Could coronavirus crisis save anaemic leaders’ political lives?
How we react to a crisis, like Covid-19, can have a major impact on how we perceive our leaders, writes Eoin O’Malley
WE are in a very different country to the one that went to the polls on February 8. The election results gave no clear indication to the parties what the people wanted, other than a vague suggestion of ‘change’.
Last week saw the first real indications of the government that might be formed, and it’s either ‘historic’ or no change at all, depending on how you look at it. A Fianna Fail-Fine Gael-Green-plus coalition might seem historic, but it would not be that much different to the Government we have had for the past four years.
What has changed is the position of the party leaders. Though always appearing supremely confident, Mary Lou McDonald must have felt some self-doubt when she followed Sinn Fein’s poll numbers last year, but now she has a real prospect of becoming Taoiseach. Her only challenge is to how to cause an election without seeming to want one.
Mary Lou’s counterparts in the ‘big’ parties are not so secure.
Micheal Martin’s TDs were patient with his ‘don’t-rock-the-boat, we’re-responsible’ approach of the last nine years, but they’re getting antsy now. Martin was given the benefit of the doubt after a creditable performance in 2016, but Fianna Fail looked unprepared for last month’s election. It wasn’t quite an open goal, but Martin didn’t even hit the target.
There was no clear message from Fianna Fail as to what it was for. The front bench was either invisible or ill-prepared. The manifesto looked as if it was thrown together at the last minute, and panicky policies didn’t stand up to scrutiny. Fianna Failers are now wondering whether Micheal Martin is their Neil Kinnock. Well-meaning — but, ultimately, a loser.
He has been worse since the election. Fianna Fail has become hostage to the misfortunate commitments he gave in the election… no government with Sinn Fein, no government with Fine Gael. Because Martin has to get into government. Fianna Fail has never been in opposition for this long — and he will be removed if he doesn’t become Taoiseach.
So one of the commitments had to give, and Martin chose the wrong one. He is doubling down on his position that Sinn Fein is not suitable for government. That’s laudable in ways, but if he is thinking about his party’s future, it’s the wrong option.
Leaving Sinn Fein in opposition will allow it to eclipse Fianna Fail, depriving it of its traditional working-class support. And it feeds the Sinn Fein narrative of a political system that’s sewn up by cronies afraid of change.
Fianna Fail and Fine Gael’s decision to open talks has a lot of hurdles ahead, and seems to have stumbled at the first one. It was grossly incompetent that they announced they would begin the process to form a government with the Greens — without first seeking the Greens’ approval for the process. It won’t have helped that Fianna Failers were dismissing the Green suggestion of a national government as daft.
If Martin knows his party, he must know that a party Ard Fheis won’t pass a deal with Fine Gael, especially one in which Fianna Fail doesn’t provide the Taoiseach. Coronavirus is his only chance.
Martin will appeal — no doubt sincerely — to the national interest. At a time of a national emergency, we need a stable government. But if no Ard Fheis can be held because of the ban on mass gatherings, a ballot of members might be easier to control. There’ll be no stream of councillors excoriating him and Fine Gael reminding the members of why it’s a bad idea. A virtual Ard Fheis is still unlikely to pass a deal with Fine Gael, but it is his best hope.
Coronavirus could also end up saving Leo Varadkar. He was anaemic in the election campaign, but so far during the Covid-19 crisis he’s been clear and competent. In last Thursday’s address to the nation, he struck the right tone, mixing concern and reassurance with decisive action.
Emergencies tend to bring people together. We depend more on our governments, and look to them for comfort and direction. Opposition parties, in particular Sinn Fein, won’t be able to be too critical, and end up providing a supporting role.
If this is with us for months, rather than weeks, there will be no Dail to elect a new government, even if one were agreed — ministers and MPs across Europe are testing positive for coronavirus.
No new election can take place.
How we react to a crisis can have a major impact on how we perceive our leaders. The incompetent response to the wildfires in Greece, in the summer of 2018, ended Alexis Tsipras’s chances of re-election.
If Ireland is seen to deal with the Covid-19 crisis competently, Varadkar could emerge a strengthened figure, fit to fight another election in the autumn.
‘Opposition parties can’t appear to be too critical during national emergencies...’