Keep your distance: it’s our only effective tool
WE are lucky to have the example of Italy on our doorstep. China was far away, had less information available to us and was harder to relate to. We can observe Italy and see how we compare quite easily.
Italy saw its first case of coronavirus six weeks ago.
Last Thursday, northern Italy’s most senior GP, Dr Roberto Stella, died from it. He and his colleagues have been valiantly fighting a losing battle since they moved from containment, to delay, to mitigation, and ultimately — in many areas — to complete chaos.
Reports coming from doctors in some hospitals say they are no longer treating anyone over the age of 65.
They are no longer treating anyone under the age of 65 with comorbidities (other illnesses), and they’re basically restricting treatment now to young, usually healthy patients — because when you can only save some, you save those with the best chance of survival.
Italy’s mortality rate from Covid-19 has hit 6.6pc — far in excess of what we had been previously warned — largely because they can’t actually treat all the patients there. Bear in mind, Italy has double the intensive care capacity we have.
What we all do now will determine how well we survive.
Last Thursday, the Taoiseach closed all schools, colleges, childcare facilities, public offices and cultural institutions. But the truth is that action is useless unless, now that they are closed, we all practice social distancing. By which I mean we keep more than six feet away from each other, we avoid coughing and sneezing on each other and, after we meet, we wash or sanitise our hands.
If we don’t do this, closing the schools will be ineffective. The virus will spread like wildfire and we will move to mitigation and full lock down.
Full lock down, to be clear, will mean mass quarantine — everything closed apart from food shops, pharmacies and health care facilities, and those restrictions enforced by law. The gardai. The army. The whole nine yards.
But if and when we get there, both containment and delay will have failed and we will be looking at thousands of patients sick with this virus and hundreds, if not thousands, of deaths.
Social distancing is the only real tool we have in our arsenal against the spread of coronavirus. I’m dismayed by reports of pubs packed with Cheltenham supporters all week and teens thronging Dundrum shopping centre and elsewhere. What is the point of sending kids home from school, only to have 15 of them hanging around together anyway?
I suspect the problem is that, in our attempt to keep calm and carry on, we are afraid to say it like it is. We have no immunity, treatment or vaccine against Covid-19. If we allow it to run amok through our population, we are looking into the abyss.
We keep hearing that 80pc of the population will get this as a mild to moderate illness and only 20pc (the old, the frail, the already sick) will be seriously ill.
That may be true, but these people are not expendable. These people are our parents, our families, our neighbours and our friends. And for anyone feeling blase because they don’t fall into those groups, age is only partially protective. There are cases of young, fit people in their twenties and thirties in ICU with this virus. You are more likely to be very sick if you are older but there are exceptions to every rule.
Young people are less likely to fall seriously ill, though. They will not be the main victims of this contagion, but they are important vectors of it. They may not die themselves, but they can spread it all to easily to those who will.
Parents need to recognise this and get their kids to stay home. Stop all sleepovers, play dates and meet ups. God knows we spend half our time trying to get them off their phones — well, now is the time to encourage them to chat with their friends online rather than face to face.
I am so proud of my former colleagues on the frontline who are risking their lives to help patients without a murmur of dissent — despite enormous workloads and fear for themselves and their families.
And I was proud to hear Tanaiste Simon Coveney say we need to look after the vulnerable at this time — unlike our UK neighbours who, through not closing schools or stopping mass gatherings, are thereby facilitating the spread.
But we all need to look out for each other now. Older people are afraid. They need to be supported in self-isolation. Teach them how to use social media. Help them to get groceries and medications in. Remember to have each other’s back.
Times like these bring out the best in us. And the worst — the theft of face masks and other personal protective equipment frontline staff need to treat patients is getting worse.
Work out positive things you can do at home. In China the sales of yoga mats, online games and condoms went through the roof. Learn a language. Take up a musical instrument. Read those books you kept meaning to get to. Isaac Newton developed calculus and the theory of gravity while in quarantine from the bubonic plague.
Go out for a walk, while still avoiding others. Take up gardening. We can put this time-out to really good use.
But the truth is this. We have a very, very narrow window where we can influence the trajectory of the disease here. Keep your kids home. Stop non-essential social engagement. And maintain rigorous social distancing. Act like everyone you meet has the virus and you don’t want to get it. This isn’t forever. There will be treatments and vaccines down the line. But it is for now.
Because if we don’t do this now, some of us will live to regret it. And sadly some of us won’t.