Shane Coleman
Neither of the two party leaders has a great track record when it comes to being a team player, writes Shane Coleman
THE overriding emotion last Friday was relief, particularly for the Fianna Fail and Green legs of our new home-grown Troika. Then yesterday was a day of celebration for Micheal Martin (no leader in the history of the State — not Eamon de Valera, nor even Enda Kenny — has toiled for longer in opposition) and his new ministers. Today, they rest. And then to think, to quote one senior Government source this weekend, that the hard work is only starting. And that there may be trouble ahead.
After 140 days of toil putting together a Government, it’s the political equivalent of reaching the summit of Everest and then realising K2, Annapurna and Dhaulagiri all lie ahead.
The new Government does have some advantages. Sinn Fein won’t, and the ideologues’ wing of the Greens couldn’t admit it — but no incoming administration in the past 70 years has had the same novelty factor about it.
What odds would you have got on an FF-FG-Green Government when the election was first called? Were the bookies even quoting odds for this option? Not only are the two old adversaries of Irish politics coming together for the first time, but courtesy of the Greens and the most left wing programme for government ever, they are on a mission to change large parts of how we live our lives.
But against that, no incoming government in modern times has faced into such daunting circumstances. Not even Fine Gael and Labour in 2011, when much of the heavy lifting had been done by the doomed Fianna FailGreen coalition. Enda Kenny and Co ‘only’ had to save the economy. Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and the Greens have to do that — plus reform health, solve the housing crisis... oh, and save the planet, or at least our tiny part of it.
Large parts of the economy still lie dormant due to Covid-19. Unemployment remains at record levels. Hundreds of thousands of people are being paid a special unemployment payment that is two thirds higher than the normal welfare rate. Many more are being paid full salaries for doing little or no work. The budget deficit is growing rapidly by the hour. And our health service is still largely geared towards fighting one deadly battle. None of this is sustainable.
All these issues will have to be addressed, sooner or later. Really difficult decisions lie ahead. What odds the reform of the Pandemic Unemployment Payment being the first big row of the new administration?
Sinn Fein, the hard left parties and even Labour, will be rubbing their hands with glee at that prospect, and at the ratcheting up of carbon taxes further down the line. They know there are any number of potential water charges-type issues in trying to sort out the current mess we have been landed in. And they will ruthlessly seek to exploit them.
Three may well be, as some have argued in recent days, the magic number when it comes to coalition, offering great stability and less potential for face-offs than a two-party government. Consensus will almost be the default position. It worked particularly well when Fine Gael, Labour and Democratic Left harmoniously co-existed in power from the end of 1994 to 1997.
But that requires good relationships between the key figures. The existing one between Micheal Martin and Leo Varadkar is said to be tetchy at the best of times. And with both men likely to be desperate to promote their individual party identities — and under huge pressure from their grassroots to do so — that’s going to be very difficult to change.
Neither of the two leaders has a great track record when it comes to being a team player. Rightly or wrongly, many Fianna Fail TDs perceive that the party has been run by a small clique around Martin. Then there’s Leo Varadkar’s habit of saying exactly what he thinks. It can be refreshing and voters like it. But it hasn’t always gone down well with Cabinet colleagues — ask Alan Shatter.
The outgoing Taoiseach has also had an uncanny ability to get under Fianna Fail’s skin — from his attack on Bertie Ahern when only a wet week in the Dail to last February when he likened electing Martin as Taoiseach to putting John Delaney back in charge of the FAI.
Perhaps, like one-time antagonists John Bruton and Dick Spring 25 years ago, they’ll surprise everyone by working very well together. Fighting alongside each other in the Government trenches does bring people together.
The more cuddly Eamon Ryan (inset) can also be a salve or a balm for any open wounds that materialise. He gets on with both Martin and Varadkar and, almost uniquely in Irish politics, resists the temptation to engage in point-scoring. But what if he isn’t leader in a few weeks? His position seems stronger following last Friday’s surprisingly strong endorsement for going into Government. However, he is far from guaranteed to see off the challenge to his leadership from Catherine Martin.
Ryan would no doubt dismiss any suggestion that he would be a more malleable figure when it comes to dealing with the two big beasts — and to be fair, look at how he completely outfoxed the anti-coalition wing of the party over the past fortnight.
But Green members may yet see Catherine Martin as a more formidable presence for the party at the top table — certainly that’s how she will be pitching her leadership bid.
What then? Would the new, far less experienced, leader be more open to influence from those in the party who would prefer Government with Sinn Fein and People Before Profit than Fianna Fail and Fine Gael? And what of those ideologues? Will they prove a destablising presence or will the Green leadership be able to astutely use them for leverage with its coalition partners? Either way, there are obvious pitfalls.
It’s been 140 days since the election
Even if the key personalities in the three parties manage to gel, their prospects still hugely depend on Covid and the economic recovery. There has been an extraordinary sense of national solidary these past four months — hugely benefiting Fine Gael as the party in power. But that can only last so long.
Shutting down the economy, while drastic, was an easy decision. Opening it up is proving far trickier. How schools reopen — and the extent of that reopening — in September will present serious challenges for the new Government, not least when it comes to dealing with the teaching unions.
The same goes for managing the health service. A spike in cases of Covid, alongside a flu outbreak, could push our hospitals to breaking point and a winter of serious discontent. The ‘we’re all in this together’ message may end up wearing a bit thin.
Then there’s the public finances. We’re all Keynesians now and there’s plenty of scope for the Government to borrow and throw money at problems for the next year or two. But at some point the international markets will need to see evidence that we’re making ends meet.
If we’re going to reform the
7.9pc The expected contraction of the economy this year
health service, build houses, create a green economy and protect social welfare, it won’t come cheap. Either taxes are going to have to increase or spending will have to be curtailed in the coming years. It’s risible to label that austerity, but that won’t stop the Opposition, and indeed people close to Government, doing so. Managing expectations — fuelled by angry keyboard warriors on social media — will be a huge challenge for Martin, Varadkar and whoever’s leading the Greens.
They’re going to need a large dollop of luck — all governments do, but more so this time due to Covid. The Government’s first 15 and its subs’ bench is far stronger than the Opposition’s, but that won’t matter a damn if the economy continues to tank and there’s chaos in our hospitals.
They’re also going to need achievements. They’ve ambitiously promised a brave new world. To hold off Sinn Fein at the next election, voters are going to have to feel at least some of that — particularly improvements in housing, health and the green agenda — has been delivered.
So much can go right. So much can go wrong. There may be trouble ahead? There will be. But let’s see them face the music and dance.