North Central
With three of the TDs elected here four years ago not running, there’s a big element of unpredictability. Even without Jonathan O’Brien on the ticket, SF is guaranteed a seat — the party might be regretting not running a second candidate. FF’s recent by-election victor Padraig O’Sullivan should be fine too. But will the prospect of a Cork Taoiseach propel FF to a second seat here with Tony Fitzgerald?
If FF is going well in this constituency, it will suggest the party is going to have a good day nationally, despite the strength of SF. It’s also one to watch for Fine Gael. Colm Burke should take the seat vacated by Dara Murphy. But he isn’t rock solid and on a really bad day for FG, he could be in trouble. Sitting Solidarity TD Mick Barry is an outsider with the bookies, but might benefit if there is a large surplus from SF’s Thomas Gould.
3) Dublin Bay South
How bad will things get for FG? Will FF win enough seats to form a stable coalition government? Can Labour win back seats in former strongholds? And will SF break out of its traditional support base to win seats previously out of reach? Dublin Bay South is a great barometer for all these questions.
If FG is in the low 20s percentage-wise nationally, it can’t hold its two seats here — could Housing Minister Eoghan Murphy be a high-profile casualty? Green leader Eamon Ryan will romp home. FF’s Jim O’Callaghan isn’t safe but this is a seat his party really needs to win. SF’s Chris Andrews has a serious chance, but, if he makes it, it will be bad news for one of Labour’s big hopes, Kevin Humphreys.
4) Dublin Mid-West
SF’s Mark Ward pulled off a surprise win in the recent by-election but nobody expected the party to hold its two seats here come the General Election. Now most pundits expect them to do so. However, will the controversy over Conor Murphy’s comments on the murder of Paul Quinn damage SF in middle-class parts of Lucan? It could well do.
The hard left is under serious pressure from SF’s rise and none more so than sitting TD Gino Kenny of People Before Profit. Can he hang in there or will SF eat his lunch? John Curran of FF is a banker but this is another contest where the Fine Gael candidate (Emer Higgins) will be looking nervously over her shoulder. On a bad day for FG...
5) Dublin Rathdown
Could one of the biggest names in politics lose his seat here? The bookies certainly think so, with Shane Ross only fourth favourite in this three seater. This is also a constituency with a track record of turfing out previous poll toppers. It would be a huge win for FF if Shay Brennan prevails here. If he does the party is going have a really good day and is heading towards 60 seats.
6) Dublin South West
One constituency where SF’s rise might actually help the hard left. If Sean Crowe gets a big surplus here then Paul Murphy — seen as an outsider despite being a sitting TD — might benefit from transfers and see off Katherine Zappone and FF’s Charlie O’Connor. Definitely one FF seat here but if they win two then it’s a huge marker. Keep an eye on the Greens. Francis Noel Duffy should win a seat but if he’s struggling a bit, it will suggest that the Greens have underperformed expectations.
7) Kerry
Will the Healy Rae juggernaut hit a pothole? The recent TG4 poll suggests Danny is under pressure. It could well be that brother Michael’s surplus will see him home, but it’s not the certainty it was a few weeks back.
Look out also for the Battle of Tralee between FF’s Norma Foley and SF’s Pa Daly — one of the few straight head-to-head contests between the two parties. Daly will surely make it, but it’s still possible that FF will end up with two seats — which would be an enormous coup for the party.
8) Louth
The picture has got a lot clearer in the wee county over the past week. SF is on course to win two seats and FF’s Declan Breathnach and FG’s Fergus O’Dowd will join them — a 2-2 split between Dundalk and Drogheda. But the outcome of the final seat is huge for the future of Labour.
The party badly needs Ged Nash to win here but SF’s rise will have squeezed his vote. If the Greens’ Mark Dearey wins here, the party is going to have a bumper day, but independent TD Peter Fitzpatrick looks the bigger threat to Nash. If Labour lose here the party could be down around five seat territory — or lower.
9) Mayo
A real litmus test for the Sinn Fein surge. If the party really is even close to 25pc nationally, then this is a realistic target. There is one certain FF seat and one certain FG here and then it’s between FF, FG and SF for the final two seats. If SF takes this one, 30 seats is a realistic target. Given FG won four out of five seats here in 2011, a return of just one TD would speak volumes. The Greens had high hopes here, but Saoirse McHugh looks a long shot.
10) Meath East
Meath is a huge battleground in this election. In Meath West, SF is targeting the seat of its former TD Peadar Toibin and it has a serious chance of success. Across in Meath East, SF’s Darren O’Rourke is on course to unseat cabinet minister Regina Doherty, which would be a huge blow for FG. If Sinn Fein wins both these seats then it’s going to have an extraordinary day.
11) Sligo-Leitrim
One of a number of constituencies where Fine Gael is at serious risk of drawing a blank. With TD Tony McLoughlin departing, the party’s ticket isn’t strong but it would still be hugely embarrassing not to return a TD for this constituency.
The performance of Marian Harkin will tell a lot about whether the strong support for independents we have become accustomed to has waned. SF’s Martin Kenny is now safe, but FF’s two TDs could be in for an uncomfortable afternoon. If they’re struggling, it could suggest FF has underperformed nationally.
12) Wexford
Watch Sinn Fein here. With the party riding high in the polls, this five-seater should be a straight forward enough gain, particularly when Johnny Mythen missed out by just 52 votes in 2016. But he also lost his council seat last year and the Conor Murphy controversy might complicate matters — as does the presence of a popular Labour candidate (Brendan Howlin) and (even without Mick Wallace in the field) a strong Independent in Verona Murphy.
Two FF, one Labour and one FG looks likely with the fifth in play. The SF seat isn’t a given.
‘Will SF break out of its traditional support base to win seats?’