Fianna Fail will be torn in two like a child of divorcing parents
Dr Ciara Kelly
IF the real winner of the General Election — for exceeding all expectations — was Sinn Fein, then the real loser must surely be Fianna Fail.
Fine Gael was always going to take a kicking at the polls. And not just because of health and housing. People get sick of looking at the same government. It’s partly why a third term is incredibly difficult to secure. So desire for change was always going to put FG under pressure — and SF used that ‘Change’ mantra to great effect. But for Fianna Fail — who tried desperately to maintain the illusion throughout confidence and supply that it was still in opposition — to have done just as badly as Fine Gael and only as well as Sinn Fein is truly a bitter blow.
FF has always been a broad church. I’ve long thought it more closely resembles the character of the Irish people than any other political grouping; it’s not averse to a bit of ducking and diving when it suits. Some in the party have significant republican leanings. And some are entirely comfortable in the Galway tent quaffing champagne with big business.
Fianna Fail are us. Which is why up until now, there’s never been a FF leader who hasn’t been Taoiseach. FF are whatever you’re having yourself; rural Ireland champions, urban developer types. They’re all things to all men. And for a very long time it made them the most popular party in the country. But in an era of polarised politics, standing for everything leaves you open to the accusation — that you stand for nothing. FF propped up the outgoing FG government. FF appears to have been at least considering, going into coalition with SF. But when your party is flirting with opposing ends of the political spectrum — you run the distinct risk of being torn in two.
The real political horsetrading starts post-election as a new government is formed. A broad leftist alliance isn’t possible — the numbers aren’t there. Nor could a stable minority left-wing government survive, as the notion that FG or FF would support their policies isn’t plausible. (Although who else enjoyed watching Richard Boyd Barrett looking stunned at the idea of actually being in government — as opposed to being permanently in opposition this week?) So the reality is there’s only three possible outcomes from this election result and all of them will destroy FF.
FF can go into coalition with SF and some smaller party such as the Greens. And there are some in FF who might like that. But there are many on the right of the party to whom it would be anathema — which risks a split. It’s also probable political suicide for FF, as SF will cannibalise their vote in the same way they did the SDLPs. SF will ‘outrepublican’ the ‘republican party’. And would pull that element of FF into their own ranks. SF won’t be the mudguard for FF in any such coalition — it would most certainly be the other way around. SF wins. FF loses.
The next possible option is a FF/FG ‘grand coalition’, again with some another smaller party added on. There’s massive policy overlap between these two parties but this would be a particularly bitter pill for the grassroots of FF who truly believe themselves to be the opposition of FG, despite most people having to squint hard to see any differences between them. So this coalition would also likely lead to some revolt in FF and also a split. It could be seen as a win for FG — as FF chose them over SF. But equally, the ‘change’ voters — who’d see this as a rerun of the last Dail — would flock to SF in their droves. SF wins. FF loses.
Fine Gael, incidentally, has a lot to gain from this election result. It can ‘nobly’ eschew all coalition arrangements (the people want change!) and enter Leinster House as the only real opposition to both SF and FF. It would do very well from holding that position — as despite a historic 24pc of the population voting for SF, 76pc did not. And within that 76pc, there’s a significant number who will vote for ABSF. Anybody But SF.
Or the last option available is we can go back to the polls for a rerun. But much like the idea of a second Brexit referendum enraged Brexiteers, the idea that government formation was possible but not delivered will infuriate the electorate. FF will be blamed for this — as SF is clearly open to it. And no one expects FG and SF to do business — which says a lot about our perceptions about who the real opposition parties now are.
What will happen then is SF will run more candidates and likely increase their seat numbers. But knowing that
— the ABSF group will also vote in bigger numbers for FG.
FF, on the other hand, because of its perceived prevarication over SF, will likely see its party support further suffer, as SF has now become pivotal in Irish politics in a ‘for or against’ kind of way. In this rerun scenario — SF wins, FG wins and FF loses.
I always thought FF and FG would eventually coalesce, in a symbolic ending of our Civil War legacy politics. But I was only half-right. They may merge — but Civil War politics are alive and well — but the opposing sides going forward won’t be FF and FG. They’ll be SF and FG.
Irish politics is coming of age and evolving into opposing left and centrist factions — as is normal elsewhere. The fact that no one expects FG to go into coalition with SF shows that they are each other’s natural opposition. The fact that no one knows what FF will do shows that they’re no longer really the opposition to anyone.
A strong, left-wing party with good party discipline — and God knows SF have that — has never existed here. SF will now hoover up smaller left-wing parties and Independents. FG is actually well positioned going forward — as its voters know that a vote for FG will never mean a vote for SF. I believe Jim O’Callaghan and others when they say they want no part of a FF/SF coalition. I believe others in the party couldn’t stomach going into government fully with FG.
FF is set to be torn in two like the child of divorcing parents. That schism — the Fianna Downfall — is the real story of this election.