If Trump can’t manage to choose his battleground,

As the terrible US toll of Covid-19 rises, older voters could play a key role in deciding the next president, writes Lorcan Nyhan

THE US death toll from Covid-19 has hit 100,000. A staggering figure. A figure larger than the American fatalities in the Vietnam, Korean and Iraq wars, combined. A figure that shouldn’t become acceptable through met expectations or familiarity.

And it’s a figure that, despite the president’s best propaganda efforts, has started to weaken the Republican party’s decades-long advantage with older voters. The question now is, can the Democrats and Joe Biden turn this current temporary weakness into a long-term trend?

In 1930, Franklin Delano Roosevelt was running to be governor of New York. His Republican opponent, Charles Tuttle, was running on a platform of opposition to the rampant corruption in Tammany Hall, the Irish American-run cabal that dominated New York politics. Having opposed them early in his career, the pragmatic FDR had long since decided he couldn’t progress as a Democrat without their support so he was now deeply embedded with the Tammany machine — meaning he couldn’t credibly respond to the Republican attacks. So he didn’t. He instead ran a proactive campaign fighting for farm relief and full employment.

Resisting pressure to refute attacks and negate the Republican message, he told his adviser, Sam Rosenman: “Never let your opponent pick the battleground on which to fight — if he picks one, stay out of it and let him fight all by himself.” FDR won the election with the largest plurality in New York electoral history.

For four years, the Democrats have failed to follow their most successful political campaigner’s advice. Since 2016, Donald Trump has constantly and consistently picked the battleground. He’s dominated the narrative. He’s set the agenda. Whether it be the building of the wall, Hunter Biden’s relationship with a Ukrainian oil company or blaming China for the devastating impact of Covid-19, the president has picked the ground and the Democrats have rushed to join him.

This has been a colossal mistake. Following Trump down his self-created rabbit holes plays to his strengths. Joe Biden needs to pick his own battleground, and bait Trump into joining him there.

Up until a few months ago there was some debate as to what that field should be — but no longer. It’s very simple now — at least it is from a political campaigning perspective.

Donald Trump’s incompetence contributed to the deaths of thousands of Americans and killed the Obama economy — regardless of the shape of the recovery. Trump’s America has sacrificed thousands of the most vulnerable on the altar of the economy due to a combination of his incompetence, his envy of Barack Obama and his fear of losing.

That needs to be the constant focus of every Democrat. For the next six months they must make him deny it, make him justify it, make him answer on it. Recent history suggests that Trump will be allowed to turn the page on any of his failings and decisions — this can’t be permitted. The Democratic party, as a whole, can’t afford to get waylaid by every new Republican distraction.

A strategy that focuses on Trump’s Covid failings and the reasons behind them is one that will motivate the Democratic base — anger being a powerful motivator, that can be replicated in every swing state and, most promisingly, is one that has already started to bear fruit — impacting Trump’s support among a key demographic; the over-65s.

In 2016, the US president won voters over the age of 65 by seven percentage points.