Death throes of the centre in our politics
The question of who has the most to lose will loom once Covid-19 emergency is over, writes Jody Corcoran
AS Fianna Fail and Fine Gael edge closer to forming a government, the question arises as to who has most to lose should it all fall apart at the last moment, as many suspect could still happen — Micheal Martin or Leo Varadkar?
The short answer is Micheal Martin, who faces the prospect of a swift challenge to his leadership by some Fianna Fail TDs who prefer the two alternative arrangements on offer: a relatively short-lived government of national unity, or a coalition between Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein.
But Leo Varadkar would also be far from in the clear should it all turn to dust, as the voices in his ear at the moment should know by now, but fail to grasp, such is their belief in their own ability and the party’s general right to govern.
It should be noted that the ‘national unity’ proposal is really a mechanism by which to rinse Sinn Fein for government shortly thereafter, where its advocates in Fianna Fail, the Greens and others hope the popularity, or populism of Mary Lou McDonald’s party, will be diminished as it has been for others who have taken office at a difficult time.
In reality, then, the Fianna Fail supporters of the two alternative arrangements are on the same side, even though many among them would not like to admit to that, particularly those who support the national government idea but who dread the idea of Fine Gael and Sinn Fein in equal measure.
However, Leo Varadkar also would be seriously damaged should he be perceived to have stalled to collapse the potential of a deal now with other parties — the Greens, Labour and the Social Democrats — his intention to cause another election from which many in Fine Gael believe it would benefit.
In this regard, Fine Gael is nothing if not delusional as to the durability of the support it believes it commands as a result of the outgoing Government’s handling of the Covid-19 emergency, creditable though that handling has been.
It is my belief that Fine Gael’s election success in 2011, in which it won over 36pc of the vote, was a one-off to which it will never return; that the reality is the party’s core support is in the low 20pc share of the vote range and that anything over 25pc represents a good day for Fine Gael.
It is further my view that Fine Gael’s recent 34pc opinion poll rating may be misleading those in the party now advocating a bit of chicanery by Leo Varadkar to contrive a new election, and that these people never seem to learn the lesson repeatedly administered: quit while you are ahead.
Neither would it be accurate at this time to talk up the opposition within Fianna Fail to a ‘Covid Coalition’ with Fine Gael and others, including Independents.
It is true that, at a level, the Covid-19 emergency has provided camouflage for a deal that was in the offing anyway, but rejected by some in Fianna Fail shortly after the election.
But there was stronger opposition to a Grand Coalition in the immediate aftermath of the election in February than there is now.
And like every aspect of our lives, even that seems a long time ago now. The the new reality has shifted the mood within Micheal Martin’s party, not to say the country in general, although those fewer opposed to the deal put on the table on Friday are still capable of making their voices heard.
Eamon Ryan, the Greens leader, recently suggested that one day it would be possible again for a political party to be rewarded for going into government and not fleeing from the prospect as many seem to be doing now.
The depressing truth is that the destabilising manoeuvrings said to be going on behind the scenes in both parties actually betrays a loss of confidence within Fianna Fail and Fine Gael in the centre ground of Irish politics.
There are those within Fianna Fail and Fine Gael who want to pull up the flag planted in the centre ground by, among others, Micheal Martin and Paschal Donohoe and to leave it to others, including the so-called populists, to take up the reins.
What this really reveals is how traumatised the centrist parties and politicians in Ireland have become, as around the world, since the economic crash in 2008.
Instead of looking at events arising out of the coronavirus as an opportunity to re-establish the centre ground, to rewrite the social contract to finally meet the demands of its citizens — who as we see are willing to turn to Sinn Fein — the traumatised centre sees nothing but doom and foreboding ahead.
Last weekend Micheal Martin spoke to the Sunday Independent of a “new sobasically cial contract” on housing, health and climate change, among other things. It is to be assumed the framework document agreed by Fianna Fail and Fine Gael last Friday reflects this thinking. Furthermore, he referenced the opportunity now available to introduce a single-tier health system, for example.
Surely the Social Democrats — certainly somebody as policy driven as joint leader, Roisin Shortall — must see the prize now available, to create a lasting legacy on the public administration of this country by introducing such a health system?
More than that, Martin said: “We need to re-think how we live.” What a simple, yet powerful expression of an opportunity that must also appeal to the ideologies of the Greens and Labour.
Rather than fleeing from the prospect of government, you would expect such parties and politicians to be clamouring for the opportunity to implement radical and lasting social change in the areas closest to their hearts. I must admit to being baffled that they are not.
As to that question then, who has most to lose? Maybe we are seeing the final death throes of the centre gound of Irish politics, with the real losers those middle-ofthe-road voters who now risk seeing squandered a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for politicians to act on the idealism they must surely have brought into politics in the first place, before they all became jaded.